WHAT DOES THE ABUNDANCE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION IN 2007 SIGNAL? YEN NfiADA 2007 BEREKET NEY N fiaret? OKAN DURU

Transkript

1 WHAT DOES THE ABUNDANCE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION IN 2007 SIGNAL? YEN NfiADA 2007 BEREKET NEY N fiaret? OKAN DURU Dünya gemi infla sanayi 2007 y l n n ilk yar s nda çarp c siparifl hacmi ile tarihi seviyelere do ru t rman yor. Tersane kapasite kullan m oranlar oldukça yüksek seviyelere ulafl yor ve yeni tersane yat r mlar da, baflta Çin gemi infla sanayi olmak üzere ard ard na geliyor. Ucuz iflçilik avantaj, Kore ve Japon gemi infla devlerini Çin piyasas na sokuyor, yeni yat r mlar n bu bölgeye yönlendiriyor. A ustos ay nda hizmete giren Yangzijiang Tersanesi, planlanan zamandan dört ay önce faaliyete geçerek, mevcut siparifl defterini erken teslimatlarla tamamlama flans n kazanm fl oldu. Navlun piyasalar nda yaflanan tarihi zirve rakamlar sonras nda, yeni infla sipariflleri iki kat na kadar ç km fl durumda. World shipbuilding industry is rising to historical levels with the dramatic order volumes seen in the first half of Shipyard utilization ratios are approaching rather high levels and new shipyard investments are following one another with China leading the way. The advantage of cheap labor pushes Korean and Japanese shipbuilding giants into the Chinese market, and diverts new investments into this region. Yangzijiang shipyard, which was commissioned in the month of August, started its operations 4 months earlier than planned and thus has the opportunity to complete its order book with early deliveries. Following the historical peak values experienced in the freight markets, new orders for shipbuilding has already doubled. G emi infla sanayisinde yaflanan bu s cak günlerin sebebleri konusunda çeflitli de erlendirmeler mevcut. Ancak genel olarak navlun piyasas n n yaratt zincirleme etkiler olarak özetleyebiliriz. KURU YÜK F LOSUNDA YATIRIMCILAR NEY N PEfi NDE Bu y l n ilk yar s nda gerçekleflen yeni infla siparifllerini inceledi inizde, kuru yük filosunda farkedece iniz rakamlar n hayret verici düzeylerde oldu unu görürsünüz y l n n ilk yar s nda toplam 729 adet kuru yük gemisi siparifli verilmifl. Muhakkak tanker ve konteyner tipi gemilerde de oldukça yüksek miktarda siparifl var. Ancak her nas lsa, kuru yük filosu ile ilgili büyük beklentiler oldu- u kesin. Bu beklentilerin çok büyük oranda 50,000-60,000 dwt super-handymax/ panamax segmentinde yo unlaflt n görmekte- T here are various evaluations as to the reasons for these hot days encountered in the shipbuilding industry. However, we may summarize this in general as the chain reaction created by the freight market. WHAT DO THE INVESTORS WANT TO ACHIEVE IN THE DRY CARGO VESSEL FLEET? When we inspect the new building orders realized in the first half of this year, the numbers that we find in the dry cargo vessel fleet are at an astounding level. A total of 729 dry cargo vessel orders were placed in the first half of It is certain that tanker and container type vessel orders are also rather high. But somehow, it is certain that there are great expectations with regards to the dry cargo vessel fleet. We see that these expectations intensify in a substantial manner in the 50,

2 yiz. Bu segmentteki siparifl hacmi toplam 264 parça gemiden olufluyor. Gemilerin teslimat tarihleri ise aral nda öngörülüyor. Bu ise 2-3 y ll k bir dönemde 264 parça yeni geminin markette nomine edilece i anlam na geliyor. Do rusu oldukça iddial bir yat r m hareketi. Kuru yük siparifllerinde 146 parça large-capesize, yani 120,000 dwt ve üzeri segmentte gemi öngörülüyor. Bu gemilerin tonajlar büyük oranda 170, ,000 dwt aral na odaklanm fl durumda. Large-capesize segmentinde özellikle Japon demir cevheri ve kömür hatlar için planlanm fl gemiler mevcut. Ayr ca