Otomotivde İnovasyon ve Geleceğin Teknolojileri Prof.Dr Orhan Alankuş Okan University 14 Şubat 2015 Boğaziçi Üniversitesi
Automotive Sector in Figures In 2012, 84 Million Vehicles produced Estimation for 2020, 100 million vehicles to be produced 10 million direct employment, 50 million indirect employment 90 billion for R&D Global Turnover more than 2 Trillion ( If a country, 6th biggest economy) Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Otomotiv Sanayinde Gelecek: Değer Zincirinde Değişim Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Üretimden Tüketiciye: Tedarik Zincirinde Stratejik Ortaklık Ham Madde Ara Ürün Motorlu Araç Ham Madde Üreticileri Aksam ve Parça Üreticileri (III-II-I) Taşıt Üretici Satış Pazarlama Tüketici @ 10 Farklı Malzeme @ 5.000 Parça Grubu Farklı Şirketler Değişik Malzeme Farklı Teknolojiler Yüksek Tüketici Beklentisi Max. Performans /Yüksek Güvenlik Mükemmel Konfor ve En Düşük Fiyat Tasarım, ArGe ve Teknoloji Yönetimi Toplam Kalite Yönetimi Lojistik Yönetimi ve Optimizasyon 4 Pazar Fiyatından Maliyete Yönetim
1) ÇİN 3) ABD 2) JAPONYA 4) ALMANYA 5) KORE 6) HİNDİSTAN 7) BREZİLYA 8) MEKSİKA 13) TAYLAND 12) RUSYA 9) İSPANYA 10) FRANSA 14) İNGİLTERE 11) KANADA 15) ÇEK CUMHURİYETİ 16) TÜRKİYE 17) ARJANTİN 18) İRAN 19) İTALYA 20) POLANYA 5.718 4.521 3.881 3.740 3.052 2.532 2.175 2.163 1.740 1.597 1.415 1.133 1.125 791 744 658 583 11.045 9.630 22.116 Küresel Üretim 2013 (x 1.000) Küresel Marka Sahibi Ülkeler OICA-2014
2.981 2.577 2.042 1.870 1.887 1.367 1.121 1.018 848 825 4.490 4.222 6.132 8.147 7.974 7.571 9.917 9.518 Küresel Firmalarda Üretim 2013 (x 1.000) * TOYOTA (Daihatsu) * WV (Porsche) * GM (Chevrolet/Deawoo/Opel) * Renault-Nissan (Lada/) * Suzuki (Maruti) * Geely (Volvo) OICA-2014
285 415 265 360 210 400 160 150 90 200 120 185 1.130 1.710 Türkiye deki Sanayiinin Genel Yapısı - 2014 (x 1.000) 5 Firma (2013 üretiminin % 19 u) AB Dışı * JV-FDI 4 * Lisans 1 6 Firma (2013 üretiminin % 78 i) AB * JV-FDI 5 * Lisans 1 Yerli 2 Firma (2013 üretiminin % 3 ü) FIAT GROUP FORD MAN M.BENZ RENAULT AB Firmaları ROVER GROUP PEUGEOT JV JV FDI JV JV L L ISUZU AB Dışı Firmalar HYUNDAI TOYOTA HONDA MITSUBISHI JV JV FDI FDI L 2.250 2.000 1.750 1.500 1.250 1.000 750 500 250 0 Ford Otosan 2006 2014 Renault Tofaş-Fiat Toyota Hyundai Assan Üretim Kapasitesi (x1000) Diğer TOPLAM Türkiye'deki Motorlu Araçlar Sanayii Önde Gelen Küresel Firmalarla Yoğun Entegrasyon İçindedir Kuruluşunda AB Otomotiv Sanayii Yer Almıştır Gümrük Birliği ile Birlikte U. Doğu Firmaları da Üretime Başlamıştır. AB Firmaları ile Üretim Payı Yüzde 78 iken U. Doğu Firmalarının Üretimdeki Payı Yüzde 19 dur 2014 Yılı İtibarı ile 1,5 Milyonu Otomobil + Hafif Ticari Araç Olmak Üzere Toplam Kapasitesi 1,7 Milyon Araç/Yıl Düzeyindedir
Otomotiv Sanayi Fasıl 87.00 Dış Ticareti (milyon $) Toplam Dış Ticaret 1996/2000 13.735 Milyon $ Açık 2001/2006 1.565 Milyon $ Açık 2007/2010 13.190 Milyon $ Fazla 2011 1.400 Milyon $ Açık 2012 636 Milyon $ Fazla 2013 196 Milyon $ Fazla Toplam Motorlu Taşıt Araçları 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Yılı İlk 8 Ayda Dış Ticaret Fazlası Toplam Dış Ticaret 2,756 Milyon $ Motorlu Taşıt Araçları 2,005 Milyon $ Otomobil 401 Milyon $ İhracat 4.946 8.148 9.429 11.730 15.701 17.991 11.891 13.525 15.447 14.664 16.532 İthalat 5.342 10.108 10.379 11.145 12.035 12.358 8.745 13.177 16.780 14.185 16.494 İhr/İth 0,93 0,81 0,91 1,05 1,30 1,46 1,36 1,03 0,92 