Emerging Europe Energy Summit 1
Contents Development Trend of Turkish Electricity Market Electricity Generation Statistics in Turkey Demand Forecast for Turkey Investment Requirement for Turkey EÜAŞ Power Plants Privatization process in Electricity Generation Plants 2
Timeline of Turkish Electricity Market Law of Transfer of Operating Rights (#3096) Law of Build- Operate- Transfer (#3996) Law of Build- Own-Operate (# 4283) Electricity Market Law (# 4628) Energy Strategy Report Communiqué of Financial Settlement Balancing and Settlement Regulation Renewable Energy Law (#5346) Law of Energy Efficiency (#5627) Law of Geothermal Energy (#5686) Law of Nuclear Energy (#5654) Privatization of Generation Companies TEDAŞ TEK TEAŞ Establishment of Energy Market Regulatory Authority %29 Free Market EÜAŞ TEİAŞ TETAŞ Supply Reliability and Quality Regulation August 1, 2006 Balancing and Settlement In Operation Privatization of Distribution Companies %100 Free Market 3
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.234 4.186 5.116 9.119 16.315 17.206 18.713 20.335 20.857 20.951 21.164 21.889 23.263 26.125 27.264 28.332 31.752 35.564 36.824 38.820 40.500 40.834 41.744 44.556 46.455 Installed Capacity Development in Turkey September 2010 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 4
Share of Producers in Turkey s Installed Capacity - September 2010 MW EÜAŞ 24.199,6 BO 13,13% Build Own Operate 6.101,8 Generation Companies 9.667,4 EÜAŞ 52,09% Gen. Com. 20,81% Auto Prod. 6,75% Auto Producers 3.134,2 Build Operate Transfer 2.439,4 Transfer of Operation Rights 650,1 BOT TOR Mobile 5,25% 1,40% 0,57% Mobile 262,7 TOTAL 46.455,2 5
Share of the Resources in Turkey s Installed Capacity- Sept. 2010 Hydraulic MW 15.138,3 Geothermal 0,20% Natural Gas 15.042,5 Asphaltite 0,29% Lignite + Hard Coal Others 8.474,7 2.760,7 Wind 2,46% Imported Coal 2.081,0 Liquid Fuels 3,41% Liquid Fuels Wind 1.583,9 1.145,1 Imported Coal 4,48% Asphaltite 135,0 Others 5,94% Geothermal TOTAL 94,2 46.455,2 Lignite + Hard Coal Natural Gas 18,24% 32,38% Hydraulic 32,59% 6
13.128 14.382 15.585 16.136 16.169 17.117 22.435 22.440 19.908 23.234 21.606 24.364 24.665 24.627 24.850 24.850 2003-2010 Installed Capacity Development For Public and Private Sector MW PUBLIC PRIVATE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003-2010 Increase For Public Sector : 2003-2010 Increase For Private Sector : 10,76% 64,57% 7
TURKEY ELECTRICITY GENERATION MAP 8
140.580 150.698 161.956 176.300 191.558 198.418 194.813 157.776 209.063 G W h 51.287 Electricity Generation in Turkey 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 9 Months Real 2008 2009 2010 9 Months Real + 3 Months Programme 3 Months Planned Programme 2010 (9 Months Real + 3 Months Planned Programme) 9
