Eğitim Programı CEVI, Ankara, Bilkent Hotel Ankara, Mayıs, 2011

Transkript

1 Eğitim Programı CEVI, Ankara, Bilkent Hotel Ankara, Mayıs, 2011 Pazartesi 16 Mayıs Açılış Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe Universitesi Prof. André Dorsman, Başkan, CEVI Türkiye Elektrik Enerjisi Sektörü ve Elektrik Piyasası Budak Dilli ( TC Enerji ve Tabi Kaynaklar Bakanlığı Eski Enerji İşleri Genel Müdürü) Elektrik Enerjisi sektöründe mevcut durum: kurulu güç, üretim, tüketim analizi. Geleceğe ilişkin projeksiyonlar ve arz-talep dengeleri Elektrik Piyasasının yapısının kısa tanıtımı. Piyasa faaliyetleri ve piyasa katılımcıları. Özelleştirme stratejisi ve mevcut durum Üretim faaliyeti ve üretim yatırımlarının analizi Dağıtım sektöründe durum. Dağıtım ve perakende faaliyetlerinin ayrıştırılması, tarife yapısı Elektrik enerjisi ticareti- yöntemler ve piyasalar: Toptan satış ve perakende faaliyetlerinde rekabet, İkili anlaşmalar, gün öncesi piyasası ve dengeleme piyasası. Piyasa operatörü- sistem operatörü kavramları İletim sistem operatörünün piyasadaki rolü ve önemi ve İletimle ilişkili konular. Yenilenebilir kaynakların kullanımı ve rekabetçi piyasa içerisindeki yeri Öğle Yemeği Avrupa dan Derslerle Türk Elektrik Piyasasında Doğal Gaz Fiyatlandırması: Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Elektrik santrali operatörünün temel sorusu: Doğal gazı hem satın alma maliyetini en aza indirebilecek hem de fiyat iniş-çıkış riskini de kontrol edebilecek şekilde nereden satın alabilirim? Talep: Yıl içinde günlük değişimler ve uzun vadeli projeksiyonlar. Kaynak: Ana üreticilerin ve uzun vadeli projeksiyonların değerlendirilmesi. Uzun dönem marjinal maliyetlere dayalı üretim seçenekleri maliyetlendirmesi ve petrol fiyat endekslemesi. Gaz piyasasında arz talep dengelemesi sonucunda oluşan fiyat belirlemesi ve uzun vadeli anlaşmaların fiyatlandırılması. Ulaşımı kısıtlı gaz sistemindeki doğal gaz piyasasında fiyat oluşumu.

2 Doğal gaz altyapılarında yatırım kararları: boru hatları, LNG ve mevsimlik depolama arasında ölçüp-biçme ve dengeleme. Dünyadaki (coğrafi kapsam ve yaklaşım açısından değişiklikler gösteren) gaz senaryosu modellerinin karşılaştırması: Stanford Enerji Modellemesi Forumu ndan Dersler. Uygulamalı ve doğal gaz piyasasındaki son gelişmelerlerle ilgili güncel bilgiler. Katılımcılara günlük sorulara yanıt bulabilme imkanı yaratacak yönergeli ve uygulamalı çalışmalar içeren eğitim formatı Unbundling (Ayrıştırma) & Liberalizasyon Paul Pottuijt (Gen, Senior Energy Consultant) Avrupa daki durum ve deneyimler Ayrıştırılmış/ liberal enerji piyasalarında referans modeli Ayrıştırılmış/ liberal enerji piyasalarında pazarın işleyişi Ayrıştırılmış/ liberal edilmiş enerji piyasalarında enerji veri yönetiminin rolü ve farklı aşamaları Salı 17 Mayıs Avrupa'dan Derslerle Türk Elektrik Piyasasında Elektrik Fiyatlandırması: Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Elektrik santrali operatörünün temel sorusu : Elektriğimi maksimum satış geliri elde ederken aynı zamanda fiyat iniş-çıkış riskini de kontrol edebilecek şekilde kime satabilirim? Talep: Gün içinde saatlik değişimler, yıl içinde günlük değişimler ve uzun vadeli projeksiyonlar. Kaynak: Kurulu güç, lisanslı birimler ve uzun vadeli projeksiyonlar üzerine rehabilitasyon, özelleştirme ve geliştirme. Elektrik santrali fiyatlandırması: uzun vade ve kısa vade marjinal fiyatlar. Elektrik piyasasında arz talep dengelemesi sonucunda oluşan fiyat belirlemesi. İletimin yetersiz olduğu sistemlerde fiyat oluşturulması. Dağıtılmış üretimin faydalarının ve oranının artırılmasına ilişkin engellerin değerlendirilmesi. Pratik ve elektrik piyasasındaki son gelişmelerle ilgili güncel bilgiler.