1,03 1,00 Fark -396-1.960-950 585 3.666 5.633 3.146 348-1.333 479 38 2013 2014 (8 Ay) (8 Ay) İhracat 10.633 11.695 İthalat 10.619 9.690 İhr/İth 1,00 1,21 Fark 14 2.005 Otomobil 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 İhracat 1.298 2.197 3.934 5.645 6.840 7.474 6.086 6.210 6.486 6.069 6.857 İthalat 2.220 4.214 4.296 4.269 4.747 4.552 4.265 6.820 7.529 7.248 9.127 İhr/İth 0,58 0,52 0,92 1,32 1,44 1,64 1,43 0,91 0,86 0,84 0,75 Fark -922-2.017-362 1.376 2.093 2.922 1.821-610 -1.043-1.179-2.270 2013 2014 (8 Ay) (8 Ay) İhracat 4.583 4.910 İthalat 5.753 4.509 İhr/İth 0,80 1,09 Fark -1.170 401 Kaynak: TÜİK GTİP 87.00 Kara Taşıtları ve Bunların Aksam ve Parçaları Verileri / (Milyon $)
R&D Share of Automotive Sector
Automotive R&D Investment (2012) Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
What is Innovation? An innovation is the implementation of a new or significantly improved product (good or service), or process, a new marketing method, or a new organizational method in business practices, workplace organization or external relations. The minimum requirement for an innovation is that the product, process, marketing method or organizational method must be new (or significantly improved) to the firm. Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Most Innovative Companies of 2013 Boston Consulting Group Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Innovative Company Performance Indicators Ratio of R&D Investment to Turnover? Apple Kodak Kodak Canon Canon Nokia Nokia GM GM BMW BMW Operation R&D/ Operation R&D/ Operation R&D/ Operation R&D/ Operation R&D/ Operation R&D/ Profit Turnover Profit Turnover Profit Turnover Profit Turnover Profit Turnover Profit Turnover 2004 3,9% 5,9% -0,6% 6,3% 15,7% 14,8% 12,8% 3,4% 8,4% 5,3% 2005 11,8% 3,8% -4,2% 6,3% 15,5% 7,6% 13,6% 11,2% 3,5% 8,1% 5,3% 2006 12,7% 3,7% -1,5% 5,4% 17,0% 7,4% 13,3% 9,5% 3,2% 8,3% 5,2% 2007 18,4% 3,3% -3,0% 5,2% 16,9% 8,2% 15,6% 11,1% -2,4% 4,4% 7,5% 5,2% 2008 19,3% 3,4% -0,4% 5,3% 12,1% 9,1% 9,8% 11,8% -14,3% 5,4% 1,7% 5,3% 2009 27,4% 3,1% -0,4% 4,7% 6,8% 9,5% 2,9% 14,4% -20,1% 5,3% 0,6% 5,1% 2010 28,2% 2,7% -4,7% 4,4% 10,5% 8,5% 4,9% 13,8% 3,7% 5,1% 8,4% 4,8% 2011 31,2% 2,2% -10,0% 4,6% 10,6% 8,7% -2,8% 14,5% 3,8% 5,4% 11,7% 4,9% 2012 35,3% 2,2% -13,9% 5,0% 9,3% 8,5% -7,6% 15,9% -19,9% 4,9% 10,2% 5,1% 2013 28,7% 2,6% 9,9% Morning Star EU R&D Scoreboard Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Automotive Sector is Very Competitive Continuous Innovation is a must! Radical Innovation and Incremental Innovation And also Open Innovation! Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Ford T Model Toyota Prius Radical Innovation in Automotive Industry GM Innovation with Alfred Sloan, «segmentation A car for everyone and for every purse» Lean Production / Toyota Production System Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
EU R&D Projects/ Horizon 2020 Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Deployment Towards Connected and Sustainable Mobility in Europe Policy Framework Research & Development European Large Scale Actions J. Jaaskelainen Pilots Field Operational Tests (FOTs) Standards User Awareness Regulation International Cooperation FP6 FOT Method ITS Directive/Action Plan Intelligent Car Initiative esafety Forum imobility Forum ecall Standards CEN/ETSI FP7 The European Green Cars Initiative EU-Japan MoC 17 February Page 182010, H2020 EIP in Transport ecall Pilots CIP Pilots Other pilots Autonomous Vehicle Systems Cooperative Systems EU-US joint declaration Future Internet PPP ETSI in ITS Cooperative Systems standards Choose ESC! campaign esafety Challenge esafety Aware! ITS Committee ecall regulation Tri-lateral cooperation EU - METI Coop. Agreement Japan USA 18 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020
