4th CEVI Energy School October 10-11, 2011 Bilkent Hotel Ankara

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1 4th CEVI Energy School October 10-11, 2011 Bilkent Hotel Ankara Objective Europe has been engaged in a debate aimed at building an integrated and competitive energy market since the early 1990s. Leaving the previous nationally oriented energy frameworks models aside, the European Union has taken up the responsibility to develop a strategic policy to change current trends. A truly competitive, single European electricity and gas market is expected to be a free market and open to competition of Europe-wide operating companies. Financial markets have responded to these changes by developing new financial products and markets. The market characteristics of physical energy markets that are opening up are fundamentally different from financial markets which are often rather mature. Although physical energy markets and financial energy markets are closely related, they behave differently. The differences in their characteristics and behavior are substantial, and the effects on price formation and exchange processes are complex. Both risk managers and investment managers need to understand what these differences are and how these differences impact both on investment decisionmaking and effective risk management approaches. As energy supply is still seen as being vital at a country level, the same counts for regulatory body staff. Who should attend? This intensive and interactive training course is designed for practitioners active in energy markets, both the physical market and financial markets. As its primary objective, the course aims to provide a practical understanding of the behavior of energy markets and the risk management implications of physical and financial markets.

2 The target group of students are employees working in the energy area, such as energy companies, energy markets, regulatory bodies, governments, etc. They will be interested in the finance perspective that CEVI attaches to energy issues. Date of the Courses The courses will take in October 10-11, 2011 in Bilkent Hotel, Ankara Contact Persons: Prof. Dr. Mehmet Baha Karan Hacettepe University, Beytepe Campus Phone: Prof. Dr. Andre Dorsman President, CEVI, Amsterdam the Netherlands Course Program Ankara, October 10-11, 2011 Monday, October hours opening Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe University Prof. André Dorsman, president of CEVI hours Basic introduction to energy economics and Turkey Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) This course will help professionals in the Turkish power and gas sector to base their decision making on solid principles from energy economics. Topics to be covered: o Energy markets and energy prices. o Development and organization of spot and futures markets in energy.

3 o Competition in wholesale energy markets. o Investment incentives and market structure. o Forward contracts, vertical integration and other market power mitigation measures. The relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey will be presented and discussed. Price formation on the Power Market in a transmission constrained power system and the impact of market power Practical and relevant with updates of the latest developments in the Turkish energy market. Format will be half instruction and half exercise where the participants can work on finding solutions to their day to day challenges hours Lunch hours Energy and Political Risk Prof. Dr. John Simpson, Curtin University The influences of political risk in oil and gas stock market sectors in the EMU, UK and USA. A systemic composite political risk indicator for country oil and gas stock market sectors adjusting for country size and income effects. Financing international trade in natural gas using bank financing mechanisms (eg letters of credit) whilst controlling for country and political risk (managing international credit risk in gas exports). Managing political and country risk in the export of large natural gas projects and capital equipment using government export finance and insurance agencies (bond support, direct finance and buyer credit, insurance against buyer insolvency and political risk). Tuesday, October hours Multi criteria decision analysis in energy Prof. Dr. Aydın Ulucan (Hacettepe University) Non-parametric efficiency analysis in energy and environment issues o Data Envelopment Analysis o Turkey application on energy efficiency MCDA approaches in energy projects evaluation process

4 o o o o Promethee and Turkey energy application Electre and Turkey energy application Utadis multiple criteria sorting methodology and its application to the Turkish energy sector A multiple criteria energy decision support system hours Lunch hours Short-term electricity demand projections in practice Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Practical and applied short-term electricity demand projections are vital for power generators and operators, namely for unit commitment and economic dispatch of generating units. This course will help professionals to base their short-term demand projections on sound principles, to safeguard their share in the value of daily power generation of around 50 million US$ in Turkey. A practical and intuitive decomposition of demand into: o hourly variation within the day, o daily variation within the week and o seasonal variation within the year. Role of special days, like holidays and bayrams, in reducing the forecasting error will be discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of including the link between weather data and hourly demand will be discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of univariate methods will be pointed out, which are short term demand projections of using past demand data only. Bottom-up approaches using short-term electricity consumption projections on a sectoral basis, will be presented. Practical and relevant with updates of the latest developments in the Turkish power market. Format will be half instruction and half exercise where the participants can work on finding solutions to their day to day challenges hours Panel Discussion

