ING Wealth Management Turkey

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1 ING Wealth Management Turkey Investment Committee Report Yatırım Komitesi Raporu T:

2 Overview 1 Global Macro On a trend basis the DM growth might be impeded by the headwinds of financial sector, sovereign and household deleveraging for some time to come. Yet from a more cyclical perspective it seems that the seeds are being sown for a moderate reacceleration in global growth towards the summer. Forex Most EM currencies remain 5% to10% below their highs of last year despite a marked improvement in the global cycle and reduced financial stress. Overall EM fundamentals remain strong and major EM central banks have eased monetary policy as inflation pressures have diminished. Equities Investors have been in a risk on mode since the turn of the year. This is not only visible in equities but also in the tightening of credit spreads and EMD-spreads. The explanation of this change in risk attitude is threefold. First, markets are flushed with liquidity. Fixed Income There is little doubt that dark clouds are still drifting on the horizon of the global economy. The Euro crisis still has the potential to erupt into an existential threat for the Eurozone s economic system with a very destabilizing fall-out for the financial system in the rest of the world. Commodities Two commodity sectors so far this year positively stand out. Both precious metals and industrial metals are notable outperformers ytd. At the opposite side of the spectrum are agriculture and in particular energy both underperforming while livestock so far roughly performs in line with the broad commodity index (DJ UBS Commodity Index). Turkish Market International Markets Short term Medium term Long term Short term Medium term Long term (1-3 month) (3-12 month) (>12 month) (1-3 month) (3-12 month) (>12 month) Fixed Income Equities Commodities Real Estate 2 1 ING IM Houseview Global Strategy and ING Wealth Management Investment Committee opinion 2

3 Genel Görünüm 3 Global Makro Gelişmiş ekonomilerde büyümenin finans sektörlerindeki sorunlar ve kamu ile hanehalkı borçlarının azaltılma eğiliminin bir süre daha etkisinde kalmaya devam edeceği söylenebilir. Ancak döngüsel açıdan bakıldığında, yaza doğru orta halli küresel büyüme tohumlarının atıldığı gözleniyor. Döviz Piyasaları Finansal baskının azalmasına ve küresel döngünün iyileşmesine karşın, Gelişmekte Olan Ülke para birimlerinin çoğu geçtiğimiz yılki tepe noktasına göre %5 - %10 un daha düşük seyrediyor. Genel anlamda Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin temel verileri güçlü seyrediyor ve başlıca Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Merkez Bankaları, enflasyon baskısının azalmasıyla birlikte, para politikalarını gevşettiler. Menkul Kıymetler Yılbaşından bu yana yatırımcılar risk alma moduna girdi. Bu durum sadece menkul kıymetlerde değil, aynı zamanda kredi spread lerinde ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülke borç spread lerindeki daralmada da kendini gösteriyor. Risk iştahındaki artışın arkasında temel olarak üç neden bulunuyor. Birinci neden; piyasaların likiditeye boğulmuş olması. Sabit Getiriler Küresel ekonomi üzerinde hala kara bulutların dolaştığı konusunda şüphe yok. Euro krizi, Euro bölgesi ekonomi sisteminde mevcut bir tehdit olarak yeniden patlak verebilir ve dünyanın geri kalanında da finans sisteminin dengesini bozabilir. Emtia Bu yıl şimdilik iki emtia sektörü öne çıkıyor. Bugün itibarıyla değerli metaller ve sanayi metalleri yüksek performans sergileyen sektörler. Yelpazenin diğer ucunda ise düşük performans sergileyen tarım ve özellikle enerji sektörleri geliyor. Bununla birlikte canlı hayvan sektörü geniş emtia endeksine uygun seyrediyor (DJ UBS Emtia Endeksi). Türkiye piyasaları Yabancı piyasalar Kısa Vade Orta Vade Uzun Vade Kısa Vade Orta Vade Uzun Vade (1-3 ay) (3-12 ay) (>12 ay) (1-3 ay) (3-12 ay) (>12 ay) Sabit getiriler Hisse senetleri Emtia Gayrımenkul 4 3 ING IM Houseview Global Strategy ve ING Servet Yönetimi Komitesi görüşüdür 3

