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1 Market Research T U R K E Y REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW FIRST HALF 2008

2 Copyright 2008 Colliers International Turkey. All rights reserved.

3 T U R K E Y Foreword in Istanbul since 1998 Dear Clients & Friends, First of all, I would like to thank you for your interest in Colliers International s publications and services. From the very beginning, back when the company was established in 1998, we have had only one goal: to build strong, long-lasting business relationships. It is now my great pleasure to be able to say that we have achieved what we had planned. Most of the names in our clients portfolio are more than just clients - they have become our friends. What we know about friendship is that you need to take care of your friends, but even more importantly, you must never let them down. Colliers has worked hard to keep that in mind in all of our dealings with our clients, and I think that this approach has been the key to our success. Colliers never-ending dedication to our clients and partners encourages reciprocity, while our team approach strengthens individual achievements. Our corporate philosophy and our unparalleled team members allow us to easily achieve what others consider the impossible. The support that we give our staff, along with their natural talent and dedication, enables them to excel in every aspect of their work. We encourage professional and personal development, and our team members are constantly mentoring and supporting those on their way up. The result of all of this is that, without fail, Colliers International is able to provide expert service that not only exceeds our clients expectations, but reassures them to know that they, along with their projects, are in good hands. Kerim Cin MANAGING PARTNER COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL TURKEY Colliers International TURKEY

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5 R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T R E V I E W Table of Contents ECONOMIC OVERVIEW OFFICE MARKET INDUSTRIAL MARKET RETAIL MARKET HOTEL MARKET RESIDENTIAL MARKET LEGAL OVERVIEW Colliers International TURKEY

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7 T U R K E Y Economic Overview Economic Outlook of Turkey Despite the rising tension in domestic politics before and during the elections, the primary mover of the Turkish economy has continued to be the global economic dynamics in Volatility in financial markets and its repercussions on real economic activity has come as a result of global economic turbulences. International Economic Developments As is well known, the main factor behind the July-August 2007 global turbulence in financial markets was the delinquencies in the subprime mortgage market of the U.S economy. Credit conditions have tightened as a result of increasing concerns about the fallout from strains in the U.S sub-prime mortgage market. Tightened credit conditions were felt in developed countries whereas robust expansions continued in developing countries. The baseline projections for global growth have been moderately reduced following the recent turbulence. According to IMF projections, the global economy will grow by 4.1% in 2008 which is reduced from an earlier projection of 4.8%. Projections for growth in the US and European Union economies received heavy downward revisions. However, for most emerging markets and developing countries, the downward revisions were relatively low. For example, China is expected to grow 10% in Strong domestic demand, along with the Olympic Games, is likely to be the engine of growth both in this country and the region. Thus, even if the baseline scenario is realized, the slowdown in Western Europe, which is the biggest trade partner of Turkey, is likely to limit Turkey s exports in the coming quarters. However, if the disorder in financial markets deepens and triggers a more pronounced global slowdown, it would have drastic consequences both on the exports of and capital inflows to Turkey. Macroeconomic Targets for 2008 The government has announced its macroeconomic targets for At a glance, the government seems to expect a modest growth and disinflation for the year. The target for the GDP growth and CPI inflation are 5.5% and 4 percent respectively. The unemployment rate, current account deficit and budget deficit are estimated to be similar to The total GDP is expected to be $520 billion USD which would bring per capita income close to $7000. However, we should note that TÜİK will restate GDP figures in the first few months of the year. Financial markets expect an approximately 20 percent upward revision in the figures. If this is correct, there will be an improvement in major macroeconomic variables like per capita income or the share of the current account deficit and budget deficit in total GDP. Economic Growth The average growth rate of the Turkish economy was 7.5 percent between the years of The growth rate has fallen to below 5% in the past five quarters. The main reason behind the slowdown in the economy was the May-June 2006 turbulence in the world economy. Capital outflow from Turkey has resulted in a sharp depreciation of YTL and a surge in interest rates. That has reduced the growth rate of private consumption expenditures to almost one percent from about ten percent since then. The growth rate is announced as 2 percent for the 3Q This Colliers International TURKEY