Distribution of Electricity Generation of Turkey by Primary Resources (September 2010) MWh Natural Gas 69.736.749 Hydraulic 41.383.609 Lignite 26.787.147 Import Coal 10.174.046 Liquid Fuels 4.004.425 Wind 1.896.091 Hard Coal 2.398.841 Geothermal 467.839 Others Asphaltite Geothermal Hard Coal Wind Liquid Fuels Import Coal Lignite %0,16 %0,43 %0,30 %1,52 %1,20 %2,54 %6,45 %16,98 Asphaltite 673.943 Hydraulic %26,23 Others 253.039 T O T A L 157.775.730 Natural Gas %44,20 %0 %5 %10 %15 %20 %25 %30 %35 %40 %45 %50 10
Share of the Producers in Turkey s Generation (September 2010 ) Transfer of Operation Rights 3.281,4 Build Own Operate ; 21,31% Generation Companies; 17,33% Auto Producers; 6,70% Build Operate Transfer; 6,45% Build-Own-Transfer 10.177,6 Transfer of Operation Rights; %2,08 Auto Producers 10.563,8 EÜAŞ; 46,13% Generation Companies 27.345,2 Build-Own-Operate 33.620,3 EÜAŞ 72.787,4 157.776 GWh 11
63.097 77.484 68.017 82.681 73.462 72.787 88.494 84.530 91.770 84.988 97.717 100.701 2003-2010 Generation Development For Public and Private Sector GWh PUBLIC PRIVATE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 September 2003-2009 Increase For Public Sector : 41,77% 2003-2009 Increase For Private Sector : 35,98% 12
63.097 68.018 73.462 84.530 92.327 97.717 89.454 72.787 140.580 150.698 161.956 176.300 157.776 191.558 198.418 194.813 EÜAŞ Share in Turkish Electricity Generation GWh 240.000 220.000 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 44,8% 45,1% 45,3% 47,9% 48,2% TURKEY 49,2% EÜAŞ 45,9% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 September 46,1% 13
EÜAŞ Summary (September / 2010) INSTALLED CAPACITY As of September / 2010; EÜAŞ (with its total installed capacity of 24.199 MW) provided 52,1% of installed capacity of Turkey. EÜAŞ 52,09% OTHER 47,91% ELECTRICITY GENERATION With its 72,8 billion kwh electricity generation, EÜAŞ provided 46,1% of total Turkish electricity generation. EÜAŞ 46,13% OTHER 53,87% 14
EÜAŞ Installed Capacity 24.199 MW 106 HYDRAULIC PP 19 THERMAL PP 15
Distribution of Installed Capacity of EÜAŞ By Primary Resources Natural Gas %16,87 Liquid Fuels %2,81 Hard Coal %1,24 Lignite %30,83 Hydraulic %48,24 16
Thermal Power Plants HAMĠTABAT NG Kırklareli AMBARLI Fuel-Oil AMBARLI NG ÇATALAĞZI PP HOPA Fuel-Oil İstanbul Zonguldak Artvin Çanakkale ÇAN PP Bursa Kütahya ORHANELĠ PP BURSA NG SEYĠTÖMER PP TUNÇBĠLEK PP Sivas KANGAL PP ALĠAĞA İzmir Manisa SOMA A SOMA B AFġĠN-ELBĠSTAN A PP AFġĠN-ELBĠSTAN B PP Muğla K. Maraş YENĠKÖY PP YATAĞAN PP KEMERKÖY PP 17
Thermal Power Plants Fuel Type MW AFŞİN-ELBİSTAN A Lignite 1.355 AFŞİN-ELBİSTAN B Lignite 1.440 SEYİTOMER Lignite 600 KANGAL Lignite 457 TUNÇBİLEK Lignite 365 ÇATALAĞZI Lignite 300 18 MART ÇAN Lignite 320 ORHANELİ Lignite 210 BURSA Natural Gas 1.432 AMBARLI Natural Gas 1.351 ALİAĞA Natural Gas 180 AMBARLI Fuel-Oil 630 HOPA Fuel-Oil 50 ÇUKURCA Diesel-Oil 1 Fuel Type MW HAMİTABAT Natural Gas 1.120 KEMERKÖY Lignite 630 SOMA A-B Lignite 1.034 YENİKÖY Lignite 420 YATAĞAN Lignite 630 TOTAL 3.834 TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY: 12.525 MW T O T A L 8.691 18