4 Turkey 5 The local bond market with the TRY finding support from global risk sentiments seems to price in some loosening in CBT policy in the near term. The overnight (O/N) repo rate on the ISE falling to average 7% between 13 and 16 February (when the Treasury also completed its monthly auctions comfortably) supported the significant fall in 2Y benchmark bond yields in general. Nevertheless recent O/N repo rates seem to be at odds with the CBT s tightening stance because the average O/N repo rate since 20 October tightening (when CBT hiked its O/N lending rate from 9% to 12.5% to fight against double digit inflation) till 13 February was 10.5%. So if the CBT will not ease policy on 21 February meeting (not expected) the rates shall revert to double digit sometime in the near future. As the base case estimates /US$ to fall notably in the coming months we also think this will be a testing time for local markets where the CBT might need to maintain double digit market rates to support TRY. Overall positive inflation surprises and stronger capital flows remain as key risks to the current cautious view. TRY strongly appreciated due to the CBT s actions and support from external sentiment. This allowed the CBT also to reduce its presence in the FX market (halting daily auctions on 25 January). Yet looking ahead the CBT maintains its intraday FX sale auction flexibility while reserves improved only gradually recently (supported also by Treasury s Eurobond issuance in late January and early February). We still think that the CBT s comfort zone in 50:50 EUR:USD to maintain current flexible tightening is range. After trading at double digits since mid-november (average 10.65%), 2Y benchmark bond yield compound fell to single digits again on 26 January as USD/TRY fell below 1.80 along with strengthening inflows to EMs in general, Turkey not excluded. Easing O/N market rates also aided the fall. Nevertheless, average cost of CBT s OMO funding to banks remains between 7% and 8% in line with the tightening put in place on 20 October and it is too early to expect a loosening in monetary policy. Key Economic Forecasts: Key Economic Forecasts F 2012F 2013F Real GDP (%YoY) Unemployment rate year-end (%) GDP per capita (US$) 5,802 7,056 7,643 9,221 10,376 8,590 10,067 10,387 10,571 12,432 CPI (end-year %YoY) PPI - WPI until 2003 (average &YoY) Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn) Trade balance (US$bn) Current account balance (US$bn) mth interest rate average (%) ING Turkey: Monthly Local Focus ING Turkey: Monthly Local Focus

5 Türkiye 7 Global risk duyarlılığından destek alan TRY ile birlikte yerel tahvil-bono piyasasında da hızlı bir faiz düşüşü yaşandı. Genel olarak tahvil faizlerinde TCMB politikasında kısmi bir gevşeme nin fiyatlandığı söylenebilir. Nitekim Şubat arasında ortalama %7 ye gerileyen IMKB nin gecelik REPO faiz oranları (Hazine nin aylık ihalelerini rahatlıkla tamamladığı bir dönemde) 2 yıllık gösterge tahvil getirisindeki düşüşleri destekledi. Ancak, söz konusu gecelik REPO faiz oranlarının TCMB nin mevcut sıkı politikasına aykırı olduğu söylenebilir. Nitekim 20 Ekim de uygulamaya konulan sıkılaştırma politikasından 13 Şubat a kadar geçen dönemde gecelik REPO faiz oranı %10,5 idi (çift rakamlı enflasyonla mücadele için TCMB gecelik borç verme faiz oranı 20 Ekim de %9 dan %12,5 e yükseltmişti). Dolayısıyla, şayet TCMB 21 Şubat tarihli toplantısında politikaları gevşetmez ise (beklenmiyor), yakın gelecekte faizlerin çift haneli rakamlara çıkması beklenebilir. Baz senaryomuzda EUR/USD paritesinin önümüzdeki aylarda düşeceği tahmin edildiğinden, biz de TCMB nin TRY yi desteklemek için çift haneli piyasa oranlarını koruma ihtiyacı hissedeceğini ve yerel piyasalardaki iyimserliğin test edileceği bir dönem olacağını düşünüyoruz. Pozitif enflasyon sürprizleri veya daha güçlü sermaye akışları ise bugün itibarıyla bu temkinli duruşumuza karşı temel risk faktörleri olmayı sürdürüyor. TCMB politikaları ve yurtdışındaki olumlu havanın desteği ile TRY önemli ölçüde değer kazandı. Bu sayede TCMB döviz piyasasındaki varlığını azaltma şansı yakaladı (günlük ihaleler 25 Ocak ta sona erdi). TCMB gün içinde döviz ihale esnekliğini ise korumaya devam ederken, bugün itibarıyla döviz rezervleri ancak kademeli bir şekilde arttı (Hazine nin Ocak sonu ve Şubat başında gerçekleştirdiği yurtdışı tahvil ihraçları da bu yükselişi destekledi). TCMB nin mevcut esnek sıkılaştırma politikasını sürdürmesi konusunda %50 EUR %50 USD den oluşan döviz sepeti için referans bandın 2.00 ile 2.10 arasında olduğu düşüncemizi koruyoruz. Kasım ayı ortasından Ocak ın son haftasına kadar çift haneli rakamlarda (ortalama %10.65) seyreden 2 yıllık gösterge tahvil birleşik getirisi, USD/TRY paritesinin 1.80 nin altına inmesi ve genel olarak, Türkiye dahil olmak üzere, Gelişmekte Olan Ülke piyasalarına fon girişlerinin güçlenmesiyle birlikte 26 Ocak ta tekrar tek haneye indi. Gecelik piyasa faiz oranlarının düşmesi de bu gerilemeye etki eden önemli faktörlerden biri oldu. Yine de TCMB nin bankalara Açık Piyasa İşlemleri kanalıyla sağladığı fonların ortalama maliyeti, 20 Ekim de uygulamaya alınan sıkılaştırma politikasına uygun olarak, hala ortalama %7 ila %8 arasında olup para politikasında gevşeme beklemek için henüz çok erken gibi gözükmektedir. Temel Ekonomik Tahminler: Temel Ekonomik Tahminler F 2012F 2013F Reel GSYİH (YY %) Yıl sonu işsizlik oranı (%) Kişi başı GSYİH (US$) 5,802 7,056 7,643 9,221 10,376 8,590 10,067 10,387 10,571 12,432 TÜFE (yıl sonu % YY) 'e kadar ÜFE - TEFE (ortalama & YY) İhracat (US$ milyar) İthalat (US$ milyar) Ticaret Dengesi (US$ milyar) Cari Hesap Dengesi (US$ milyar) Ortalama 3 aylık faiz oranı (%) ING Türkiye: Monthly Local Focus ING Turkey: Monthly Local Focus

