Haziran 2011 TRAKYA UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE. Volume: 13 No: 1 June 2011 ISSN

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1 Haziran 2011 TRAKYA UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE Volume: 13 No: 1 June 2011 ISSN

2 Haziran 2011 TRAKYA UNIVERSITY Journal of Social Science Volume: 13 No: 1 June 2011 i

3 Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi TRAKYA UNIVERSITY Journal of Social Science Volume: 13 Number: 1 June 2011 Dergi Sahibi / Owner Sosyal Biliml Dizgi / Design Osman BOSTANCI Kapak Dizayn / Cover Design Balkan Tel.-Faks: sobedergi@trakya.edu.tr The license agreement was signed by EBSCO Publishing, Inc. and Trakya University Journal of Social Sciences on 05 November indekslenmektedir. Trakya University Journal of Social Sciences is indexed in the TUBITAK-ULAKBIM Database. ii

4 niversitesi Yale University Prof. Dr. Mehmet ALPARG Assoc. Prof. Ali AKARCA University of Chicago Illinois Prof. Barry RIDER Cambridge University Prof. Dr. Sudi APAK Beyk Assoc. Prof. Ezendu ARIWA London Metropolitan University University of California, Los Angeles Prof. Dr. Mehmet SARAY Prof. King-kok CHEUNG University of California, Los Angeles Assoc. Prof. Johns Hopkins University Prof. Dr. Ahmet SINAV Prof. Dr. Ovidiu STOICA Prof. Dr. Aysit TANSEL Prof. Foo-Nin HO San Francisco State University Prof. Philip T. HOFFMAN California Institute of Technology Prof. Tunay I. TUNCA Stanford University iii

5 Prof. Dr. Sibel TURAN Prof. Li Way LEE Wayne State University Marmar Prof. Robert MERVILLE City University London Prof. Elliot Y. NEAMAN University of San Francisco Prof. Dr. Maria Stella VETTORI University of South Africa Prof. Dr.Turan YAZGAN Chuvash Institute of Social Sciences Dr. Hakan ORBAY iv

6 B Prof itesi Prof. Dr. Sudi APAK Prof. Mustafa ARSLAN. Prof. Dr. Esin CAN MUTLU Program Sorumlusu Prof. Dr. A. Ercan GEGEZ Prof. Dr. Demet KARNAK v

7 vi

8 71 Volkan - gravity model ve Anahtar Kelimeler:. TRADE ESTIMATION OF TURKEY WITH SYRIA, JORDAN AND LEBANON WITHIN THE FREE TRADE AREA FRAMEWORK VIA AN INTERNATIONAL GRAVITY MODEL ABSTRACT Today there are many examples of free trade areas in various parts of the world established for economical, political and safety reasons. In this context on June 10 th, 2010 a decision has been taken to establish a free trade area in one of the most strategically important regions of the world, namely Middle East, among Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan within the 3 rd Turkish-Arabian cooperation forum. This research investigates the international trade potential between the 4 countries aysen@ahg.name

9 72 using the gravity model framework. The results indicate that there is currently less trade among these countries than the gravity model would predict, therefore establishing a free trade area means a trade surplus for Turkey. Key Words: Gravity Model, Free Trade Areas, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon. motivasyo positive sum game

10 73 Serbest Tica olarak kabul edilmez. 1 1

11 74 2, l olarak ir: 2 3 Robert Grosse ve Duane Kujawa, International Business,, Richard D. Irwin Inc., Boston, 1992, s Inmaculada Martinez- Atlantic Economic Journal, Volume 31, Number 2, 2003, s. 176.

12 75 m x Yi. Yj Tij K u d ij ij T ij K : Sabit Terim m Y i Y j x d ij uij: Hata Terimi 5 elasticity of substitution preference CES- function constant 5 a.g.e. s. 176.

13 76 -Ohlin- 6 7 ticaret teorilerin 8 9, 10 dinamikleri intra-regional) ticaretin EconAnadolu 2009: Anadolu 8 Golovko, s Specification for Modelling International Trade Flows and Free Trade Agreement Effects: A 10-Year The Open Economics Journal, volume 3, s The World Economy, Vol.30, Issue 4, s. 677.

14 77 12 MENA-AB ticareti; Hirsch ve Hashai, 2000, Arap- 2000, Devletleritahmini) 13 ar, distance-sensitive sectors) distance-sensitive products 12 Ferit Ku ( ), s. 1 ve a.g.e. s

15 78 m x Yi. Yj Tij K u d ij ij log T ij m log Y i x log Y j - ij + log u ij 14 durumda denklemdeki Y i Bu gerekmektedir: log T j x log Y j - j + log u j log X j x log Y j - x log d j + log u j log M j m log Y j - m log d j + log u j Bu denklemlerde; X j M j K: Sabit terim Y j : j u j : Hata terimini ifade etmektedir. Zaman Diliminin Belirlenmesi 14 G.S. Maddala, Introduction to Econometrics -101.

