WE ARE ON THE SAME STAGE WITH THE GREEKS!.. YUNANLILARLA SAHNE ALIYORUZ!.. Bu sayfalar m z n konu u Levent Karaçelik. Sektöre y llar n vermifl, yapt piyasa de erlendirmeleri ile dikkat çeken iddial bir isim... Ad mlar n sa lam atmaktan hofllanan ve her bir yaflanm fll ndan ders ç karan Karaçelik, Benim kufla m denizde çok büyük depremler, krizler yaflam fl bir kuflak. Bir zamanlar çok büyükken, flimdi ad bile kalmayan pek çok denizcilik flirketi gördü bizim kuflak. Onun için flirket olarak, yat r mlar m z denizcilik d fl nda baflka sektörlere de yay yor ve bunu bir nevi sigorta gibi de erlendiriyoruz. diyor. Levent Karacelik is our guest for these pages. An established figure, who has years of experience in the maritime industry and attracts attention with the market evaluations he performs Karacelik, who likes to play it safe and makes a point of learning from each and every experience, says, My generation has had many shattering experiences, crises at sea. Our generation has seen many shipping companies who were giants at the time, but now don t even have their names mentioned. That is why we diversify our investments to other industries, and consider this as a kind of insurance. W e first asked Levent Karacelik, Deputy Assembly Chairman of the Chamber of Shipping, about his comments on and developments in the freight markets. Read on to find out how he responded to this and the other questions we asked What can you tell us about the freight markets, developments in the vessel prices and expectations with regards to coming years? What could affect the increase in vessel prices and the supply/demand imbalance in the short term? Levent Karaçelik lk olarak navlun piyasalar ve geliflmelerle ilgili yorumunu sorduk Deniz Ticaret Odas Meclis Baflkan Vekili Levent Karaçelik e. Bak n hem bu sorumuzu, hem de di erlerini nas l yan tlad... I believe freight markets will continue like this at least until the end of 2011, and even by increasing more in certain periods and tonnages. The tonnage of the vessels under construction have not yet caught up with the additional capacity of goods to be transported and it does not look as if it will be possible for it to catch up. For the freight costs to start decreasing, maritime trade has to drop by at least 20% from its current level. However, when we take into consideration the fact that nearly all of the countries in the world have a minimum rate of development of 3% or more, it becomes evident that its occurrence does not have a high probability. The interesting thing is, virtually all countries have become both exporters and 026
Navlun piyasalar, gemi fiyatlar n n geliflimi ve gelecek y llara yönelik beklentiler hakk nda ne söyleyebilirsiniz? Sizce, yükselen gemi fiyatlar ile arz/talep dengesizli ini k sa sürede ne etkileyebilir? Navlun piyasas n n en az 2011 sonuna kadar bu flekilde, hatta baz dönemlerde ve tonajlarda biraz daha yükselerek devam edece ine inan yorum. Yeni infla edilmekte olan gemilerin tonaj, ticaret hacmindeki art fltan do an ilave tafl nacak mal kapasitesini yakalam fl de il ve yakalamas da mümkün gözükmüyor. Navlunlar n düflüfle geçmesi için, deniz yolu ile ticaretin flu andaki rakamdan en az % 20 civar nda azalmas laz m. Ancak dünyadaki hemen her ülkenin kalk nma h z n n minimum +%3 oldu unu dikkate al rsak, bunun pek kuvvetli bir olas l k olmad ortada. flin ilginç taraf, art k neredeyse bütün ülkelerin hem ithalatç, hem de ihracatç hale gelmifl olmas. Bu da gemilerin çok az balast ile hep çift ayakl yük tafl malar na imkan tan yor. Dolay s yla, hem ton/mil hesab ile armatörlerin karl l k oranlar ciddi boyutlarda art yor, hem de yük hacminde bir art fl söz konusu oluyor. Gemi fiyatlar na gelince; 2011 y l ndan itibaren biraz daha makul seviyelere düflece ine inan yorum. Tahminime göre, piyasadaki belli orana varacak tonaj