Hydraulic Power Plants Aydın KEMER ANTALYA and Surroundings GÖKÇEKAYA DEMĠRKÖPRÜ Manisa Denizli ADIGÜZEL Burdur Antalya EskiĢehir KARACAÖREN ALTINKAYA Hasan-Suat UĞURLU Ankara GEZENDE KırĢehir Ġçel SARIYAR HĠRFANLI MENZELET Adana Samsun Tokat Sivas K.MaraĢ Osmaniye ALMUS- KÖKLÜCE KILIÇKAYA KEBAN ASLANTAġ Giresun ÇATALAN ADANA and Surroundings DOĞANKENT Elazığ ġanlıurfa Rize Diyarbakır KARAKAYA ATATÜRK Eastern Black Sea and Surroundings Van VAN 19
EÜAŞ Hydro Power Plants MW ATATÜRK 2.405 KARAKAYA 1.800 KEBAN 1.330 ALTINKAYA 702 HASAN UGURLU 500 GÖKÇEKAYA 278 KARKAMIS 189 OZLUCE 170 ÇATALAN 168 SARIYAR 160 GEZENDE 159 ASLANTAS 138 HIRFANLI 128 MENZELET 124 KILIÇKAYA 120 OTHERS 3.580 TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY: 11.674 MW 20
1999-2009 Turkey Electric System Actual Peak Time and Energy Demand 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Peak Time Demand (MW) Increase (%) Energy Demand (GWh) Increase (%) 18938 11,9 118485 12,3 19390 2,4 128276 8,3 19612 1,1 126871-1,1 21006 7,1 132553 4,5 21729 3,4 141151 6,5 23485 8,1 150018 6,3 25174 7,2 160794 7,2 27594 9,6 174637 8,6 29249 6,0 190000 8,8 30517 4,3 198085 4,2 2009 29870-2,1 194079-2,0 21
Demand Forecast (High Scenario) Peak Time Demand (MW) Increase (%) Energy Demand (GWh) Increase (%) 2010 31246 4,5 202730 4,5 2011 33276 6,5 215907 6,5 2012 35772 7,5 232101 7,5 2013 38455 7,5 249508 7,5 2014 41339 7,5 268221 7,5 2015 44440 7,5 288338 7,5 2016 47728 7,4 309675 7,4 2017 51260 7,4 332591 7,4 2018 55053 7,4 357202 7,4 22
Demand Forecast (Low Scenario) Peak Time Demand (MW) Increase (%) Energy Demand (GWh) Increase (%) 2010 31246 4,5 202730 4,5 2011 32964 5,5 213880 5,5 2012 35173 6,7 228210 6,7 2013 37529 6,7 243500 6,7 2014 40044 6,7 259815 6,7 2015 42727 6,7 277222 6,7 2016 45546 6,6 295519 6,6 2017 48553 6,6 315023 6,6 2018 51757 6,6 335815 6,6 23
Turkey Electricity Energy Demand Forecasts milyar kwh LOW SCENARIO HIGH SCENARIO 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 357,2 335,8 198,4 194,0 194,0 2008 2009 2018 HIGH SCENARIO (%7,4) LOW SCENARIO (%6,6) 24
Investment Requirements For Meeting the Demand : The Requirement for New Capacity For new capacity: Financing Requirements According to the generation planning, even if 120 billion kwh lignite and 130 billion kwh our hydraulic resources are all used in electricity generation, the demand can not be met against the 357.2 billion request kwh in the year 2018 foreseen as high scenario. For this reason, as well as domestic lignite and hydraulic resources, diversifying energy sources, investments based on nuclear and renewable energy sources should be accelerated. In order to meet the demand for the year 2018, an investment of 6-8 billion dollars should be made to create additional capacity of 3000-4000 MW each year. 25