Connected Car Market Forecast
The Internet of Cars
Changing Technology
Electric and Hybrid Car Market Forecast
Innovation in Electric Cars/Disruptive?
TIM TÜRKİYE İHRACAT SENARYOSU
TIM
Innovation on Key Technologies Engine and power train Ergonomy and comfort Safety Light and safe body development Material technologies Alternative power systems Connected vehicles Autonomous vehicles HMI Power storage systems Effective and efficient product development process Agile manufacturing processes
Role of Universities on Innovation Ecosystem and Third Generation Universities Dr. Pasi Malinen
New Skills for Engineers Societal Challanges Changing Environment Sound Knowledge Innovative,creative Soft Skills Enterpreuner Continuous Learning Global Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
ELEKTRONİK ve GÖMÜLÜ YAZILIM GİTES - Otomotiv Sanayii Araç değerinde %30-35 lik pay Önümüzdeki 10 yılda %40-70 lik pay tahmini İnovasyonda %80 lik pay tahmini Motor ve Aktarma Organları Elektroniği Güvenlik Sistemleri Eğlence ve Bilgi Sistemleri Gövde, Şase ve Araç İçi Sistemler Kaynak: FTF 2010 BMW Group Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Otomotiv Elektroniğinin Geleceği
Otomotiv Elektroniğinde Gelecek
Verimli ve rahat ulaşım Güvenli ve emniyetli ulaşım Temiz ve Karbon salımı azaltılmış ulaşım Sürdürülebilir Ulaşım AKILLI ULAŞIM TEKNOLOJİLERİ ÇALIŞTAYI VE SERGİSİ
Hyundai Decision 2012 Hyundai Motor Group recently set up a new unit, Hyundai Autron (a combination of Automotive and Electronics) aiming to enhance its R&D capabilities in automotive electronic systems, semiconductors and software. Hyundai Autron has specified its main business goal as to secure its own technologies in the following five automotive electronics areas 1) Automotive electric and electronic systems, 2) Automotive semiconductors, 3) Automotive software, 4) Electronic controllers, and 5) Vehicle telecommunication standardization. Hyundai aims for technology independence Although Hyundai has heavily invested in its auto parts makers for electronics area such as Mobis, Kefico and Carness, it is still relying on imports and technological supports from foreign makers especially in automotive semiconductors, control systems and software. Prof.Dr. Orhan Alankuş,Okan Üniversitesi, Şubat 2015
Enevate Final Report 2013 Why electric vehicles?
Why Innovative? Weaknesses as of today First practical electric car, built by Thomas Parker in 1884 Low and un predictable range Heavy and volumeous battery Incentive dependance due to high battery cost Lack of charging infrastructure Lithium dependance Possible safety problems for batteries TESLA X Model
Clayton Christensen Disruptive Innovation
Electric Car Performance Estimations 130 mph Tesla S 90 mph Nissan Leaf Tesla S model 306 Miles with 85 kwhr battery and 55 mph highway speed Nissan Leaf 85 miles average 24 kwhr battery 3,2 Sec Tesla S Clayton Christensen 9,7 sec Nissan Leaf
AVL BATTERY TECHNOLOGY FUTURE Electric Vehicles Integration and Modern Power Network 2013, Elsevier Lİ-Sulfur??
