Dr.Sergiy Korsunsky Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey
North, Central and South Corridors
Some New Developments since CIS Oil & Gas Transportation 11 th Meeting Ukraine has got new President and new Government. Gas wars no more! A network of agreements signed by RF in Balkans to support South Stream Nabucco is slowly becoming a reality: supply roots are defined, financial package is announced Azerbaijan is very close to finalize deal with Turkey Azerbaijan, Georgia and Romania LNG and/or CNG Shale gas revolution in the United States Development of spot market in Europe Sharp increase in gas production in Qatar Construction of the North Stream has began
EU- 30 Gas Demand in 2020 Gazprom 700 bcm CEDIGAZ 692 bcm IEA - 692 bcm Additional volumes needed approx. 150 bcm North Stream - 55 bcm South Stream 63 bcm Nabucco - 31 bcm Altogether - 149 bcm Sources of additional volumes: Central Asian and Caspian gas Ukrainian system will be needed to transit gas at least at the current volumes
Other (Non- Russian) Sources in Europe LNG Unconventional gas Norway, Algeria, Libya The amount of additional Russian gas needed remains unclear Realities of 2009/2008 : sales of Russian gas in Europe (- 11,6%) Romania (- 42,6%), Macedonia (- 37,8%), B&H (- 30,2%), Greece (- 27,5%), Poland (+14%), GB (+15,9%) Long- term contracts v.s. spot market opportunities are to be taken into account reduction of minimum volumes in contracts: Turkey 27% until 2012, Italy - 23% until 2015 Shale gas: quiet revolution in the US resulted in oversupply of LNG to Europe Qatar is up 37% Reserves of shale gas in Europe 16 tcm
Transit Capabilities Ukrainian System up to 170 bcm with tariff $2,5 (2010) South Stream up to 63 bcm with tariff $5,3 (RWE) Nabucco up to 31 bcm with tariff $2,4 (RWE) Turkey s Interest 14 bcm of supply through Ukraine 0 bcm from the South Stream Up to 10 bcm could be obtained from Nabucco (+ transit fees)
LNG (Algeria + Nigeria) CS- 1 Kofçaz Kırklareli NATURAL GAS PIPELINE SYSTEM IN TURKEY Edirne CS- 2 Zonguldak Bartın 24 İstanbul 36 Ereğli Çaycuma CS- 3 İzmit 16 M.Ereğlisi 30 18 Bolu CS- 4 24 Sakarya Çan 24 24 36 Çanakkale 16 Karacabey Bursa Bilecik 24 CS- 5 40 Ankara 24 20 Aliağa 24 24 Manisa İzmir Aydın 40 Russian Fed (West 6 BCM+ Turusgaz 8 BCM) Balıkesir Turgutlu Muğla Kütahya Uşak Denizli 16 Burdur Eskişehir Afyon Antalya Isparta MEDITERRANEAN Existing Imports (Plateau Period) Contracted Gas Volumes Planned/Hanging Gas Volumes Yapracık 40 Konya 16 Seydişehir BLACK SEA Karaman Samsun Çankırı Amasya Çorum Tokat Yozgat Kırıkkale Sivas 40 Kırşehir Aksaray 40 Ereğli 40 Nevşehir Niğde Kayseri Adana 40 Ceyhan Mersin Kahramanmaraş Ordu Malatya Araban Gaziantep Dörtyol İskenderun Hatay SYRIA Egypt Russian Fed (Blue Stream) 40 Giresun Gümüşhane Elazığ Adıyaman Bozova Şanlıurfa Trabzon Erzincan Rize Bayburt Artvin Erzurum Batman Diyarbakır Mardin Existing Lines Under Construction Ardahan Horasan Şırnak Silopi Kars Tendered or Planned Lines, CS 40 Azerbaijan GEORGIA Iğdır Ağrı Doğubayazıt Van IRAQ Marmara Ereglisi LNG Terminal Planned Underground Storages Turkmenistan Iran Iraq
When it comes to money.
When it comes to the environment Black Sea is a reservoir of hydrogen sulfide substance somewhat soluble in water: acts as an acid, mixture with air is explosive, flammable, very poisonous gas (3 billion tons!) 150-200 meters of the Black Sea are inhabitable, the rest 2000 meters are saturated with hydrogen sulfide with concentration from 0.19 mg/l to 9/6 mg/l If due to corrosion or natural disaster underwater pipeline in the Black Sea brake down deep Black Sea waters enter the pipe (pressure of gas in the pipe is 400 atm, pressure of water at the depth of 2000 meters is 20,000 atm) causing explosion and total distraction of the pipeline The length and depth are of utmost importance! Technology is not a reliable solution look at the Gulf of Mexico!
The Future of Transit Ukrainian system will be needed if even all the streams are built New routs are important, but new fields and sources are much more important for security of supply Win- win- win approach: transparent partnership win for Ukraine full utilization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system (storages!!!) + possible upgrade win for Turkey Nabucco (gas + transit) win for Gasprom no need to built expensive environmentally dangerous pipelines, expanded capabilities through the existing in- land routes