doyumu, yeni aç lacak tersaneler ve mevcutlardaki kapasite artt r m ile oluflacak ilaveler, 2012 den sonra yeni infla gemi fiyatlar nda ciddi bir düflüfl yaratacak. Ancak bugünkü rakamlara göre oldukça ciddi boyutlarda yaflanacak olan bu düflüflün yine de tersaneler için makul karfl lanabilir olaca n düflünüyorum. Ayr ca ikinci el gemi piyasas nda ise büyük bir düflüfl beklemiyorum. Türk denizcili inin geliflimi ve son zamanlarda yaflanan de iflim hakk nda neler söyleyebilirsiniz? Türk deniz ticaret filosunun gelece ini nas l de erlendiriyorsunuz? Türk yat r mc lara ait gemilerden oluflan filo - dikkat edin Türk deniz ticaret filosu demiyorum - bence en geç 2009 veya 2010 y - l nda 20 milyon dwt yi geçecektir. 2012 / 2013 y llar nda ise 25 milyon dwt yi aflaca n tahmin ediyorum. fiayet Türk tersaneleri büyük dökme yük gemilerini yak n fiyatlarda yapma imkan bulabilirlerse, filomuz bu rakamlara ilave, 5 senede en az 5 milyon dwt daha artar. Ancak bu herhangi bir flekilde hükümetlerin denizcilik politikalar n n neticesinde falan olmufl bir durum de ildir. Bu tamamen dünya denizcili indeki geliflme ve zenginleflmenin neticesidir. Türk armatörü art k uluslararas alanda Yunanl larla beraber sahne alan bir oyuncu olmufltur. Yeni gemi infla siparifllerini, mevcut filolara oranlad n zda flu anda Türk flipariflleri Yunan siparifllerinden fazlad r. Orta ve yönetim kurulu üyesi oldu unuz Ere li Denizcilik A.fi. nin kuruluflu, geliflimi, faaliyetleri ve yat r mlar ile ilgili ne düflünüyorsunuz? Yeni gemi infla siparifllerini, mevcut filolara oranlad n zda flu anda Türk flipariflleri Yunan siparifllerinden daha fazla. When you look at the proportions of new vessel orders to existing fleets, the current Turkish orders are more than Greek orders. importers. This allows the vessels to carry cargo with very little ballast and always in both directions. Consequently, shipowners profitability increases substantially on ton/mile basis, and there is an increase in the cargo volumes as well. As for the vessel prices; I believe they will decrease down to more reasonable levels as from 2011, I estimate that with the tonnage saturation that will reach a certain proportion in the market, shipyards that will newly be commissioned and capacity expansions in the already operational shipyards may create a serious drop in the new building prices. However, I think this drop that may be rather substantial when compared to the current figures, may still be reasonably absorbed by shipyards. Furthermore, I do not expect a great drop in the second hand vessel market. What could you say about the developments in the Turkish maritime industry and the change that has been experienced recently? How do you evaluate the future of the Turkish merchant fleet? The fleet that consists of vessels owned by Turkish investors - note that I am not saying Turkish merchant fleet - will surpass the 20 million dwt by 2009 or 2010 at the latest. In case the Turkish shipyards are able to make the bulk carriers at close prices, our fleet will increase to a minimum of 5 million dwt in addition to the above figures within the next 5 years. However, this is not a situation that is the result of any government policies of any sorts. This is completely a result of the development and accumulated wealth in the world maritime business. Turkish shipowners have become players that now mutually take part in the international arena with the Greek. When you look at the proportions of new vessel orders to existing fleets, the current Turkish orders are more than Greek orders. What do you think of the establishment, development, activities and investments of Eregli Denizcilik A.S., in which you are a partner and a member of the Board of Directors? Eregli Shipping is an extremely important partnership that targets to own a minimum of 5 vessels with 176-180,000 dwt capesizes by 2012, and wishes to achieve an important position among capesize operators in the world by the year 2015. I believe that every player in the Turkish maritime industry will be proud of this company. MARINE & COMMERCE SEPTEMBER 2007 027