8 Continued private construction projects and public investments were the major source of construction growth. is the lowest rate in the past five years. The slowdown in industrial output and the drastic fall in agricultural output due to drought seem to be the main factors behind the disappointing figures. Construction was the highest growth sector between H (First half). The disinflation process, which has allowed lower interest rates after 2004, seems to be the major dynamic behind the strong growth figures in construction. Despite the negative consequences of the turbulence in the world financial markets, the growth rate of the sector was 16.5 percent and 15.7 percent respectively in the first and second quarters of However, strong construction growth does not always mean that the demand for housing is also strong. Continued private construction projects and public investments were the major source of construction growth. A falling growth in housing loans extended to the private sector indicated a slowdown in housing demand. This is reflected in the third quarter (2007) growth figure of the construction sector. The growth rate fell to 5.4 percent, which is significantly less than in the previous quarters. Housing loans were very limited until The graph shows the trends in real housing loans, which is obtained by deflating nominal figures with the CPI housing index. Real housing loans increased substantially between January 2005 and May However, the May-June 2006 turbulence in financial markets significantly raised interest rates. That stopped the growth in loans for almost a year. There was a recovery in loans following the elections in mid-2007 till the end of the year. It seems to be have been stopped by the reappearance of turbulence in the world economy since the beginning of Hence, if the stability in the world economy is re-established, the construction sector would attain high growth rates again. Leading indicators suggest that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2007 is likely to be similar to the third quarter. For example, the average growth of industrial output in the last three months of the year was around 5 percent. This figure strongly suggests a growth figure of around 4 percent for the last quarter of the year. As has been in the previous months, export-oriented sectors like electrical machinery and vehicles made major contributions to the industrial output in the fourth quarter. The slowdown in machinery and equipment should be carefully followed, as it is an early indicator of investment demand. On the other hand, early indicators of domestic demand also support the signals in indus- TABLE 1 MACROECONOMIC TARGETS MACROECONOMIC TARGETS 6 Colliers International TURKEY * 2008** GDP (Current Prices, mil. TRL) 576, , ,266 GDP (Current Prices, bil. $) GDP Growth Rate Per Capita Income ($) 5,519 6,625 6,964 Per Capita Income (PPP, $) 8,577 9,073 9,681 Unemployment Rate (%) Exports (FOB, bil. $) Imports (CIF, bil. $) Current Account Deficit / GDP Primary Surplus / GDP (IMF Defined) PSBR / GDP GNP Deflator (Percentage Change) CPI - Year End * Forecast, ** Target Source: DPT

9 trial activity. Despite the improvement in consumer confidence in the third quarter of 2007, there has been a significant deterioration since then. The current sentiment of consumers suggests a relatively weak domestic demand in the months ahead. Some sub-questions of indexes indicate consumption will fall in the near future. For example, according to TÜİK (TURKSTAT), the consumer confidence index and probability of a family buying a home in the next 12 months is low compared to the beginning of the year. High interest rates, political risks as well as turbulence in world financial markets would be the main factors behind the consumer s preference. Inflation Annual CPI inflation in 2007 has been realized as 8.4 percent whereas the year-end inflation target of The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) was 4 percent. CBT failed to hit the target in the last two consecutive years. The target for 2008 was determined as 4 percent as well. Nevertheless, CBT seems to believe that the target is unattainable. A recent inflation report published by the bank predicts the year-end inflation will between the percent bands. It s mid-point is 5.5 percent. High oil prices and food prices due to drought are thought to be the main factors behind the slowing down disinflation process. The good news that can be captured from the inflation data is that there are some signs of falling rigidity in the services sector prices. All in all, as the divergence of actual inflation is more significant than the target, market participants expect a gradual rather than an aggressive monetary policy easing by the central bank. The authorities of the bank also signal this. Balance of Payments In the first 11 months of 2007, the export growth rate continued to accelerate while the import growth rate first decelerated than accelerated. The strong demand from the EU and the appreciation of the Euro against the US dollar has bolstered exports since mid The slowdown in domestic demand curbed import growth in the first half of However, rising oil prices re-accelerated import. This is reflected as deterioration in current account balance by November despite the solid improvements in tourism revenues. The current account deficit fluctuates at record levels at around 7.5 percent of GNP. That is increasing the vulnerability of the Turkish economy to external shocks like the turbulence in the world financial markets and geopolitical risks. Turkey has not faced a financing problem regarding the current account deficit GRAPH 1 - REAL HOUSING LOANS (Thousand TRL) Jan.03 Apr.03 Jul.03 O ct.03 Jan.04 Apr.04 Jul.04 O ct.04 Jan.05 Apr.05 Jul.05 O ct.05 Jan.06 Apr.06 Jul.06 O ct.06 Jan.07 Apr.07 Jul.07 O ct.07 Jan.08 Source: TCMB Real Housing Loans (Thousand TRL) Colliers International TURKEY 7