6 Global Macro 9 On a trend basis the DM growth might be impeded by the headwinds of financial sector, sovereign and household deleveraging for some time to come. Yet from a more cyclical perspective it seems that the seeds are being sown for a moderate reacceleration in global growth towards the summer. This upturn will be driven by three broad factors. First of all, the decline in short-term inflation momentum is providing a boost to real labour income and profit growth. Moreover, in the next few months these dynamics should be further enhanced by a turn in the inventory cycle outside the US (where inventories already started to contribute positively to growth in Q4 12). Finally, market participants expect global monetary policy to turn easier this year. However, substantial differences within DM space remain. The US is expected to be the clear outperformer in the next few months as recession risk has receded substantially, also because the degree of fiscal tightening will be much less than anticipated at first. By contrast, a European recession is almost a certainty as the economy is plagued by a more vicious version of the negative feedback loop between sovereign and bank balance sheets. These problems have a huge spill over effect on the UK which also has to cope with severe fiscal tightening. Finally, Japan has been hit by slowing global demand and the appreciation of the Yen but should recover on the back of firming EM demand later in the year. In addition to this geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (most notably Iran) have been rising again which could result in a substantial increase in the oil price. If there is one lessen we learnt from last year it is that an unbalanced global economy would find it very difficult to cope with such a shock. GDP Forecasts %YoY 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2011F 2012F 2013F World (USD) US Eurozone Japan Turkey Brazil Russia India China CPI Forecasts %YoY 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2011F 2012F 2013F World US Eurozone Japan Turkey Brazil Russia India China ING IM Houseview Global Strategy ING Financial Markets Research: ING Economic Forecast

7 Forex 11 Most EM currencies remain 5% to10% below their highs of last year despite a marked improvement in the global cycle and reduced financial stress. Overall EM fundamentals remain strong and major EM central banks have eased monetary policy as inflation pressures have diminished. There are still domestic and regional differences which should create divergence within EM going forward. Regions steered by the global cyclical momentum or improving US dynamics like LATAM should see a continuation of the trend. A supportive argument is that the recent performance seems to be mostly driven by unwound FX hedges rather than actual allocation shifts, and, that market participants remain underweight EM. On the other hand, it seems recent performance in CEEMEA has been driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Such trends are not expected to persist as structural headwinds have not disappeared. Subpar growth, fiscal austerity and bank deleveraging in Europe should continue to impact negatively this region. On the aftermath of the 2007/08 financial crises, market practices to infer monetary policy expectations from swap curves changed to the benefit of Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) curves. Previously, expectations were derived from LIBOR-based curves but credit-induced widening in LIBOR rates made it increasingly difficult to isolate policy rate expectations. In times where the notion of risk-free assets is brought into question, overnight rates like the effective fed fund rate in the US or the EONIA rate in Europe seem to be a better measure of a risk free rate and as a result make it easier to extract expectations. Before the introduction of Zero Interest Rate Policies (ZIRP), market participants used to look at 2 year swap rate differential to analyze currencies under the sensible assumption that it is fairly difficult to predict monetary policy beyond this horizon. While this intuitively makes sense, this convention has also been brought into question on the back of such policies as short term rates remain anchored. Analysts now look further into the curve to derive monetary policy expectations and start using 5 year swap rate differential. Foreign Exchange Forecasts (end period) 10/02/2012 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2013F Euro EUR/USD Japan USD/JPY Turkey USD/TRY Turkey EUR/TRY Brazil USD/BRL Russia USD/RUB India USD/INR China USD/CNY ING IM Houseview Global Strategy ING Financial Markets Research: ING Economic Forecast