What do you think about flotation of the Turkish maritime companies in the stock market? Are they ready? If public offerings rather than multi-partner companies can be realized, I think that the Turkish companies may even grow more. The shares of maritime companies world-wide receive huge demand and provide gains in value. Greek companies collected nearly 2 billion dollars of resources from the New York Stock Exchange. We have companies that have major profitability, which can make public offerings of their shares in very large quantities, and would certainly receive attention. Ere li Denizcilik; 2012 ye kadar en az 5 adet 176-180,000 dwt - lik Capesize gemiye sahip olmay ve 2015 y l na kadar da dünya Capesize operatörleri aras nda önemli bir yere ulaflmay hedefleyen, son derece önemli bir ortakl k. Bu firma ile her Türk denizcisinin gurur duyaca na inan yorum. Türk denizcilik flirketlerinin borsaya aç lmalar konusunda ne düflünüyorsunuz? Haz rlar m? Çok ortakl flirketlerden ziyade halka aç lma gerçeklefltirilebilirse, Türk flirketlerinin çok daha büyüyebileceklerini düflünüyorum. Tüm dünya borsalar nda denizcilik flirketlerinin hisseleri çok ra bet görüyor ve de er kazand r yor. Yunanl firmalar New York borsas nda 2 milyar dolara yak n kaynak toplad lar. Bizim de çok ciddi karl ve çok büyük rakamlarda hisselerini halka arz edebilecek ve ilgi görecek flirketlerimiz var. Türkiye ve dünyada gemi infla sanayisinin geliflimini ve Türkiye nin yerini de erlendirir misiniz? Yerel ve küresel anlamda h zla artan tersane yat r mlar, gerek Türkiye ve gerekse dünya gemi infla sanayisi ile mevcut ve kurulmakta olan tersaneleri nas l etkileyecek? Ben üretime tapan, üretene çok sayg duyan bir insan oldu um için tersanecili e hep yak n olmuflumdur. Deniz Ticaret Odas Yönetim Kurulu Baflkan Vekilli i görevimde de tersanelerin desteklenmesi konusunda çok çal flmalar yapt m. Bu nedenle yeni tersanelerin aç lmas n hep teflvik etmiflimdir. Tersane ayr ca en az 20 yan sektöre de ifl yaratan bir yat r m. Üstelik Türkiye tersanecilikte Avrupa n n ve Atlantik in en büyü ü, daha da büyüyecek. Tek sorun fi- Could you evaluate the development of the shipbuilding industry in Turkey and in the world? What is the position of Turkey within this context? How will the shipyard investments, which are rapidly increasing in domestic and global terms, effect the shipbuilding industry worldwide and in Turkey? How will they effect the existing shipyards and shipyards under construction? As I am a person who worships production and has extreme respect for producers, I have always been close to shipbuilding. In my post as the Deputy Assembly Chairman of the Chamber of Shipping, I also took many initiatives for the support of shipyards. So, I have always encouraged opening of new shipyards. Shipyard is an investment that also creates employment opportunities in at least 20 related sectors. In addition, Turkey is the largest in Europe and the Atlantic in shipbuilding, and it will even grow further. Prices being high when compared to Far East are the only issue. But I believe Turkish shipyards will be awarded big orders in especially handy/handymax bulk carrier categories. However, we absolutely need to have our shipyards put under special statuses upon our entry into the EU. We should not let EU supervise our shipyards from a production and price perspective for at least some period time, because shipyards are going to be faced with serious competition. I believe the only superiority we have compared to Far East, in other words the quality, will stop being an advantage in a couple of years time at most. China, Vietnam, India and the Philippines will have surpassed the quality issue in a short while. Imagine the first cars the Japanese made when they first started manufacturing cars, and look at the Japanese cars now. When this quality advantage disappears, the shipyards must absolutely drop their prices. And in such a situation, the small shipyards would either have to become bigger or will have to merge with bigger ones. 028