10 over the past few years, thanks to the global glut of savings. There has been a substantial capital inflow to Turkey in recent years. The financing structure over this period was substantially composed of direct investments and long-term loans extended to the private sector and banks. It amounted to 16.7 billion USD and 29.2 billion USD respectively in the first 11 months of the year. Foreign direct investments reached about $20 billion in 2006, accounting for over one-third of capital inflows. The figure is likely to be similar in Apart from privatizations and mergers, nonresidents buying real estate in Turkey stands as another significant item within direct investment inflows. The net real estate buying of foreigners reached to about $2.5 billion by November 2007 (year on year). It was $2.7 billion a year ago. Hence the source of the relative slowdown in housing demand is external as well as domestic. GRAPH 2 - ANNUAL CPI INFLATION (%) (target) 4 Overall Assessment One of the major risks of the Turkish economy would be the negative development in international liquidity conditions and credit markets. High volatility in financial markets is expected in the near term. However, a sharp slowdown on global economic growth is not perceived as the most likely scenario. According to baseline scenarios of international institutions like IMF and OECD, stability in world financial markets and modest growth will be re-established in the second half of the This scenario also predicts that capital inflows to emerging markets are expected to continue in the medium term. However, high volatility and modest growth are also expected for emerging countries. Whether or not Turkey will decouple from this short and medium-term trends and the outcome will depend on domestic political dynamics and the enthusiasm of the government in initiating structural reforms of the economy. The baseline scenario of the Turkish financial markets is that the Turkish economy will recouple with other emerging markets. According to market surveys, year-end inflation and economic growth will be around 6.5 and 4.8 percent respectively. The market also expects interest rates to fall to 14 % in All in all, it suggests a modest increase in domestic private consumption as well as demand for real estate in Source: CBT Annual CPI Inflation (%) TABLE 2 GROWTH IN TERMS OF EXPENDITURES GROWTH IN TERMS OF EXPENDITURES q q q q q q q3 Private Consumption Public Consumption Investments Export Import Source: TurkStat 8 Colliers International TURKEY

11 I S T A N B U L ı z m ı r Office Market Overview Vacancy rates, which decreased in the first half of 2007 as no new office stock was created to meet the demand in the market, continued to fall in the second half of The increasing demand for offices, in the absence of a steady supply rate, has had an effect on rent amounts; hence, the average rent amounts have continued to increase. Many companies which would normally select qualified offices have continued to choose B Class office buildings with insufficient car parking capacity and infrastructure facilities due to the lack of A class office supply. The occupancy rates and prices in relation to B and C Class office buildings situated in the central business districts have continued to rise with the increasing demand. Demand and Activity The companies that were not able to meet their office needs in the central business districts in 2007 have moved towards such alternative areas as the Ümraniye and Airport districts. Avoiding the risk of seeking a new office building, companies residing in the central business districts of Istanbul, such as Levent, Zincirlikuyu, Etiler, Maslak and Gayrettepe, have had to stay in their existing offices. 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% GRAPH 3 - ıstanbul A class offıce vacancy rates (in %) Airport Altunizade Kavacık G.Tepe - Şişli - E.Tepe Kozyatağı Maslak Taksim Levent E ler Ümraniye 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter Source: Colliers International Turkey 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% GRAPH 4 - ıstanbul B class offıce vacancy rates (in %) Airport Altunizade Kavacık G.Tepe - Şişli - E.Tepe Kozyatağı Maslak Taksim Levent E ler Ümraniye 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter Source: Colliers International Turkey Colliers International TURKEY 9