3 Katılımcılara günlük sorulara yanıt bulabilme imkanı yaratacak yönergeli ve uygulamalı çalışmalar içeren eğitim formatı. Katılımcılar için birlikte bir durum formüle ederek modelleme aracının yardımıyla sonuçları hesaplama ve tartışma Öğle Yemeği Enerji İletimi ve enerji portföy yönetimine etkileri Paul Pottuijt (Gen, Senior Energy Consultant) Enerji iletimi ile ilgili gelişmelerin özeti Enerji iletimindeki gelişmelere ilişkin GEN in görüşü Enerji İletiminde seçilmiş konular: o Enerji depolaması o Yakıt karmasının değişimi o Akıllı şebekeler o Yenilenebilir enerjiyi teşvik edici politikalar o GEN in rüzgar enerjisi parkları ve enerji portföyü yönetimindeki deneyimleri Panel Prof. ANDRE Dorsman, Başkan, CEVI Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe Universitesi İşletme Bölümü Dr. Wietze Lise, Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant Paul Pottuijt, Gen, Senior Energy Consultant

4 Biography Budak Dilli, the former General Manager / General Directorate of Energy Affairs Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, graduated Middle East University Depatment of Electrical /Electronics Engineering at 1974, then received M.Sc. degre on Electrical/ Electronics. He worked in TEK (TEAS) as a chief engineer during and as Head of Communication Control and Automation Department during Then he has been appointed as a Deputy General Manager of TEAS for four years. He was responsible from Transmission and Generation Planning, Generation and Transmission investments, Communication and Control, Transmission Network operation (partly), Long term expansion plans of transmission network, Optimum generation expansion plans and Tendering, evaluation and contract negotiation for TEAS Generation Investments. Later he has worked in Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources as a General Director, Directorate of Energy Affairs till His responsiblities include energy planning, policies, strategies,energy statistics future supply- demand projections, execution of the concession contracts and long term power purchase agreements, energy sector restructuring and liberalization of electricity and gas markets; policies and measures to ensure, supply security, strategies to create a reliable investment atmosphere for new investments for electricity generation, transmission and distribution, preparation and implementation of renewable energy law, to promote electricity generation from renewable sources, preparation of the policies and strategies for climate change issue. Dr. Wietze Lise is a Senior Energy Consultant at the Energy & Environment unit in Ecorys and he also works as a freelance consultant. He has a graduate diploma in mathematical engineering from Twente University, Holland and he holds a PhD in Economics from Delhi School of Economics. His main work experience is in power and gas markets and long term price projections both in Europe and Turkey. However, he also has sound knowledge and experience in energy-economic modelling, economics of climate change, and resource management. During his eighteen years of research and consultancy experience, he worked in Holland at several research and consultancy companies who were leaders in the energy and environment field. In addition to that, he worked together with multidisciplinary teams both in Europe and Turkey, and acquired, produced and managed a myriad of projects. He has more than thirty published and widely cited scientific articles in various international journals. Since 2006, Wietze Lise has focused his research and consultancy work especially on the Turkish energy market and he lives and works in Turkey. Paul Pottuijt M.Sc. is active as Senior Energy Consultant in the Dutch and Central Western European (CWE) energy market. He graduated at Delft University of Technology, faculty Technology, Policy and Management, section Economics of Infrastructures in At Amsterdam Power Exchange B.V. (nowadays APX-Endex) he wrote his Master thesis on the topic Market transparency improvements for the Dutch wholesale electricity markets (based on international benchmark). After graduation he worked as business analyst Stratergy & Business architecture for 2 years in the liberalization of the Dutch domestic market for electricity and gas. Last 5 years he is active in the integration of electricity markets in the