Innovative Design Light, ergonomic Economic Efficient Functional Intelligent Innovative vehicle
Electromobility influences a lot of Power Train: Human Car Interface: Electric Machine, Electric Generator, Clutch, Gear Box, Braking System, New Control Concepts, HMI, Range Analysis components Architectur: BUS, CAN Systems System Engine Car Body: Komponenten Verbrennungsmotor Gesamtsumme Kosten bei hoher Stückzahl New Car Concepts, Lightweight Constructions, NVH, Aerodynamics Referenz Kosten bei geringer Stückzahl Referenz zugrunde liegende Ref. Verbrennungsmotor Engine V-6 10,9$/kW + 693$ EPRI 2001 Engine L-4 12$/kW + 424$ Kosten EPRI bei 2001 hoher Kosten bei geringer Engine System 14,5$/kW Komponenten + 531$ NREL 2006 Referenz EPRI Referenz Stückzahl Stückzahl Graham Engine Thermal thermisches 0,236$/kW (Peak Management Power) EPRI 2001 Power E/E Abgasanlage Electronics Exhaust System Motor (incl. 300$ 3-Way Controller - 900$ Catalyst) Abgasanlage MIT 2008 (inkl. Dreiwegekatalysator) Exhaust System Nox Motor 800$ After-Treatment, Controller Diesel 7,50 /kw Partikel MIT = 11,25$/kW 2007 Filter Christidis 2005 AC25 /kw = 37,5$/kW Concawe Christidis 2006 2005 ACUC, Weiss Davis 2000/2003 2003, ANL Cuenca 1999 Exhaust System Motor 500$ Controller 5,70 /kw MIT = 8,55$/kW 2007 Christidis 2005 DC18,90 /kw =28,35$/kW Christidis 2005 DCUC Davis 2003, ANL Cuenca 2000 EffizienztechnologienLeistungselektronik CO2 Optimization CO2 Power 700$ Optimierung Electronics GDI VVLT, 6$/kW Inverter Gewichtsreduktion, MIT DC/AC 2008 Wechselrichter VTEC, Agujar DC/AC Zylinderabschaltung, 2006 7,075$/kW Double + 165$ Camshaft-phasing Concawe EPRI 2001 2006, (Dual Weiss overhead 2004 Cam DOHC) CO2 Optimization CO2 350$ Optimierung - 600$ GDI VVLT, Lipman Gewichtsreduktion, 2006 Friction Improvement VTEC, Zylinderabschaltung, Double Camshaft-phasing (Dual overhead Cam DOHC) CO2 Optimization Sonstiges 200$ CO2 Elektronik Optimierung GDI VVLT, Delucchi Gewichtsreduktion, 2000 VTEC, Zylinderabschaltung, Double Camshaft-phasing (Dual overhead Cam DOHC) Turbo Charger Additional 500$ Wiring Kabelbaum 100-200$ MIT 2008 MIT 2008 Duleep 2007 EEA 2002 Turbo Charger Electronics 270$ Thermal (Thermal 1$/kW + Management EUCAR 70$ 2006 System, CONCAWE, EPRI Heat 2001 Transfer EU-JRC Device, (2006 Fans or Pumps, Radiator, Renault Control Daimler System unpublished ) Elektronik Thermik (Thermal-Management-System, Wärme Start & Stop 300$ - 450$ Tu Wien 2009 IFP Unpublished Energy Gesamtsumme Transmission Getriebe, Storage / Kupplung bezogen auf VM Annahme Prius auf komplette Motorleistung da hybrid Tanksystem Transmission / Fuel Getriebe 315x(hoch Storage (Tank) -0,3)/kWTankanlage 10$ Dixon 2002 (9,96$/kW EPRI 2001 bei 100.000, 8,0$/kW bei 200.000) Transmission 1Speed 200$ MIT 2007 Weiss 2000 Transmission 2Step Starterbatterie 300 =450$ F&S 2009 Accessory Battery Starterbatterie 15$ EPRI 2001 Accessory Nebenaggregate 50 = 75$ F&S 2009 Electric Traction zugrunde liegende Ref. ICE Air Conditioning Traktionsbatterie EV 400$ Heater, Thermal Management Delucchi 2000 HEV