12 GRAPH 5 - ıstanbul AVERAGE A class offıce RENTS ($/m 2 /month) In the Istanbul office market, where demand is still generally real, the need for qualified office buildings located in central business districts continues to prevail. When the general vacancy rates are analyzed, it can be seen that vacancy rates, particularly on the European side of the city, decreased considerably in the last quarter of It can also be said that the demand on the Asian side is higher for A class office buildings. A Class Vacancy As can be understood from the chart, apart from the A class offices located in the Ümraniye district, vacancy rates in other districts have continued to fall in the last quarter of the previous year. The reason that the vacancy rates in the Ümraniye district have not decreased is that there is a supply of new offices in the district. As the vacancy rates in such districts as Levent, Maslak, Zincirlikuyu, Etiler and Esentepe have decreased considerably, companies have begun to move towards the Airport district, which is leading to a major fall in the vacancy rates there. Source: Colliers International Turkey Source: Colliers International Turkey Airport Altunizade Kavacık G.Tepe - Şişli - E.Tepe Kozyatağı Maslak Taksim Levent E ler Ümraniye 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter GRAPH 6 - ıstanbul AVERAGE B class offıce RENTS ($/m 2 /month) Airport Altunizade Kavacık G.Tepe - Şişli - E.Tepe Kozyatağı Maslak Taksim Levent E ler Ümraniye 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter A Class Rent Rent prices continued to increase in the last quarter of While the current average rent for A class office buildings on the European side has exceeded $22 USD/m2/month, this figure is around $15/m2/month on the Asian side of the city. No significant leases have been observed on the European side in the last quarter, as there are not sufficient office stocks in the central business districts. Nevertheless, the requested rent prices for A class qualified office buildings have exceeded $25/m²/month, and this amount is over $35/ m²/month for new office buildings located in Levent and Gayrettepe. 60 GRAPH 7 - ISTANBUL PRIME OFFICE RENTS ($/m 2 /month) Source: Colliers International Turkey Airport Altunizade Kavacık G.Tepe - Şişli - E.Tepe Kozyatağı Maslak Taksim Levent E ler Ümraniye 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter 10 Colliers International TURKEY

13 Source: Colliers International Turkey 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% GRAPH 8 - ISTANBUL GENERAL VACANCY (in %) Europe A Class Asia A Class Europe B Class Asia B Class 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter GRAPH 9 - ISTANBUL GENERAL RENTS ($/m 2 /month) Forecast As there will not be sufficient land supply in the coming period in the Zincirlikuyu-Maslak corridor, the most popular business location, adequate office supply will not be created. We foresee that as the existing old buildings are replaced with qualified office buildings, the office stock will increase in the district. However, we also believe that the increasing supply will not be able to meet the demand; hence, rent amounts will continue to rise in all areas. Emerging Office Market - Izmir The developments and opportunities within Izmir s office market will be dealt with in this section. As the existing industrial zones located between Alsancak Port and Turan- Karşıkaya have been transformed into the Central Business District within the scope of the New City Center project, significant developments have begun to occur in Izmir s office market. The Alsancak-Montrö-Gümrük, Liman and Karşıkaya districts, which are composed of predominately commercial activities, can be deemed Izmir s central business districts. Source: Colliers International Turkey Europe A Class Asia A Class Europe B Class Asia B Class 1 st quarter 2 nd quarter 3 rd quarter 4 th quarter Nevertheless, as the buildings in these areas are old and deficient in terms of technical conditions, the need for qualified office buildings cannot be satisfied in Izmir s office market. The rent amounts for the A class qualified office buildings located in these districts, such as Heris Tower and Punta Iş Merkezi, are already over $20/m²/month. BLACK SEA Istanbul OFFICE SUB-MARKETS TEM E-5 G.TEPE, ŞIŞLI, E.TEPE TAKSIM - BEŞIKTAŞ AIRPORT ETILER LEVENT MASLAK Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge KAVACIK Bosphorus Bridge ALTUNIZADE ÜMRANIYE Most of the office stock in Istanbul can be categorized as B Class and is located on the European side due to the well developed infrastructure and amenities. Ambarlı Harbour Office districts Airports Atatürk International Airport Zeyport Harbour MARMARA SEA Haydarpaşa Harbour KOZYATAĞI Sabiha Gökçen Airport Pendik Harbour Source: Colliers International Tureky Harbours Colliers International TURKEY 11

