Production 100 Demand

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Duygu Kerimoğlu
10 yıl önce
İzleme sayısı:

1 Enerji Koridoru Türkiye Doç. Dr. Yurdakul Yiğitgüden ODTÜ Mezunları Derneği , Ankara

2 Eneri Koridoru Türkiye Türkiye nin birincil enerji dengesi Hazar Bölgesi ve Türkiye BTC VE SCP Türkiye nin Boru hatları Avrupa nın doğalgaz talebi Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa ya gaz taşınması Güney Avrupa Gaz Ringi Nabucco ve Avrupa nın gaz tedarikçileri

Avrupa nın doğalgaz talebi Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa ya gaz

3 250 Yerli enerji üretimi ve Birincil Enerji Tüketimi Kaynak: ETKB, 2007 (27.5 /107.6 Mtoe) Production Demand

4 Kaynaklara göre Birincil Enerji Talebi (2007, Mtoe) Kaynak: ETKB % Coal Oil 32% 8% 0% Nat. Gas 29% 31% Hydro+Solar+Geot hermal+wind+oth ers

5 THE CASPIAN REGION AND EAST WEST ENERGY CORRIDOR Strenghten the independence and prosperity of the new Caspian States Encourage market economy and democratic developments Stabilise the region by building the economic linkages between the countries Help to diversify and secure the energy supply of Turkey and her partners Increase the business opportunities for Turkish Companies

region by building the economic linkages between the countries Help to diversify and secure

6 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline Project DELTA HESS KHAZAR LIMITED INPEX

7 South Caucasus Pipeline Source: EBRD

8 Pipelines of Turkey (Source: Botaş)

9 European Energy Demand(EU-25) mtoe European Energy and Transport Trends to 2930 update 2005, EU Commission Solid fuels Oil N.Gas Nuclear Renewables

2005, EU Commission 700 600 500 400 300 200

10 Indigenous Natural Gas Production and Imports(EU-25) mtoe European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 update 2005, EU Commission Production Imports

Trends to 2030 update 2005, EU Commission 450 400

11 GAS TO EUROPE

12 SOUTH EUROPEAN GAS RING 7 July March 2002 Concluding Statement signed between European Commission, Turkey and Greece MOU between BOTAS and DEPA 23 Feb 2003 IGA between Turkey and Greece 3 July Nov 2007 Contruction start of the TGI Official inauguration of the TGI 4 Nov June 2008 IGA between Greece and Italy Formation of the IGI Poseidon SA

Turkey and Greece 3 July 2005 18 Nov 2007 Contruction start of the TGI Official

13 Turkey-Greece Natural Gas Interconnector Project İstanbul (Gümülcine) Kipi / İpsala Tekirdağ Ambarlı Pendik (Dedeağaç) Marmara Sea Muallim Kızılcaterzi Değirmencik Hersek Bursa Çanakkale Karacabey Turkey-Greece Natural Gas Pipeline Turkish Section: 210 km(17 km under the sea), Greek Section: 86 km Diameter: 36 inch, Capacity: 7 bcm (expansion to 11bcm) Source: BOTAŞ

Bursa Çanakkale Karacabey Turkey-Greece Natural Gas Pipeline Turkish Section: 210 km(17 km

14 Nabucco Gas Pipeline Project Source:OMV

15 A brief history of Nabucco pipeline project 15 Jul 1998: MoU, 2. Turkish-Austrian Joint Energy Commission in Ankara, 20 Nov 2001: MoU, 3. Turkish-Austrian Joint Energy Commission, Vienna, meeting with Federal Minister Dr. Bartenstein, Feb 2002: Meetings between Botas and OMV Erdgas, leading to the Nabucco project, has been initiated. 22 May 2002: Cooperation Protocoll between Botaş and OMV. 11 Oct 2002: Cooperation agreement, Bulgargaz, Transgaz, MOL join the project : 2004: Market Study and Technical Feasibility Study 24 Jun 2004: Nabucco Co. Founded, 28 Jun 2005: J.-V. Agreement signed by the five Nabucco partners, 26 Dec 2007: RWE became the sixth shareholder of the consortium, 8 Feb 2008: Nabucco appoints Penspen for detailed technical planning 29 May 2008: CAPEX increase from 5 to 7.9 bill Jan 2009: Budapest Summit

22 May 2002: Cooperation Protocoll between Botaş and OMV. 11 Oct 2002: Cooperation agreement, Bulgargaz, Transgaz, MOL join the project.

16 Nabucco gas supply sources Source: OMV

17 Nabucco için doğalgaz nereden gelir? Şahdeniz Faz II, 5-10 milyar metreküp Mısır (Suriye üzerinden), 3-5milyar metreküp, Irak, İran, Türkmenistan Katar Mısır (off-shore).

18 Nabucco da (mutlu?) sona doğru Türkiye nin bir stratejisi var mı? Transit Rejimi Üretici ülkelerle ilgili sorunlar Nabucco şirket yapısı ve siyasi destek Talepte beklenen azalma Alternatif projeler ve LNG

19 Asgari alım taahütleri (AAT) bazında doğalgaz arz-talep dengesi (milyon standart metreküp) Kaynak: Botas, 2005; Yiğitgüden:2006 YILLAR AAT ne göre Arz Toplam Talep Arz-Talep Farkı

813-2.957 2011 41.282 47.200-5.918 Arz-Talep Farkı 2012 37.350 48.323-10.973 2013 37.350 50.950-13.601 2014 36.131 51.464-15.333 2015 33.

20 Present Natural Gas Exporters and their Supply Potential to Europe-34 (bcm) Source:EU ENCOURAGED Project 2006, OME, CEDİGAZ) Country Russia Norway Algeria Nigeria Qatar Egypt Libya Oman Trinidad&T Total

Russia 139 166 196 Norway 81 94 95 Algeria 57 81 110 Nigeria 11 21 36 Qatar

21 Future Natural Gas Exporters and their Supply Potential to Europe-34 (bcm) Source:EU ENCOURAGED Project 2006, OME, CEDİGAZ) Country Iran Azerbaijan 0 0 (?) 13 Yemen Irak Angola Kazakhstan (?) Turkmenistan (?) Uzbekistan Total

22 Major Pipeline Projects to Europe (Source:EU ENCOURAGED Project 2006, OME) Project Nord Stream From Russia To Capacity (bcm) Investment (bill. ) Start-up Germany 27.5 (+27.5) ~ Langeled Norway UK ~ Medgas Algeria Spain 8-10 ~ GALSI Algeria Italy 8-10 ~ IGI Greece Italy 8-10 ~ Nabucco Turkey Austria ~ (?) Total ~19.8

23 Nabucco nasıl gerçekleşir? Türkiye ye düşen görevler Anlaşılabilir ve uygulanabilir bir strateji, ETKB bünyesinde bir çalışma grubu, Kurumlar arası koordinasyon, Doğalgaz piyasasının işler hale getirilmesi, Transit rejimine işlerlik kazandırılması, AB ve ABD yetkilileri ile üretici ülkelerle periyodik temaslar, Boru hattı için gerekli anlaşmaların imzalanması.

24 Teşekkürler

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