Investment Requirement Between 2009-2018 approx. 20.000 MW additional installed capacity is required To reach to this capacity approx. 40. B$ Finance is needed. 26
Privatization in Electricity Generation Plants According to the strategy document issued in 2004, portfolio groups have been formed for privatization According to the new strategy document issued on 18 May, 2009, the privatization process will start in the year 2010-2011. In accordance with this goal, preperations are carried out by Privatization Office. 27
PRIVATIZATION ACTIVITIES FOR EÜAŞ GENERATION PLANTS 27 Hydraulic Power Plants, 18 Thermal Power Plants will be privatized. 28
EÜAŞ Thermal PP to be Privatized Name Fuel type Location Installed 2009 Generation MW MWh Çatalağzı Hard coal ZONGULDAK 300,0 1.851.120 Afşin-Elbistan "A" Lignite K.MARAŞ 1.355,0 4.114.420 Afşin-Elbistan "B" Lignite K.MARAŞ 1.440,0 7.842.950 18 Mart Çan Lignite ÇANAKKALE 320,0 1.949.742 Orhaneli Lignite BURSA 210,0 1.201.970 Seyitömer Lignite KÜTAHYA 600,0 4.021.980 Tunçbilek Lignite KÜTAHYA 365,0 1.606.055 Kangal Lignite SİVAS 457,0 1.658.195 Ambarlı Natural Gas İSTANBUL 1.350,9 8.441.179 Bursa Natural Gas BURSA 1.432,0 8.478.111 Aliağa Natural Gas İZMİR 180,0 305.936 Ambarlı Fuel-Oil İSTANBUL 630,0 974.385 Hopa Fuel-Oil ARTVİN 50,0 0 EÜAŞ T O T A L 8.689,9 42.446.043 Hamitabat Natural Gas KIRKLARELİ 1.120 6.694.398 Soma A+B Lignite MANİSA 1.034 4.795.956 Kemerköy Lignite MUĞLA 630 3.011.460 Yeniköy Lignite MUĞLA 420 900.960 Yatağan Lignite MUĞLA 630 3.266.135 SUBSIDIARIES TOTAL 3.834 18.668.909 T O T A L 12.523,9 61.114.952 29
EÜAŞ Hydraulic PP to be Privatized Name Location Installed Capacity 2009 Generation MW M W h 1 ADIGÜZEL Denizli 62,000 89.426 2 ALMUS Tokat 27,000 129.068 3 ALTINKAYA Samsun 702,550 436.015 4 ASLANTAŞ Osmaniye 138,000 650.178 5 ÇAMLIGÖZE Sivas 32,000 93.196 6 ÇATALAN Adana 168,900 627.084 7 DEMİRKÖPRÜ Manisa 69,000 108.461 8 DERBENT Samsun 56,400 101.169 9 GEZENDE İçel 159,375 475.668 10 GÖKÇEKAYA Eskişehir 278,400 420.289 11 HASAN UĞURLU Samsun 500,000 1.658.423 12 HİRFANLI Kırşehir 128,000 91.507 13 KAPULUKAYA Kırıkkale 54,000 56.915 14 KARACAÖREN-I Burdur 32,000 52.454 15 KARKAMIŞ Gaziantep 189,000 285.774 16 KEMER Aydın 48,000 87.541 17 KESİKKÖPRÜ Ankara 76,000 58.768 18 KILIÇKAYA Sivas 120,000 344.071 19 KOÇKÖPRÜ Van 8,800 17.501 20 KÖKLÜCE Tokat 90,000 615.095 21 KÜRTÜN Gümüşhane 85,000 203.834 22 MENZELET Kahramanmaraş 124,000 460.055 23 ÖZLÜCE Elazığ 170,000 496.276 24 SARIYAR Ankara 160,000 312.533 25 SUAT UĞURLU Samsun 69,000 414.561 26 YENİCE Ankara 37,890 97.245 27 ZERNEK (HOŞAP) Van 3,450 7.749 Number Total Hydraulic PP with Dam to be Privatized 3.588,765 8.390.856 30
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