14 For the other A class office buildings, which are relatively older and inadequate in terms of technical conditions, this rate has reached $15/m²/month. It is obvious that the supply does not meet the demand in the Izmir office market, where the vacancy rate in A class office buildings is around 3-5%. The fact that the annual yield is approximately % in the Izmir office market is also among the factors which are creating investment opportunities. 136 projects from 30 countries participated in an international competition organized by the Izmir Metropolitan Municipality in 2001 regarding region planning within the scope of the New City Center project. The German Architect Brandi s project was elected as the winner in the competition. Benefiting also from some of the other remarkable projects, the aim has been to create a new city center identity that will affect Izmir s metropolitan area. The Izmir Port and the Turan district have become attractive in terms of creating a supply of qualified offices both because there is insufficient land supply in the Alsancak-Konak area, which is the former city center, as well as the fact that the new city center will be between these districts. The aim is to meet the demand for offices with the upcoming investments in the New City Center, which covers an area of approximately 5,500,000 m². The map and table below indicate the existing and planned office investments in the district. Result As a result of these developments in the Izmir office market, it is expected that the existing office stock will be replaced with qualified office stocks which are also sufficient in terms of technical condition. Investors interest continues in the New City Center project, which constitutes a good example of planned development. It can be argued that the outlook of the Izmir office market will completely change as a result of the new office projects to be completed in the coming period. We further estimate that the Izmir office market will be more buoyant and the existing demand will be largely met after the new investments in the market are finished. Çanakkale TABLE 3 selected offıce developments ın ızmır D565 planned office investments in Izmır Projects type TOTAL CLOSED AREa (m 2 ) DELIVERY year Project # 1 Office 125, Project # 2 Office 60,000 n/a O - 30 E - 87 Project # 3 Office, Mixed Shopping Center and Housing 75, Project # 4 Office 25, E - 87 Project # 5 Office, Mixed Shopping Center 100,000 O Project # 6 Office 22, Project # 7 Office, Mixed Shopping Center 120,000 n/a Source: Colliers International Turkey Çeşme O - 30 O Colliers International TURKEY Aydın

15 I S T A N B U L Industrial Market Logistics Industry Overwiew As defined by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), Logistics management is that part of supply chain management that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers requirements. Logistics management activities typically include inbound and outbound transportation management, fleet management, warehousing, materials handling, order fulfillment, logistics network design, inventory management, supply/demand planning, and management of third party logistics services providers. To varying degrees, the logistics function also includes sourcing and procurement, production planning and scheduling, packaging and assembly, and customer service. It is involved in all levels of planning and execution - strategic, operational, and tactical. Logistics management is an integrating function which coordinates and optimizes all logistics activities, as well as integrates logistics activities with other functions, including marketing, sales, manufacturing, finance, and information technology. With globalization of resources and production, companies are inclined to withdraw from many points in the manufacturing processes, HADIMKÖY E-5 Beylikdüz kdüzü OIZ BEYLİKDÜZÜ Industrial areas Organized Industrial Zones Airports Harbours Ambarlı Harbour İKİTELLİ İkitelli OIZ YENİBOSNA - GÜNEŞLİ Atatürk International Airport KEMERBURGAZ Zeyport Harbour MARMARA SEA AYAZAĞA Haydarpaşa Harbour Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge Bosphorus Bridge ÜMRANİYE Dudullu OIZ SAMANDIRA KARTAL BLACK SEA DUDULLU PENDİK Sabiha Gökçen Airport Pendik Harbour TUZLA KURTKÖY İstanbul Deri OIZ Tuzla Deri OIZ Tuzla Mermerciler OIZ Bo oyay ve Vernik OIZ Tuzla T Kimya K OIZO Gebze OIZ Gebze V OIZ Plastikçiler iler OIZ Güzeller OIZ TOSB-TAYSAD A OIZ Gebze VI OIZ Gebze IV OIZ Dilovası OIZ Kömürcüler OIZ GEBZE Source: Colliers International Tureky PREFERRED INDUSTRIAL AREAS A general analysis of Istanbul and its surroundings indicates that the most preferred areas for industrial buildings are Hadımköy, Beylikdüzü, Günesli, Yenibosna, Ikitelli, Ayazaga and Kemerburgaz on the European side and Dudullu, Ümraniye, Samandıra, Kartal, Pendik, Kurtköy, Tuzla and Gebze on the Asian side. Colliers International TURKEY 13

