YILDIZ TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ İNŞAAT MÜHENDİSLİĞİ M İĞİ BÖLÜMÜ GENERAL RAILWAY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN BOTH TURKEY AND GLOBAL SCALE Prof. Dr. Müh. M Yapı Merkezi AR&GE Bölümü B 2013 1
INFORMATION RELATED TO RAILWAIL EXPERIENCES of SOME SELECTED COUNTRIES Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Country Germany Austria Czech Rep. France G. Britain Spain Sweden Italy Turkey Country Code D A CZ F GB E S I TR Area (thousand-km²) 357,0-83,9-78,9-643,4-243,6-505,4-450,3-301,3-783,6- Population (million) 82,3-8,3-10,2-64,0-61,0-40,0-9,3-58,1-72,0- National Income (Billion $) 2913,4-333,7-264,2-2124,8-2226,5-1388,0-353,9-1818,5-612,0- National Income per capita (thousand-$) 35,4-40,2-25,9-33,2-36,5-34,7-38,1-31,3-8,5- Single line Length (thousand-km) 36-6- 10-30- 17-15- 10-17- 9- Number of Personnel (thousand) 249-46- 78-175- --- 35-13- 104-35- Passenger transport (million passengers/year) 1682-192- 172-879- 1000-594- 61 548-77- Passenger transport (billion passengers/year) 75-8- 6-72- 45-21- 7-47- 6- Passenger, transport average distance (Km) 45-42- 35-82- 45-35- 114-86- 78- Load transport (million tons / year) 268-87- 92-121 89-34- 43-82- 16- Load transport (billion tons km / year) 80-18- 17-46- 21-14- 13-22- 10- Load transport average distance (Km) 299-207- 185-381- 236-417- 304-267- 625- The countries are selected among European countries taking into consideration that they have various national incomes. The harmony of correlation calculated on the information of these countries are checked and is determined that they will yield healthy and realistic results when used for Turkey. The values in the list belong to years 2008 and 2009. 2
NATIONAL INCOME / SINGLE LINE LENGTH RELATION 3
SINGLE LINE LENGTH / CARRIAGE CAPACITY RELATION 4
NATIONAL INCOME / CARRIAGE CAPACITY RELATION 5
TCDD LINE CHARACTERISTICS 2008 2023 Main Lines (Single line-thousand kms) 9 20~25 High-speed train lines (%) 4 50~60 Signalized lines (%) 28 90~95 Electrified lines (%) 21 90~95 Art structures (%) 3 6~8 S49 or smaller rail profile (%) 98 4~5 UIC60 E1 Rail (%) 2 95~96 Concrete traverse (%) 70 92~98 Curved line (%) 36 20~25 Ballastless line (%) 0 5~10 Personnel number (thousand) 34 100~140 Passenger transport (billion-passenger km) 6 40~60 Passenger per year (million) 77 300~330 Average passenger transport distance (Km) 78 120~150 Load transport (billion) 10 Yearly load transport (million-ton) 16 60~75 Average load transport distance (Km) 625 400~600 Total number of vehicles (thousand) 18 ~30(?) Pulling vehicles (%) 3 3~4 High speed train sets 12 220~300 Required funding (billion $) 70~100 6
DEMİRYOLU PROJELERİNDE TÜNEL UZUNLUĞUNUN KESTİRİMİ 2023 yılı projeksiyonuna göre olması gereken demiryolu uzunluğu yaklaşık olarak 20-25 x 10 3 km dir. Birim km demiryolu hattı için tünel uzunluğu birçok parametreye (genel jeoloji, litolojik/tektonik kesit faktörleri, morfolojik yapı, demiryolu proje verileri, vs.) bağlı olarak 5 - %5 aralığında değişir. Geometrik ortalama değer olarak 0.0158 km/km alındığında 2023 yılında olası tünel uzunluğu: 0.0158 x (22.5-9.0) x 10 3 = 213 km çıkmaktadır. (Not: 9 x 10 3 mevcut uzunluktur.) Önümüzdeki dönemde karayolu / metro / su tünellerindeki gelişimlerde dikkate alındığında, tünel sektörünün çok canlı olacağı rahatlıkla söylenebilir. 7
REGIONAL ANALYSIS BASED on RAILWAY PARAMETERS REGION COUNTRIES II : DZ, EG, LY, MA, SD, TN III : BH,IR,IQ,JO,KW,LB,OM,PS,QA,SA,SY,YE IV : AZ, KZ, KG, PK, TJ, TM, UZ Area (10 6 Km 2 ) 2009 Population (10 6 Person) Average Growth Rate % 2025 x = Gross National Product "GNP" (10 9 $) 2009 Average Growth Rate % 2025 y1 = Single Track Meter 10 3 Km Railway Transportation y2 = Passenger Billion-Prs. Km y3 = Freight Billion-Ton Km 2009 2025 2009 2025 2009 2025 a b c a c a c I Turkey 0,787 74 1,2 90 870 5,4 2.018 9 11 24 6 53 9 36 II North Africa Total 8,360 208 1,6 277 1.120 5,2 2.590 20 21 26 46 72 14 83 III Greater Middle East Total 5,609 208 2,0 279 2.320 5,7 4.816 15 26 49 13 107 25 155 IV Greater Central Asia Total 4,886 254 1,1 315 838 6,1 1.900 34 34 44 39 59 65 107 V International Coorperation Platform Total 19,642 744 1,5 962 5.147 5,6 11.325 78 91 143 104 291 113 382 World Total 150,000 6.800 1,2 8.230 70.000 3,0 112.329 1.140 648 1.123 2.138 3.618 8.738 11.000 Countries Invited to ICP a: Existed, b: Estimated as needed, c: Estimated y 1 = 0,008x + 10,1 y 2 = 0,021x + 6,4 y 3 = 0,031x - 0,4 R² = 0,65 R² = 0,69 R² = 0,65 Source: Dr. Ersin ARIOĞLU (2010), Fast Track: Strengthenning the Links via Railways. 8
PROPOSED RAIL NETWORK LONDON AMSTERDAM Kazakstan Vostochny ANKARA Baku Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan BEIJING Vladivostok ALGİERS TUNİS RABAT Morocco Tunisia TRİPOLİ BENGAZİ MARRAKECH BECHAR Algeria Libya Syria Iraq Damascus SALLUM Alguriyyat Kuwait Jubail Eqypt Madinah RIYADH Iran Afganistan Pakistan CHINA SHANGAI Wadi Halfa Sudan Haradh UAE Saudi Arabia Makkah Muscat Dakar Khartoum Yemen Djibouti Wau Juba East West Corridor (Existing) East West Corridor (Planned) North Africa (Existing) North Africa (Planned) Gulf Cooperation Council (Existing) Gulf Cooperation Council (Planned) 12,000 km 400 km 6,700km 10,100 km 1,000 km 5.500 km ICP Countries Existing Lines Ferry Planned Lines Source: Dr. Ersin ARIOĞLU (2010), Fast Track: Strengthenning the Links via Railways. 9