Avustralya, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika kömür ve demir cevheri havzalar nda çal flmalar devam eden projeler ile gerek maden iflleme kapasitesi ve gerekse kara lojistik yat r mlar gerçeklefltiriliyor. Baflta Çin olmak üzere yo unlukla Uzakdo u ithalatç lar n n taleplerini karfl - 60,000 dwt super-handymax / panamax segment. The order volume totals 264 vessels in this segment. The delivery dates of the ships on the other hand show up as 2009 to This means 264 vessels will be nominated in the market within a two to three-year period. This stands out as a very bold investment initiative. In dry cargo vessel orders, there are 146 units that show in the segment of large-capesize, that is 120,000 dwt and above. The tonnages of these vessels are largely concentrated in the 170, ,000 dwt range. Vessels especially planned for Japan iron ore and coal lines exist in the large-capesize segment. Furthermore, ongoing mine operating capacity as well as land logistic investments are realized for coal and iron ore basins in Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Efforts are made to achieve a service capacity that satisfies the demand of mainly the Far MARINE & COMMERCE SEPTEMBER

3 Gemi infla sanayi siparifl hacmi dikkat çekici boyutlarda. Aslan pay ise dökme kuru yük filosunda. Order volume of shipbuilding industry is at an eye catching level. The lion s share goes to bulk carrier fleet. layabilecek servis kapasitesine ulaflmaya çal fl l yor. Artan talepler karfl s nda periyodunda y ll k ortalama 40 parça geminin bu hatlara dahil olmas bekleniyor. Di er yandan capesize tonaj nda ( k dwt) siparifl defteri de hayli kabar k. 123 parça gemi bu senenin ilk yar s nda programa al nd. Handymax tonaj nda 84 ve handysize tonaj nda 74 parça gemi bu y l n ilk alt ay nda siparifl edildi. Teslimat tarihleri benzer flekilde periyoduna rastl yor. Tanker siparifllerinde ise ürün tankeri sipariflleri dikkat çekici. Yerinde rafinasyon stratejileri ile ithalatç lar n ifllenmifl a r petrol ürünleri sevkiyat na yönelmesi; rafineri maliyetleri yerine tafl - mac l k maliyetlerinin tercih edilmesi, ürün tankeri talebini tetikleyen baz unsurlard r nin ilk yar s nda 176 tanker siparifli ürün tankeri klas nda yap lm fl. Ham petrol klas nda ise 108 siparifl görülüyor. Kimyasal madde tankerlerinde bu y l yap lan siparifller 67 adet. Ancak bu siparifllerin yar s ndan fazlas 10,000-20,000 dwt aral nda gerçekleflmifl. Özellikle 12,000-13,000 dwt segmentinde ciddi y lmalar mevcut. Bir di er önemli not ise, yap lan siparifllerde Koreli STX tersanesinin gösterdi i yüksek performans. STX bu sene 18 parça siparifli sadece bu segmentte ald. STX tersanesi Çin tesisleri ile de sektördeki büyüme trendini art r yor. Gerçeklefltirdi i halka arz operasyonlar ile elde edilen güçlü finansman oldukça baflar l yönetiliyor. STX ayr ca Kore de en iyi 100 endüstri kuruluflu aras nda yer al yor. Eastern importers with China at the top of the list. An average of 40 vessels is expected to be annually included in these lines, in view of the increasing demand, within the period. On the other hand, the order book for capesize tonnage ( k dwt). A total of 123 vessels were taken into program in the first half of this year. Orders for 84 Handymax tonnage and 74 Handysize tonnage were placed in the first half of this year. The delivery dates similarly will be period. Product tanker orders stand out within the tanker orders. With importers focusing more on the heavy petroleum product shipments with on location refining strategies, freight costs being preferred to refinery costs are some of the factors that trigger the demand for product tankers. There were 176 tanker orders made in the product tanker class in the first half of There are 108 orders that show up in the crude oil class. The orders for tankers related to chemicals this year amount to 67. However, more than