EV Air Conditioning Energy 850$ EV Cell Heater, Hi-Engery Thermal 60% Management = 450$/kWh Delucchi 2000 Li-Tech 2009 High 100% Energy = 750$/kWh (10.000.000) Li-Tech 2009 High Energy (10.000) Power Steering Pump Energy Servounterstützung 50$ Cell Hi-Power 85% = 637,5$/kWh EPRI 2001 Li-Tech 2009 High 150% Power = 1125$/kWh (10.000.000) Li-Tech 2009 High Power (10.000) E-Steering (Electric Power Battery 170-190 Steering Auxiliaries = with 255$-285$ Rack 8$-40$/kWh (Battery & Pinion tray F&S and Gear) 2009 straps, E-Lenkung electrical Dixon Annahme wire 2002 harness, 50% (gerechnet Aufschlag bus bars mit and für 24$ kleine terminal, als Stückzahlen Durchschnitt cooling/ventilation 8/24) system) Delucchi 2000 Pack Tray / Batteriegehäuse 5$/kWh + 130$ EPRI 2001 Pack Hardware (Battery Control System) Hardware-Pack 5$/kWh + 460$ EPRI 2001 Elektrischer Antrieb Battery Thermal (Battery Thermal Management System) Batterie 5$/kWh thermisches + 90$ Management EPRI 2001 Final Assembly Battery/Fuel Tanks 74$ Delucchi 2000 Anlasser, Lichtmaschine StarterMotor / Alternator 40$ / Lichtmaschine EPRI 2001 Brennstoffzellensystem Fuel Cell System 75$/kW MIT 2007 Elektrische Maschine Fuel Cell System 200$/kW Agujar 2006 1500$/kW Aguajar 2006 Electric Motor AC Fuel Elektromotor 8,97 Cell /kw Auxiliary = 13.45$/kW 15$/kW Christidis 2005 AC13,5 Dixon /kw 2002 = 20,25$/kW Christidis 2005 ACUC Davis 2003, ANL FCTAP Cuenca 1998 1999 Electric Motor PDMC 11,37 Elektromotor /kw = 17$/kW Christidis 2005 PMDC 19,56 /kw = 29,3$/kW Christidis 2005 PMDC UC Davis 2003, ANL Cuenca 2001 Charging Glider Wasserstofftank Hydrogen Tank Hydrogen Tank / Wasserstofftank 15$/kW MIT 2008 NRC 2005 / 750$/kg Wasserstofftank Eaves 2003 (--> 2288$ für 3,2kg) Padro 1999 Aufladung Ladegerät On-board Charger 380$ EPRI 2001 On-board Charger 2000$ Burgelman 2009 Stanford (aus Tabelle gemessen) Cable, Connector 80$ Kabel, Stecker EPRI 2001 Restliches Fahrzeug Energy Systems: Li-Ionen Batteries, Flywheel, Fuel-Cell, SuperCaps Infrastructure: Fast Charging and Battery Swapping Thermal Control: Air Conditioning, electric Heating, Cooling for Battery, Power Electronics, E-Motor Power Electronics: Inverter, Converter, ECU, Charging Management Auxiliaries: Power Steering, Accessory Power, electric Compressors
Changing Market Players
Otomotiv Üretimi Problem Çözme Teknikleri Takım Çalışması Yalın Üretim İletişim Teknikleri Proje Yönetimi Çevre Üretim Ekonomisi Deney Tasarımı ve Analizi
Okan University Innovative E-Mobility Clustering Project «E-HIKE» Innovative and Sustainable Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Technologies Development and Clustering Center Project, «E-HIKE» funded by Istanbul Development Agency Project Aim ; Form a cluster with stakeholder companies Develop innovative business solutions and technologies for the stackholders Analysis the whole value chain Form the basic research structure Develop innovative concepts for o o o o o Urban Electric Vehicle Design Energy management Battery management Light and safe vehicle body structure Electric engines