8 Equities 13 Investors have been in a risk on mode since the turn of the year. This is not only visible in equities but also in the tightening of credit spreads and EMD-spreads. The explanation of this change in risk attitude is threefold. First, markets are flushed with liquidity. Central banks in developed markets have all expanded their balance sheets through quantitative easing (Fed and BoE), LTRO (ECB), asset purchases (BoJ) or interventions in the currency markets (SNB). For European investors the LTRO is a game changer as it removes the systemic risk of a bank failure. In December, banks have taken up almost 500 billion Euro and at the next tranche at the end of February they may take up a similar amount. Banks are provided with cheap funding over a 3-year period and they can play the carry trade by investing in (peripheral) government bonds and cashing in the yield differential. This behaviour may have the side effect that insurance companies, which are traditionally big buyers of bank bonds, may need to turn towards other assets to invest in. Probably this will not be done in equities due to the implementation of Solvency 2, which put a very high risk weighting on equities. It may on the other hand induce insurance companies to buy more in corporate credit or government bonds that have a low or no risk weighting. For equity investors the decline in the systemic risk is the important factor. This leads to higher valuations. The following table illustrates the impact of a lower risk premium on the fair value of the market. The second driver is the improvement in the macro economic outlook. Many analysts raised the economic growth forecast for Europe and the US and accordingly impacts the earnings forecast positively. The combination of higher valuations and less negative earnings increases the fair value of the market. The third driver is investor positioning. According to data published by State Street, institutional investors flows are turning more favourable towards equities. Likewise, hedge funds, which were big net-short of equities, have moved neutral. As this bull market goes on, investors will throw off their defensive stance and become buyers of the market. Historically it took at least 6 month for institutional investors to restore their positions after similar long riskaversion periods. 13 ING IM Houseview Global Strategy

9 Fixed Income 14 There is little doubt that dark clouds are still drifting on the horizon of the global economy. The Euro crisis still has the potential to erupt into an existential threat for the Eurozone s economic system with a very destabilizing fall-out for the financial system in the rest of the world. Moreover, significant uncertainty still surrounds the outlook for US fiscal policy, where recent payroll tax cut and employment benefit initiatives still have to be extended for the rest of the year. On top of that, a very substantial amount of fiscal tightening is in the offing for early next year unless additional changes are made to fiscal policy before the end of Meanwhile, weakness in the Chinese real estate market and rising geopolitical tension over the Iranian nuclear program are keeping the risks alive on new shocks to a still imbalanced global economy. At the same time it should be acknowledged that some rays of light have been breaking through the clouds over the last two months. Market sentiment has improved and tension in European peripheral treasury markets has eased substantially. Two key factors seem to be driving these dynamics: a significant reduction in the risk of a near-term self-fulfilling liquidity crisis in Europe and tentative signs that the global business cycle has moved from a soft patch to a recovery phase. So even with investor eyes firmly focussed on a still clouded horizon, it is understandable that a new hope has cautiously started to build in investor s minds. A new hope that our fragile economic system is not necessarily only surrounded with downside risks and the rays of light that have occasionally started to warm our faces should remind us that uncertain times also create market opportunities. 10Y Bond Yield Forecasts in % 10/02/2012 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2013F US Eurozone Japan Turkey Brazil Russia China (5Y) ING IM Houseview Global Strategy ING Financial Markets Research: ING Economic Forecast