16 and transfer these processes to other companies that they can control in terms of costs, timing, and quality. 7 GRAPH 10 - ISTANBUL AVG. RENTS AND VACANCY 30% Companies want solely to focus on their business and outsource their logistic activities including mainly the transportation. It is assumed that the companies who manage their logistics well save about 15 to 50% in their costs. Within this network, Turkey is considered within the Eastern European cluster. After the expansion of the EU and ongoing integrations, the demand for logistics property is moving to the Eastern Europe. Low labor cost and high potential for extension combined with geographical location advantages shifts demand to Eastern Europe and Turkey (f) Rent ($ / m 2 / month) Vacancy (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Colliers International Turkey Possible EU membership and the recent wave of privatizations have also made Turkey attractive to large global investors. According to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2007 report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), Istanbul ranks highest in terms of city development prospects GRAPH 11 - ISTANBUL PRIME YIELDS (%) Although Turkey s logistics industry is relatively young in terms of service and development, it is going through a rapid growth due to the recovery in the economy, together with sophistication brought in by multinational logistics providers and greater realization by manufacturers and retailers of the benefits of outsourcing logistics activities (f) 2009 (f) Prime Yields (%) Source: Colliers International Turkey 14 Colliers International TURKEY

17 Rents It is expected that rents for industrial/warehouses will increase in the foreseeable future, particularly as the market is severely undersupplied. In addition, new areas will become hubs for the logistics industries as firms search for available land with good transportation linkages for purpose built warehouses. Forecast We expect demand for A Class warehouse space to increase by 650,000-1,000,000 m² for 2008 and Although more stock is coming on line, the market is still severly undersupplied. Thus, we believe that while the rents will continue to increase, the vacancy rates will decrease significantly. Yields The expected yields for the mentioned industrial investment models are about 8.5 in Estimated sale prices for the industrial zoned lands are approximately $/m², depending on factors such as location, infrastructure, accessibility and allowed construction area. Colliers International TURKEY 15

18 T U R K E Y Retail Market Much of the existing retail in cities in Anatolia is located in the city centers and is intermixed with other services lining the streets. Overview The need for high quality retail space in Turkey from international and domestic retailers has resulted in a wave of shopping center development throughout the country. Several of the large international brands that have entered the Turkish retail market have experienced good sales performance and have achieved their profit targets. Retailers that are seeking to enter the market, wish to emulate the success of the brands that have been present in the Turkish market for the past few years. In terms of retail space per capita, Turkey lags far behind Western and Eastern Europe. The availability of land in cities outside of the main centers of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, combined with an increase in consumer purchasing power on the back of consistent economic growth has also propelled the development of the segment in the smaller cities of Turkey. The first wave of retail investment in Turkey concentrated on the larger metropolitan areas of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Today, these centers constitute two thirds of the total shopping center supply in the country. The larger and higher profile projects are located in the central business districts (CBDs) in these cities. In Istanbul, in particular, several of the medium to large sized shopping centers, which have entered the market in recent years are located in the Şişli and Levent CBDs. Some of the more significant projects, which include Cevahir Shopping Center (2005), Kanyon Shopping Center (2006), Metrocity (2003) and Astoria Shopping Center (2008). In 2008, four new shopping center projects, which include Sapphire (Levent), Levent Mall (Levent), Tat Towers (Zincirlikuyu) are expected to be completed and open their doors. Due to saturation in the market, and rapidly increasing land prices resulting from a lack of supply, many developers and institutional investors are looking outside of Turkey s three largest cities to the smaller centers of Anatolia. Much of the existing retail in cities in Anatolia is located in the city centers and is intermixed with other services lining the streets. Street retail is predominant throughout the city centers. Some established Turkish brands have outlets in these cities, although with a limited capacity, while some international branded products are sold by local independent retailers, who carry various brands. In medium sized and larger centers in Anatolia, bazaars, which have been present for centuries, offer a more traditional take on the shopping center concept, where various products, such as basic household goods, clothing, spices, leather and textile products, can be sourced. Prices are not fixed in the shops in bazaars and customers and store keepers enter into negotiations to determine the price of an item. This retail culture is slowly changing with the establishment of modern retail stores in these cities. The shopping center concept, although well established in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, is still a relatively new concept in much of 16 Colliers International TURKEY