half of these orders were realized in the 10,000-20,000 dwt range. There is serious piling up especially in the 12,000-13,000 dwt segment. Another important note is the high performance STX shipyard of Korea shows in the orders. STX was awarded 18 orders in this segment. STX shipyard is increasing the growth trend of the sector with its facilities in China. The financing strength obtained through public offering has been managed very successfully. Furthermore, STX has made the top 100 best industrial establishment list of Korea. The sustainability of this growth will be evaluated in the conclusions section of this paper. MARKET TARGETS OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES Effects of Fleet Deficits and Scrap Sales in As observed, it is not at all difficult to sense the optimism, predominantly in the special tonnage, from the orders received by the shipbuilding industry. In this sense, there are no doubts that the bulk carrier fleet has undertaken the leading role. The concentration of orders especially in super-handymax and high tonnage and their targeting the period are based on a few fundamental realities and assumptions. DÜNYA PANAMAX YEN NfiA S PAR filer 2007 WORLD BULKER ORDERS-PANAMAX 2007 (TONNAGE-SIZE) DÜNYA DÖKME KURU YÜK YEN NfiA S PAR filer 2007 WORLD BULKER ORDERS 2007 (TONNAGE-SIZE) (60 k dwt-80 k dwt); 34 Large Capesize (120 k dwt+); 146 Handysize (10 k dwt-30 k dwt+); 74 Handysize (30 k dwt-50 k dwt+); 84 (50 k dwt-60 k dwt); 264 Capesize (80 k dwt-120 k dwt+); 123 (50 k dwt-80 k dwt+); 298 (50 k dwt-60 k dwt) (60 k dwt-80 k dwt) Handysize (10 k dwt-30 k dwt+) Capesize (80 k dwt-120 k dwt+) Handysize (30 k dwt-50 k dwt+) Large Capesize (120 k dwt+) (50 k dwt-80 k dwt+) 068

4 Product Tanker 176 Chemical Tanker TANKER S PAR filer 2007 TANKER ORDERS 2007 LNG LPG Tanker Chemical Tanker 67 Tanker 108 Product Tanker LNG 10 YATIRIM STRATEJ LER N N P YASA HEDEFLER Filo Aç klar ve Hurda Sat fllar Etkisinde Görüldü ü üzere baz özel tonajlar a rl kl olmak üzere gemi infla sanayinin bu y l ald siparifllerde iyimserlik kokusunu almak zor de il. Bu anlamda hiç kuflku yok ki, dökme kuru yük filosu baflrolü üstleniyor. Super-handymax ve yüksek tonajdaki siparifllerin özellikle bu y l yo unlaflmas ve periyodunu hedef almas asl nda bir kaç temel gerçe e ve varsay ma dayan yor. Kuru yük filosunun mevcut istatistikleri çok önemli bir veriyi bizlere sunuyor. Geçti imiz dört y ll k markette oldukça karl durumdaki navlun piyasas, hurda sat fllar yönünde bekle bask s yaratm fl ve yafll filo oran n da %20-30 gibi önemli seviyelere kadar desteklemifl durumda. 25 yafl n üzerindeki filo oran tarihi kay tlarda %3-4 civar nda iken bugün %15 seviyelerine kadar tutundu. Keza tanker filosunda da bu oran %30 lar düzeyine yak n. Phase-out (hurdaya ay rma) ve yafll filo kriterlerinin etkisinde tanker filosunda da hurda sat fllar ve double-hull (çift cidar) dönüflümleri yak n dönemdeki s - cak geliflmeler olacak. Stratejistlerin en önemli destekçisi bu önemli oran olarak görülüyor. Navlun piyasas ile ilgili tahminlerde iyi seviyelerde seyretmesi beklenen, 2008 y l sonu itibariyle hurda sat fllar nda hareketlili in bafllamas öngörülüyor. Geçti imiz dört y ll k dönemde hurda sat fllar çok düflük hacimde devam etti ve hurda fiyatlar nda oldukça yüksek rakamlar kaydedildi. Bu noktada hurda prosesli çelik üretiminde taleplerin artmas, fiyatlamada sökümcüleri rahatlat yor. Bir di er önemli husus ise, küresel ekonominin tetikledi i endüstriyel ifl hacminin h zla artmas ve bafll ca endüstriyel ham maddeler kömür, demir cevheri gibi ithalat ürünlerinde filo beklentilerinin yükselmesi fleklinde ifade edilebilir. Avustralya ve Brezilya baflta olmak üzere liman, lojistik ve madencilik yat r mlar ile bu anlamda beklentileri destekliyor. Ayr ca Çin den sonra patlamaya haz r ikinci bomba olarak lanse edilen Hindistan, Çin