5 Prof. ANDRE Dorsman, Başkan, CEVI Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe Universitesi İşletme Bölümü Prof. Dr. Aydın Ulucan, Hacettepe University Prof. Dr. John Simpson, Curtin University Dr. Wietze Lise, Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant Paul Pottuijt, Gen, Senior Energy Consultant Biography Aydın Ulucan is professor of quantitative methods in Hacettepe University, Department of Business Administration. He received the Ph.D. and M.B.A. in Business from Hacettepe University and B.A. in Mechanical Engineering from Middle East Technical University. His primary research interests involve multicriteria decision making, performance evaluation, portfolio optimization and applications of quantitative modeling techniques to managerial decision making problems. His research has been published in Omega, Applied Economics, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, New Medit and some other journals. He is author of two textbooks Operations Research and Portfolio Optimization. In 2004 and 2005 Dr. Ulucan received the Encouragement Award in METU Prof. Muhan Soysal Innovation in Management Education. His teaching responsibilities are in the areas of operations research and quantitative methods for business at the undergraduate, MBA and doctoral levels. He has taught many executive-development seminars on the subjects of quantitative methods, performance measurement, portfolio optimization and project management. Dr. Ulucan has served as a consultant for several public and private companies. He is currently executive board member of Finance Society. He was the charter member of Hacettepe University Financial Research Center. Dr. Ulucan has served as the vice chairman of Hacettepe University, Department of Business Administration between 2006 and Professor, Dr John Simpson is an academic in the School of Economics and Finance at Curtin University, in Western Australia. His PhD in the field of financial economics was obtained from the University of Western Australia (His Bachelor of Economics degree was also obtained from that University and his Master of Commerce degree (by research) was obtained from Curtin University). John is a Fellow of the Finance and Securities Institute of Australasia and a professional member of the Economist s Society of Australia. His academic experience spans 20 years in the areas of teaching and learning and in research and development. A three year secondment as an Associate Professor at the University of Wollongong in Dubai Business School was undertaken from 2003 to Whilst

6 working in Dubai he also became Vice President of the non-profit making Australian Business in the Gulf Association, the largest Australian business association of its type in the Middle East. John has travelled extensively during his career, including a stint with the United Nations Development Program in Mongolia, in partnership with Curtin University, for academic development of Mongolian University lecturers. He is a board member of the Centre for Energy and Value and the Editor of the Energy and Value Newsletter. He has around 40 articles in internationally refereed journals and around 5 book chapters on research in financial economics. He has presented many research papers at numerous financial economics conferences throughout the world. His areas of research interest broadly relate to international banking, international finance, international business risk and risk management and the financial economics of energy and value, more specifically in the areas of oil and gas pricing, energy market efficiency and the influence of political risk on energy markets. Dr. Wietze Lise is a Senior Energy Consultant at the Energy & Environment unit in Ecorys and he also works as a freelance consultant. He has a graduate diploma in mathematical engineering from Twente University, Holland and he holds a PhD in Economics from Delhi School of Economics. His main work experience is in power and gas markets and long term price projections both in Europe and Turkey. However, he also has sound knowledge and experience in energy-economic modelling, economics of climate change, and resource management. During his eighteen years of research and consultancy experience, he worked in Holland at several research and consultancy companies who were leaders in the energy and environment field. In addition to that, he worked together with multidisciplinary teams both in Europe and Turkey, and acquired, produced and managed a myriad of projects. He has more than thirty published and widely cited scientific articles in various international journals. Since 2006, Wietze Lise has focused his research and consultancy work especially on the Turkish energy market and he lives and works in Turkey.

7 Eğitim Programı (Turkish Version) CEVI, Ankara, Bilkent Hotel Ankara, Ekim, 2011 Pazartesi 10 Ekim Açılış Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe Universitesi Prof. André Dorsman, Başkan, CEVI Enerji Ekonomisi ve Türkiye Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Bu ders, Türkiye de elektrik ve gaz sektöründe çalışan profesyonellerin, enerji ekonomisi bilgisi ve ışığı altında, sektörde her alanda karar verme yeteneklerini temel prensiplere oturtabilmelerine yardımcı olacaktır. Ele alınacak başlıklar: o Enerji piyasaları ve enerji fiyatları. o Enerjide spot ve vadeli piyasaların geliştirilmesi ve organizasyonu. o Toptan enerji piyasalarında rekabet. o Yatırım teşvikleri ve pazar yapısı. o Vadeli işlem sözleşmeleri, dikey entegrasyon ve diğer piyasa gücünü azaltma önlemleri. Türkiye'nin enerji tüketimi ve GSYİH arasındaki ilişki sunulup tartışılacaktır. İletimin yetersiz olduğu sistemlerde fiyat oluşturulması ve piyasa gücünün etkisi. Ders pratiktir ve Türk enerji piyasasındaki en yeni ve güncel gelişmeleri içermektedir. Ders katılımcıların pratik uygulamalar yapabilmeleri açısından hem sunum ve hem de egzersizler içermektedir Öğle Yemeği Enerji ve Siyasi Risk Prof. Dr. John Simpson, Curtin Üniversitesi, Avustralya