19 Turkey. As a result of the demand from retailers to open stores in these cities, the lack of supply in modern, organized centers has perpetuated interest and investment from institutional investors and developers. Major Players and Investments Some of the major retail investors and developers of retail projects in Anatolian cities are Multi Turk Mall, Corio, Renaissance, Meinl/ Acteeum and Redevco who develop or invest in several retail projects in various cities such as Antalya, Denizli, Aydın, Diyarbakır, Samsun, Adapazarı, Kayseri, Gaziantep, Trabzon, Nevşehir, Bursa, Erzurum and Manisa. In addition to these cities, in Kahramanmaraş, Samsun, Tokat, Zonguldak, Malatya and Kütahya, numerous shopping center projects are under construction. However, comparatively more industrialized and commercially active cities such as Gaziantep, Mersin, Adana, Kayseri, Bursa, Konya, Muğla, Antalya, Balıkesir and Denizli are also attracting major retail investment projects. The leading cities in terms of the stock of existing shopping centers are; Adana (5), Antalya (9), Bursa (8), Denizli (8), Gaziantep (5), Mersin (5), Muğla (7), Konya (6) and Balıkesir (4). Overall, retail investment in eastern Anatolian cities is lower than in the western cities. While the average number of shopping centers per western cities is between four and five, most of the cities in east Anatolia do not have any shopping centers. However, with the increase of GDP per capita along with years of economic stability and growth, retail investments have begun to shift towards the eastern part of the country. There are two large and one medium size shopping centers in the pipeline in Diyarbakir, Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş. Forum Diyarbakır which will be a large size shopping center with 55,000 m² of gross leasable area (GLA) and the medium size Forum Gaziantep with 39,000 m² of GLA are being developed by Multi Turk Mall and expected to be opened in Istinye Park Shopping Center in Istanbul, delivered in 2007 Colliers International TURKEY 17

20 The large size Kahramanmaraş Shopping Center which is also expected to be opened in 2009 with 58,000 m² of GLA is being developed by Meinl/Acteeum. Forecast The second wave of investment in retail, currently underway, includes the smaller Anatolian cities. The smaller cities of Turkey in the Anatolian region have experienced industrial growth as uses have been decentralized from the larger centers of Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara. Local Anatolian industrialists and entrepreneurs that have profited from the growth in their local economies have emerged as a target client group with more sophisticated tastes and a developing appetite for branded products. The economic growth and expanding populations of these cities, the availability of vacant land and the lack of supply in quality, organized retail space present opportunities in retail development. these locations will continue to be an attractive area for modern retail development, which will meet the demands of international brands and established Turkish retailers. Shopping centers in Turkey have been well received and function as more than retail use areas. Many centers throughout the country also function as social and entertainment centers and have become meeting points for social interaction. As yields have begun to decrease to between 7-8% in Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara, the smaller Anatolian cities are currently experiencing yields of roughly 10-11%. In addition, organized retail as opposed to the existing stock of retail in many of these cities, attract better rents and brings new retailers to the area. Inevitably, these factors make the smaller cities of Anatolia very attractive for local and foreign investors who have already participated in various shopping center projects and have an expanding presence in Turkey s retail environment. The growth of the retail sector in the smaller cities of Turkey is expected to continue and AKMERKEZ The larger and higher profile projects are located in the central business districts (CBDs). In Istanbul, in particular, several of the medium to large sized shopping centers, which have entered the market in recent years are located in the Şişli and Levent CBDs. Akmerkez Shopping Centre, Etiler, Istanbul 18 Colliers International TURKEY

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