dalgas n n ard ndan bir di er sürükleyici faktör aday olarak takip ediliyor. Muhakkak unutulmamas gereken önemli bir psikolojik faktör de var ki, o da Kümelenme fenomeni. Yerli armatörlerimiz geçti imiz 20 y ll k dönemde genelde bu ak m n taraftar ve oyuncusu oldular. Çevrenizde benzer tonajda yo unlaflan bir firma varsa siz de bu tonaja LPG 21 Existing statistics of bulk carrier fleet provide us with a very important data. Freight market, which was substantially profitable through the past four-year period, has created a delay effect on scrap sales and currently, the aged fleet ratio has been supported up to a significant ratio such as 20 to 30%. While the fleet ratio for over 25 years is around 3 to 4% historically, this ratio has climbed up to 15% currently. Likewise, this ratio is also close to 30% level in the tanker fleet. The scrap sales and double hull conversions under the phase-out and aged fleet criteria will become heated developments in the near-term. This important ratio seems to be the most important supporter of strategists. In the forecasts related to freight market, which is expected to continue at good levels, activity in scrap sales is forecasted to pick up as of the end of In the last four-year period, the scrap sales continued at a very low volume: extremely high values were registered in the scrap prices. At this point, the increase in demand in scrap processed steel production is helping those in the dismantling business from a pricing perspective. Another important point on the other hand may be expressed as the rapid increase in the business volume triggered by global economy and the increase in fleet expectations in import products of main industrial raw materials such as coal and iron ore. Australia and Brazil support expectations in this sense, with investments in primarily docks, logistic and mines. Furthermore, India, which is launched as the second bomb ready to explode following China, is being closely followed-up as another nominee growth factor. There exists an important psychological factor that absolutely should not be disregarded: the phenomenon of Clustering. Our domestic shipowners have been advocates and players of this trend. If there is a company in your environment, then you will also focus on such tonnage. This situation has completely lost its effect in our day with today s mentality and leaseholder approach. However, previously, a partial planning pressure was created and directed by the leaseholder clustered tonnage. The dual sided cause-effect relation was partially active. In our day Clustering still is in fashion for taking samples in the sense of K MYASAL TANKER S PAR filer 2007 CHEMICAL TANKER ORDERS k dwt+ 10 k dwt - 20 k dwt 5 k dwt - 10 k dwt 10 k dwt - 20 k dwt 20 k dwt+ 5 k dwt - 10 k dwt 070

5 do ru odaklan rs n z. Bu durum bugünkü anlay flla ve kirac odakl yaklafl mla etkisini tamamen keybetmifl durumdad r. Ancak daha öncesinde, kirac üzerinde kümelenen tonajda parsiyel planlamas bask s yarat yor ve yönlendiriyordu. Çift tarafl etki-tepki iliflkisi k smen aktifti. Günümüzde kümelenme, profesyonel flirketlerin hat ve yük stratejilerini örnek alma, benchmarking, stilinde tazeli ini koruyor. Bir profesyonel flirket belirli bir tonaja yo unlaflt nda, tabiri caizse bir bildi i vard r mekanizmas etkili olabiliyor. Ancak her durumda, reel yat r m planlamas arz-talep yönlerinde zincirin halkalar n n do ru analizinde yat yor. Bu bak mdan profesyonel flirket stratejileri talep edilen hat ve tonajlarda odaklan yor. Navlun piyasas ve ticaret hacmi öngörüleri çerçevesinde periyodunda beklentiler pozitif iflaretler tafl yor. Hurda sat fllar, artan tafl mac l k hacmi, yeni endüstriyel projeler bafll ca tetikleyici unsurlar. Bu bak fl aç s ile bu y l içerisinde yap lacak siparifllerin teslimat tarihleri oldukça mant kl görünüyor. Bir sonraki yukar