yatlar n Uzak Do u ya nazaran yüksek oluflu. Ama bence özellikle handy/handymax bulk carrier (15,000-55,000 dwt aras dökme yük gemileri) konusunda Türk tersaneleri büyük siparifller alacaklar. Ancak tersanelerimizi AB ye girdi imizde mutlaka özel statülere sokturmam z gerekiyor. Hiç olmazsa bir süre, AB nin tersanelerimizi üretim ve fiyatlar aç s ndan denetlemesine kesinlikle izin vermemeliyiz, çünkü tersaneleri ciddi bir rekabet bekliyor. Bugün Uzak Do u ya nazaran tek üstünlü ümüz olan kalite nin, en fazla iki sene sonra bir avantaj olmaktan ç kaca n tahmin ediyorum. Çin, Vietnam, Hindistan ve Filipin k sa zamanda kalite meselesini aflm fl olacaklar. Japonlar n ilk araba yapmaya bafllad klar dönemdeki Japon arabalar n gözünüzün önüne getirin, bir de flimdiki Japon arabalar na bak n. Bu kalite avantaj egale oldu- unda, tersanelerin mutlaka maliyetlerini düflürmeleri gerekecek. Bu durumda da küçük kapasiteli tersaneler ya büyümek, ya da büyüklere kat lmak durumunda kalacaklar. Denizcilikte son y llarda görülen yükselen e ilim, kamuoyu ve sektör d fl yat r mc lar nezdinde sektöre bak fl nas l etkiledi? Denizcilikle hiç ilgisi olmayan gruplar n sektörde büyük yat - r mlara girmesi hakk nda ne söyleyebilirsiniz? Keflke Koç, Sabanc, Vestel gibi devler denizcili e girse. O zaman herhalde 2 senede 25 milyon dwt u aflar z. fiahsen benim çok hofluma gider. Gönüllü olarak ücretsiz dan flmanl k bile yapar m. Yeni ifl hayat na at lacak gençlere denizcilik mesle i ve sektörle ilgili ne söylemek istersiniz? Denizcilik hem gemide, hem de karada çal flanlar için meflakkatli ifltir. Her olay yeni bir olayd r, her gün yeni bir gündür. Denizcilik, insan n olaylar en az tahmin edebildi i ifllerden biridir. 1 saat sonra geminizin bafl na ne gelebilece ini tahmin etme ihtimaliniz s f rd r. Ama baflka hiç bir meslekte de bu kadar çok insan tan mak, dünya ekonomisinin tam göbe inde yer almak imkan mevcut de ildir. Denizcilik her an, her fleyin yaflanabilece i bir ifl olmas nedeni ile, hareket sevenler için çok tatmin edici; ama statükocu ve sakin ortam sevenler için de çok stresli bir ifltir. Gençlere tavsiyem mutlaka bu konuda temel bir e itim almalar d r. Ama Herkesin cebinin para dolu oldu u ve kredi borçlar n rahatl kla ödedi i bir ortamda, e er yük hacminde de bir azalma yoksa, gemi fiyatlar n n düflmesini beklemek safl k olur. In an environment where everyone is cash rich and able to comfortably pay back the borrowings, and if there is no decrease in the cargo volumes, than it would be naive to expect the vessel prices to drop. How did the rising trend in the maritime industry in the last few years affect the view of the sector by the public and investors from outside the sector? What would you say about entry of groups that have no connection with maritime industry through major investments? I wish giants such as Koc, Sabanci, Vestel would enter the maritime industry. Then we would be able to surpass 25 million dwt in a couple of years. Personally, I would like that. I would even provide consultancy on a free of charge basis. What would you like to say about the maritime business and the sector to the new generation that will be entering the business world? Maritime business is hard work for both those at sea and those working on land. Each situation turns out to be unique, and each day is a new day. Maritime business is one of the businesses