8 Avrupa Para Birliği, ABD ve İngiltere de petrol ve gaz hisse senedi sektörlerine siyasi riskin etkisi. Petrol ve gaz hisse senedi sektörlerinde ülke büyüklüğü ve gelir etkisine göre düzeltilmiş sistemik karma politik risk faktörü göstergesi. Ülke riski ve siyasi risk kontrol edilerek banka finansman mekanizması kullanılarak uluslararası doğalgaz ticaretinin finansmanı Devlet sigorta finansmanı ve sigortası kuruluşlarından yararlanılarak büyük doğalgaz projelerinin ve sermaye mallarının ihracatı sırasındaki politik ve ülke riskinin yönetilmesi Salı 11 Ekim Enerji alanında çok kriterli karar verme yaklaşımları Prof.Dr. Aydın Ulucan (Hacettepe Üniversitesi) Enerji ve çevre konularında parametrik olmayan etkinlik analizi o Veri Zarflama Analizi o Türkiye elektrik sanayii uygulaması Enerji projelerinin değerlendirilmesi sürecinde MCDA yaklaşımları o Promethee ve Türkiye enerji uygulaması o Electre ve Türkiye enerji uygulaması o Utadis çok kriterli sınıflandırma metodolojisi ve Türkiye enerji sektörü uygulaması Enerji sektörüne yönelik çok kriterli karar destek sistemi geliştirilmesi Öğle Yemeği Pratik ve Uygulanabilir Kısa-vadeli Elektrik Talep Projeksiyonları: Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Pratik ve uygulanabilir kısa vadeli elektrik talep projeksiyonları, güç jeneratörleri ve santral operatörler için (özellikle birim bağlılığı ve üretim birimlerinin ekonomik sevkiyatı açısından) hayati önem taşımaktadır.

9 Bu ders, kısa vadeli talep projeksiyonlarını sağlam bir altyapıya yerleştirebilmeleri ve Türkiye'de yaklaşık 50 milyon US $ değerindeki günlük enerji üretimindeki paylarını koruyabilmeleri açısından profesyoneller için son derece faydalı bir eğitim vermektedir. Talebin pratik ve sezgisel bir yaklaşımla aşağıdaki şekilde ayrıştırılması incelenecektir: o gün içinde saatlik varyasyon, o hafta içinde günlük değişim ve o yıl içinde mevsimsel değişim. Tahmin hatalarını azaltabilmek amacıyla tatil ve bayram gibi özel günlerin rolü ele alınacak ve değerlendirilecektir. Hava durumu verileri ve saatlik talep arasındaki bağlantıların dahil edilmesinin getireceği avantajlar ve dezavantajlar ele alınacaktır. Tek değişkenli yöntemlerin (sadece geçmişteki talep dataları üzerine kurulmuş olan kısa vadeli elektrik talep projeksiyonları) avantajları ve dezavantajları izah edilecektir. Kısa vadeli sektörel bazda elektrik tüketimi projeksiyonları kullanılarak, aşağıdan yukarıya programlamayla ilgili yaklaşımlar sunulacaktır. Ders pratiktir ve Türk enerji piyasasındaki en yeni ve güncel gelişmeleri içermektedir. Ders katılımcıların pratik uygulamalar yapabilmeleri açısından hem sunum ve hem de egzersizler içermektedir Panel Prof. ANDRE Dorsman, Başkan, CEVI Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe Universitesi İşletme Bölümü Prof. Dr. Aydın Ulucan, Hacettepe University Prof. Dr. John Simpson, Curtin University Dr. Wietze Lise, Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant Paul Pottuijt, Gen, Senior Energy Consultant