yönlü dalgan n yükselen eteklerinde iflletmeye geçmeyi planlayan firmalar hesaplar n bu stratejiye dayand rm fl durumda. Gemi infla sektörü aç s ndan ise iki ucu keskin b çak denilebilecek bir süreç bafllad. Bu konuda Kore de yerleflik Ekonomik Araflt rmalar Enstitüsü nün ilginç bir raporu geçti imiz ay gündemdeydi. Raporun ana fikri: bugün artan talep karfl s nda h zla büyüyen gemi infla sanayisinin, 2011 y l nda yeterli filo kapasitesi sonras nda hayal k r kl yaflayabilece ini gösteriyor. Gemi infla sanayisinde bir kriz senaryosu olarak lanse edilen hesaplar, h zl bir düflüflle kapasite kullan m n n oldukça azalmas ve üretimin azalmas yönündeki de erlendirmeleri beraberinde getiriyor. Öyle görülüyor ki, önümüzdeki 2-3 y ll k dönemde iyimser beklentiler hakimken, sonras için temkinlilik yaklafl m söz konusu. Armatörler periyodundaki filo aç klar n kapmak için adeta birbirleriyle yar fl yorlar. Özellikle kuru yük filosu önemli bir dönüflüm ve gençleflme dönemine girecek. 2-3 y ll k periyotta, uzun zamand r bekleyen hurda sat fllar n n realize olmas yüksek ihtimal. Teslimat kapasitesindeki büyüklükler filo aç n tamamlar nitelikte. Peki ya sonras? 2005 A ustos unda kriz senaryolar yla dalgalanan navlun piyasas, büyüme rakamlar ndaki iyimser hava ile körükleniyor. Umar z armatör firmalar hesaplar n do ru yaparlar ve ani düflüfllerle çalkalanmaya bafllamay z. & benchmarking of line and freight strategies. When a professional company intensifies at a certain tonnage, the mechanism, which may be best expressed as, they must know something may become effective. However, real investment planning rests in the correct analysis of the links of the chain in the supply-demand direction. As such, professional company strategies focuses on the lines and tonnage that are in demand. The expectations carry positive signs within the freight market and commercial volumes framework for the period. The main triggering elements are scrap sales, increasing volume of transportation and new industrial projects. With this point of view in mind, the delivery dates of the orders placed this year look reasonable. The companies that plan to catch the next wave in the rising direction and operate within the environment of impulse it generates have based their strategies on these calculations. A phase, which may be termed as a double-edged sword, has started for the shipbuilding sector. An interesting report of Economic Research Institute based in Korea was at the top of last month s agenda with regards to this subject. The main idea of the report shows that: shipbuilding industry, which will rapidly grow due to the existing increase in demand, may be disappointed in the post-2011 sufficient fleet capacity era. The calculations, which are launched as a crisis scenario in the shipbuilding industry, brings with it the evaluations of very low capacity use and decrease in production caused by a rapid decrease. It seems as if, although the next two to three years are dominated by positive expectations, an approach of caution is felt for the following years. The shipowners seem to be in a race to cover their fleet deficits for the period. Especially the bulk carrier fleet will enter an important transformation and rejuvenation period. In the next 2-3 year period, realizing the long awaited scrap sales is a high probability. The delivery capacities have the qualities of completing the deficit in the fleet. Then what? The freight market that went through a shake up with the crisis scenarios of August 2005 is being incited with the positive factors in the growth figures. We hope the shipping companies get their calculations right and we are not faced and go through the turmoil of sudden drops. & stanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Araflt rma Görevlisi // Istanbul Technical University Maritime Faculty Research Assistant 072