in which a person can least forecast things to come. Your ability to know what may happen to your ship even in an hour s time is zero. But the chance of meeting so many people and to be at the very center of world economy is not possible in another profession. As maritime business is something where anything may be experienced at any time, it is extremely satisfying for fast movers; stressful job for people who enjoy a calm environment and love status quo. My advice to the young people would be to get a basic education on this subject. But more importantly, they should work at good companies who dwell in different topics and learn the business. Maritime business is one of the rare sectors in which practice is more important than education. The basic management, finance and economy education in those who enter this occupation will help them to grasp matters faster. What are the things that you may define as turning points in your life or were unforgettable in your business life? The turning point in my life was my selecting Maritime Law instead of Criminal Law for my Ph.D. following my graduation from the School of Law. Selecting Maritime Law all of a sudden while filling in the application forms, although I was the best nominee assistant to Ordinary Professor Sulhi Donmezer, at the Chair in Criminal Law, although I had not taken any courses in maritime law was an event that changed my life. The decision to actually work in a company (Zihni Shipping) as an agency clerk during the 2-year Ph.D. period was the second right step for me. When it comes to unforgettable memories, I have got so many But I suppose the most striking one would be the 2,000 dwt vessel I sent to Galatz Port for loading and her coming back to Buyukdere empty in 1977 and the captain s comment saying, I searched and searched, but couldn t find the entrance for Sulina Canal. The owner of that ship is one the biggest shipowners today. MARINE & COMMERCE SEPTEMBER 2007 029
daha da önemlisi, iyi ve mümkün oldu unca de iflik konularla u raflan flirketlerde çal flarak, ifli ö renmeleridir. Tatbikat n e itimden daha önemli oldu u ender sektörlerden biridir denizcilik. Bügün bu mesle e gireceklerde temel iflletme, finans ve ekonomi e itiminin olmas, onlar n meseleyi çok daha çabuk kapmalar na yard mc olacakt r. Yaflant n zda sizin için dönüm noktas dedi iniz veya ifl hayat n zda unutamayaca n z olaylar neler? Yaflant m n dönüm noktas, hukuk fakültesini bitirdi imde doktora yapmak için Ceza Hukuku yerine Deniz Ticaret Hukukunu seçmem olmufltur. Ceza Hukuku Kürsüsünde Ord. Profesör Sulhi Dönmezer in en büyük asistan aday iken ve tam doktora için müracaat ka tlar n doldururken, birdenbire hem de fakültede hiç dersine dahi girmedi im halde, Deniz Ticaret Hukukunu fleçmem, hayat - m n ak fl n de ifltiren bir olay oldu. 2 senelik doktoram s ras nda bir yandan da fiilen bir flirkette (Zihni Denizcilik) acental k memuru olarak çal flma karar n almamsa, ikinci do ru ad m md. Hiç unutamad m an lar ma gelince o kadar çok ki... Ama san - r m en çarp c s ; 1977 de Galatz Liman na yükleme için gönderdi im 2,000 dwt lik gemimin, 4 gün sonra bofl olarak Büyükdere ye dönmesi ve kaptan n bana Arad m arad m, Sülina Kanal n n giriflini bulamad m demesidir. O geminin sahibi bugün en büyük armatörlerden biri. Son olarak biraz da flirketinizi baflar ya götürdü üne inand - n z temel ilkeler ve stratejilerden bahsedelim... Türkiye de baflka hiç bir firman n yapmad bir alanda hizmet veriyoruz. Bizim yapt m z n tam ad operatörlük oluyor. Bu konuda sadece Türkiye de tek olmakla kalmad k, ayn zamanda Avrupa daki yaklafl k 20 operatör aras nda ortalarda yer alan ve dünyada da ilk 50 aras na giren bir operatörlük flirketi oluflturduk. Tabii bu noktaya gelmek, bu piyasada her armatörün korkmadan gemisini uzun sureli kiraya verece i bir firma olmak