16 79 yatay- - durumda panel veri setinin zaman boyutun verilerde birim- - edilirse, sahte regresyon ve oto- yerin i yatay-kesits regresyon ve otoii iii esel krizin krizlerin ikisi de 2008

17 80 verilerinden de ok l GSMH Verileri ak bir

18 81 Milletler Ulusal Hesaplar Veritaba Aggregates Database UN National Accounts Main -

19 82 mesafeyi veren MapCrow Ancak ba gibi gibi Kuzey Kore gibi

20 83 Regresyonda kukl l lar hacmi ile ilgili 1993 (ihracat eksi 1999

21 84 Suriye Suriye Kaynak: Lübnan Ürdün Suriye

22 Lübnan Ürdün Suriye

23 86, ancak , testleri - ih -testleri sonucunda istatistiksel Goldfeld

24 87 R kare GSMH Standart Hata Mesafe Standart Hata R kare GSMH Standart Hata Mesafe Standart Hata N R2 GDP DISTANCE N R2 GDP DISTANCE (.089) (.206) (.079) (.180) (.073) (.172) (.079) (.181) (.076) (.177) (.082) (.191) (.073) (.168) (.079) (.183) (.072) (.163) (.077) (.174) (.072) (.161) (.083) (.184) (.069) (.155) (.089) (.197) (.068) (.152) (.091) (.203) (.065) (.144) (.087) (.191) (.068) (.149) (.085) (.184) (.068) (.148) (.087) (.188) (.064) (.138) (.092) (.199) (.063) (.135) (.086) (.183) (.066) (.139) (.090) (.186) (.066) (.136) (.088) (.180) (.069) (.140) (.099) (.201)

25 88 Modele SLJ Kukl SLJ kukla gelir, zira =0.32. ekonom Bul ( ) 2007 Ticaret Verileri, ( )

26 89 R 2 GSMH GSMH Standart Hata Mesafe Mesafe Standart Hata SLJ Standart Hata N R 2 GDP DISTANCE SLJ (.09) (.218).154 (.314) (.074) (.183).052 (.261) (.076) (.188) (.270) (.073) (.178) (.254) (.072) (.173) (.245) (.072) (.171) (.247) (.069) (.163) (.232) (.068) (.159) (.225) (.065) (.152) (.216) (.067) (.156) (.226) (.066) (.152) (.223) (.207) (.062) (.141) -.460* * (.199) (.061) (.136) -.497* * (.204) (.064) (.140) -.508* * (.201) (.063) (.137) -.517* * (.213) (.068) (.143) -.449* *

27 90 R 2 GSMH GSMH Standart Hata Mesafe Mesafe Standart Hata SLJ Standart Hata N R 2 GDP DISTANCE SLJ (.078) (.187) (.268) (.076) (.184) -.611* (.262)* (.082) (.202) (.290) (.080) (.194) (.276) (.077) (.184) (.259) (.082) (.191) (.274) (.088) (.206) (.292) (.090) (.213) (.301) (.086) (.200) (.284) (.084) (.193) (.280) (.086) (.196) (.285) (.091) (.207) -528 (.303) (.084) (.189) (.276) (.085) (.185) -.787* (.268)* (.084) (.180) -.707* (.263)* (.098) (.208) (.308) Kuzey A

28 91 Fakat tica

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30 93 Cambridge. Helpman, E., & Krugman, P.R., Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the International Economy, MIT Pres, Cambridge, (1985). Golovko, A. Eco (2009). Grosse, R.,& Kujawa, D., Richard D. Irwin Inc., Boston, (1992). Hirsch, S., & Hashai, N., The Arab-Israeli Trade Potential: The Role of Distance-Se The International Trade Journal, 14 (1), (2000), & M.,, 10(2), (2009), Kepapstoglu, K., Karlaftis, M. G.,& Tsamboulas, D. The Gravity Model Specification For Modeling International Trade Flows and Trade Agreement Effects: A 10-Year Review of Empirical Studies The Open Economics Journal, 3, (2010), Kula, F., & Aslan, A., (2008), ( ) Linnemann, H., An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, (1966). Maddala, G. S., Introduction to Econometrics, 2. New York, (1992). Matinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, Gravity Model: An Application to Atlantic Economic Journal, 31(2), (2003), Mehanna, R. A., Do Politics and Culture Affect Middle East Trade? Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 1(2), (2003), Peridy, N., Towards a New Policy Between the USA and Middle- East Countries: Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential The

31 94 World Economy, 28 (4), (2005), A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, (1963), Porojan, A. Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Open Economics Review, 12, (2001), Rivlin, P. Trade Potential in the Middle East: Some Optimistic Middle East Review of International Affairs, 4(1), (2000), , (2006). Is the Middle East and North Africa Region IMF Working Paper, WP/05/90, Washington, (2005). Tinbergen, J., Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, The Twentieth Century Fund, New York, (1962). Tovias, A., Ruben, E., & Herman, L., What Would Normalisation of Economic Relations Between Mashrek Countries, Turkey and Israel Imply? The World Economy, 30(4), (2007), The Regionalization of the World Economy University of Chicago Press, Chicago, ( ) -32), The