5 CWE-region. Firstly as project coordinator at APX Group (nowadays APX-Endex) for the first international market coupling project, between Belgian, France and the Netherlands (trilateral market coupling TLC). Secondly, as project manager at the Dutch TSO TenneT for the CWE MC project, the successor project of TLC. Due to his roles at both a Power Exchange and a TSO in the international market coupling projects, Paul Pottuijt has large experience in the complete variety of disciplines involved with energy market integration projects. Ranging from orientation phases, governance structures, regulatory, financial structures, legal/ contractual, operational, etc. Knowledge on these topics varies from both market/ trading perspective as well as from network perspective.

6 Course Program CEVI, Ankara, Bilkent Hotel Ankara, May 16-17, 2011 Monday May hours opening Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe University Prof. André Dorsman, president of CEVI hours Turkish Electrical Energy Sector and Electricity Market Budak Dilli ( Former General Manager / General Directorate of Energy Affairs Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources) Analysis of Turkish Electrical Energy Sector: Installed power, generation, demand Future projections and supply- demand balance A brief summary of Structure of Electricity Market, Market activities and market participants. Privatization strategy and recent developments. Generation activities and investments Distribution sector. Unbundling of distributon and retail activities, tariff structure. Electical energy trading- methods and markets: Wholesale and retail competition, bilateral contracts, day ahead and balancing markets. Market operator- System operator concepts Role and importance of Transmission System Operator (TSO) and transmission related issues. Use of renewable sources and their place in competitive market hours Lunch hours Gas Pricing in Turkish Electricity Market with lessons from Europe Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Main question of power plant operator: from where should I purchase natural gas to minimize the purchase cost while being able to manage the risk of price volatility? Demand: within the year daily variation and long term projections Supply: assessment of main producers and long term projections

7 Costing of production options and oil price indexation based on long-run marginal costs Daily supply-demand balance leading to the balancing price at the spot market and pricing in long term contracts Price formation on the gas market in a transport constrained gas system Investment decision in gas infrastructures: the trade off among pipelines, LNG and seasonal storage Comparison of world gas scenario runs with models varying in geographical coverage, approach and detail: lessons from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Practical and relevant with updates of the latest developments in the gas market Format will be half instruction and half exercise where the participants can work on finding solutions to their day to day challenges hours Unbundling & liberalization EU-directives & guidelines regarding ambition for liberalization of energy markets and the accompanying unbundling developments; Paul Pottuijt (Gen, Senior Energy Consultant) Statuses and experiences in Europe Reference model for liberalized/ unbundled energy markets Market roles for liberalized/ unbundled energy markets Market processes for liberalized/ unbundled energy markets Role and different levels of Energy data management in liberalized/ unbundled energy markets Tuesday May hours Power Pricing in Turkish Electricity Market with lessons from Europe Dr. Wietze Lise (Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant) Main question of power plant operator: to whom should I sell my electricity to maximize the sales revenue while being able to manage the risk of price volatility? Demand: hourly variation within the day, daily variation within the year and long term projections Supply: installed capacity, rehabilitation, privatization, progress on licensed units and long term projections

8 Determining the power plant merit order: long-run versus short-run marginal costs Hourly supply-demand balance leading to the balancing price Price formation on the Power Market in a transmission constrained power system Assessment of the benefits of distributed generation and the barriers towards increasing its share Practical and relevant with updates of the latest developments in the power market Format will be half instruction and half exercise where the participants can work on finding solutions to their day to day challenges Together with the participants one case will be formulated and with the help of a modeling tool results will be calculated and discussed hours Lunch hours Energy transition & impacts on energy portfolio management Paul Pottuijt (Gen, Senior Energy Consultant) Summary of developments regarding Energy transition GEN's view on developments on Energy transition Specific topics on energy transition are: o Energy storage o Change in fuel mix o Smart grids o Stimulation policies of renewable energy o GEN's knowledge on incorporation of wind parks in energy trading portfolio hours Panel Discussion Prof. ANDRE Dorsman, president of CEVI Prof. Mehmet Baha Karan, Hacettepe University Dr. Wietze Lise, Freelance, Senior Energy Consultant Paul Pottuijt, Gen, Senior Energy Consultant