bizim tam 9 senemizi ald. Bu süreç içinde de tek bir armatör veya tafl tan ile mahkemelik olmadan, arbitrasyona gitmeden çok temiz bir record oluflturduk. Bunu yaparken hedefimiz hep bu operatörlük piyasas nda, dünyada ilk 20 aras na girecek flirketi yaratmakt ve ilkemiz hiç yanl fl yapmamak, girdi imiz taahhütlere sad k kalmak idi. Bugün geldi imiz noktada toplam 23 gemi ile 750,000 dwt luk filoya sahip bir flirketiz. Filomuz 20,000 ile 48,000 dwt aras vinçli dökme yük gemilerinden olufluyor. fiirket olarak bir yandan operatör olma yolunda çal flmalar yaparken, di er yandan da özellikle çimento ve klinker tafl ma piyasas nda, dünyadaki en önemli 10 tafl ma flirketinden biri olmay hedeflemifltik ve ne mutlu ki bunu da baflard k. 2000/2007 y llar aras nda 53 milyon ton civar nda çimento ve klinker tafl mas n yapt k. leride enerji dal nda da faaliyet göstermeyi hedefliyoruz ama ana faaliyetimiz hep denizcilik olarak kalacak. & filet LEN GEM F LOSU OPERATED VESSELS Name built dwt hatches cargo capacity cranes M/V MAHA DEEPA 85 45,270 6ho/6ha gr 1,895,405 4x25+4x8 m 3 grbs M/V SILVER STAR 84 42,832 5ho/5ha gr 1,910,257 4x25+4x9 m 3 grbs M/V ALFIE 86 40,864 5ho/5ha gr 50,524 cbm 4x25+4x8 m 3 grbs M/V ANTARES G 84 38,885 5ho/5ha gr 46,112 cbm 4x25+4x8 m 3 grbs M/V COSTANTINOS G 83 38,002 5ho/5ha gr 1,739,428 4x25+2x10 m 3 +2x6,5 m 3 M/V JIN PRINCE 86 37,895 5ho/5ha gr 1,676,536 4x25 mt M/V YARE 85 37,568 5ho/5ha gr 1,685,000 4x25 mt M/V HAL S K 84 37,096 5ho/5ha gr/bl 1,678,072 / 1,627,743 4x25 mt M/V SIAM RUBY 84 35,501 5ho/5ha gr/bl 42,085 / 40,425 cbm 4x25 mt M/V GO PRIDE 82 35,500 5ho/5ha gr/bl 1,490,000 / 1,430,000 4x25mt M/V SWIFTSURE 80 32,770 5ho/5ha gr/bl 41,173 / 38,614 cbm 4x25mt M/V MIRA 80 32,500 5ho/5ha gr/bl 1,460,000 / 1,388,200 grls M/V MILIN KAMAK 79 25,900 7ho/7ha gr 1,100,000 grls M/V TURHAN BEY 78 25,700 5ho/5ha gr/bl 1,208,971 / 1,161,044 4x15 mt M/V BALKAN 75 25,744 7ho/7ha gr/bl 1,037,943 / 1,004,078 grlss M/V SHIPKA 79 25,744 7ho/7ha gr/bl 1,037,943 / 1,004,078 grlss M/V GEORGIEV 80 25,600 5ho/5ha gr/bl 1,037,000 / 1,004,000 grlss M/V KALIAKRA 84 24,105 7ho/7ha gr 29,191 cbm - grlss M/V PLANA 91 21,000 5ho/5ha gr/bl 911,708 / 890,000 grlss M/V L PAR T 76 19,190 4ho/4ha gr/bl 934,338 / 958,471 4x20mt Finally, please tell us about the basic principles and strategies that you believe has brought your company the success... We provide services in an area where no other company is active. What we do is operating. We were not only the first and only one in Turkey, but were also able to establish a company that is placed at the mid sections of nearly 20 operators in Europe and are amongst the first 50 in the world. Of course, to get to this point, to have shipowners charter their vessels to us on a longterm basis without any concern on their part, took us 9 years. We established an impeccable record by not having any lawsuits, or having any applications for arbitration with any shipowners or shippers throughout this process. As we were doing this, our aim was to create a company that would enter the top 20 list in the operators market and our principle was not to make any mistakes and to honor our commitments. At this point in time, we are a company with a fleet totaling 23 vessels and 750,000 dwt. Our fleet consists of bulk carrier vessels with cranes ranging between 20,000 and 48,000 dwt. While we were undertaking work to become an operator, we had also targeted to become one of the most important top 10 freight companies especially in cement and clinker transportation in the world, and I am happy to say that we have achieved this. We have undertaken the shipment of around 53 million tons of cement and clinker in the years 2000-2007. We are also planning to become an active player in the energy field, but our core activity will always remain as maritime business. & 030