10 Commodities 16 Two commodity sectors so far this year positively stand out. Both precious metals and industrial metals are notable outperformers ytd. At the opposite side of the spectrum are agriculture and in particular energy both underperforming while livestock so far roughly performs in line with the broad commodity index (DJ UBS Commodity Index). The positive correlation between precious metals and industrial metals this year is a trend reversal from last year when correlation was negative. Indeed precious metals last year was the top performing segment while industrial metals was the worst performing sector. Precious metals are likely to be continuously supported by low interest rates. The FED effectively stated its intent tleave rates close to the zero bound till 2014 and argued a new round of QE remains a conditional possibility thereby taking consensus market view somehow by surprise. As real long term interest rates in the US are likely to remain low, the opportunity cost of holding gold is expected to remain low yield at US TIPS is an important driver for the gold price and a return to previous peaks in gold should be a distinct possibility in this respect. Other factors that remain supportive to gold are the continued net buying of central banks out of diversification purposes (in particular in emerging markets) as well as structurally weak mine supply. After having bought 77 tonnes of gold in 2010, central banks bought a further 430 tonnes in 2011 led by Mexico (100 t), Russia (87 t), Thailand (53 t) and South Korea (40 t). Further net buying of gold by central banks is likely. Finally are jewellery demand and demand for bars and coins expected to remain healthy. For the latter China and India are the key consumers with a combined estimated share o52% of gold bar and coin demand and some 55% of jewellery demand. Jewellery demand in China is estimated to have risen by 16% in Anecdotal evidence also indicates stellar demand over the New Year holiday period. Appreciation of emerging market currencies recently also helps precious metals demand out of the region. Price elasticity of gold and silver demand in EM countries at the same time seems to have risen. Global manufacturing data are improving underpinning industrial metals with commodities. Precious metals benefit from a reversal in speculative positioning, rates lower for longer, central bank purchases and appreciating EM currencies. 16 ING IM Houseview Global Strategy

11 GENEL AÇIKLAMA Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve bilgiler, yazanın kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır. Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir. ING Servet Yönetimi Bölümü tarafından sadece bilgi amaçlı olarak hazırlanmış olan bu rapor, hiç bir şekilde bir yatırım önerisi veya herhangi bir yatırım aracının doğrudan alımına veya satımına dair bir teklif veya referans olarak alınmamalıdır. Geçmiş performans, takip eden dönem için bir gösterge değildir. Bu raporda sunulan bilgilerin yayım tarihi itibarıyla yanlış/yanıltıcı olmamasına özen gösterilmiş olmasına karşın, ING BANK bilgilerin doğru ve tam olmasından sorumlu değildir. Bu raporda yer alan bilgiler herhangi bir uyarı yapılmadan değişebilir. Ayrıca, yabancı kurlar üzerinden yatırımlar, kur değişikliklerine tabidir. Herhangi bir işlem yapmadan önce, işlemin sizin özel koşullarınıza uygunluğunu değerlendirmeli ve bağımsız olarak (gerektiğinde uzman danışmanlarınızla) işlemin hukuki, idari, kredi, vergi ve muhasabe açısından sonuçlarının yanısıra spesifik finansal risklerini de incelemelisiniz. ING BANK ve kurum çalışanları bu raporda sunulan bilgilerin kullanılmasından kaynaklanabilecek herhangi bir doğrudan ve/veya dolaylı zarardan ötürü hiçbir şekilde sorumluluk kabul etmemektedir. Telif hakkı saklıdır, herhangi bir amaçla ING BANK ın izni olmadan raporun tamamı veya bir kısmı başka bir yerde yeniden yayımlanamaz, dağıtımı yapılamaz. GENERAL DISCLAIMER The information, comment and advices that are reflected in this material are not in the scope of investment advisory. Investment advisory services could be submitted; in terms of an investment advisory contract to be signed by and between the customer and the brokerage institutions, portfolio management companies and non-deposit banks. The comment and advices expressed here are based on the personal opinions of the author. Any views or opinions presented here are solely the author's personal opinions. These opinions might not suit your financial conditions and risk and revenue preferences. Hence, giving an investment decision by solely depending on the information expressed herein could not be concluded with the results that suit your expectations. This report has been prepared by ING Bank Wealth Management Department solely for information purposes and it does not constitute an investment advisory or a reference to an offer or an invitation to any person to directly buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not a guide to the future. Although the information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled with a care to avoid any wrong/misleading information as of the date of writing, ING Bank A.Ş. does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness. The information contained in this publication can be changed without any prior notice. Furthermore, investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Before entering into any transaction, you should consider the suitability of the transaction to your particular circumstances and independently review (with your professional advisers as necessary) the specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. ING Bank A.Ş. and its employees does not accept liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use hereof. The copy rights are reserved and this report cannot be published or circulated in whole or partially without ING Bank A.Ş.'s consent. 11