A s a result of all these developments, the global economic

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1 Geçen say m zda 2000 lerin bafl ndan itibaren esmeye bafllayan ve etkisini günümüze kadar sürdüren global canlanma rüzgar n de erlendirmifltik. Bu yaz m zda ise söz konusu rüzgar n yavafllama ihtimalini ve küresel ekonomide ortaya ç kabilecek olas de iflimleri ele alaca z. In our last issue, we discussed the global wind of economic upturn that started blowing by the beginning of 2000s and has continued up to the date. However in this issue, we will deal with the likelihood of a slowdown and the probable changes that may occur in the global economy. DOES THE WIND SHIFT BACK? RÜZGAR TERSE M DÖNÜYOR? Dr. SARUHAN ÖZEL B ütün bu geliflmelerin sonunda 2001 y l nda yüzde 1 lere gerileyen global ekonomik büyüme yeniden yüzde 5 lere yükseldi. Asya - ABD aras ndaki etkileflim sayesinde global ticaret hacmi patlad sonunda ticaret hacmi yüzde 15 gibi yüksek bir oranda artarak 7.5 trilyon dolara ç kt. Baflta deniz ticareti olmak üzere ulaflt rma sektörü de bundan ciddi yararlar gördü. Balt k Kuru Yük Endeksi 2001 sonuna göre dört kat art nca, armatörler geçmifl y llarda görmedikleri navlun ücretleri sayesinde ciddi getiriler elde ettiler. Bunun bir sonucu olarak gemi sipariflleri patlad ; Panama Kanal ndan Los Angeles, Southampton, Singapur, Malezya, Tianjin (Çin) gibi dünyan n en büyük limanlar art arda kapasite art r m projelerine girifltiler. Yarat lan bu ucuz maliyetli yüksek miktardaki likidite, sadece do rudan global üretime ve ticarete de il, finansal piyasalara da ciddi bir hareketlilik getirdi. Geliflmifl ülkelerde sadece 2003 y l nda dolar baz nda yüzde 28 prim yapan riskli flirket bonolar yla (junk bonds), getirileri ülke riskleri aç s ndan yüksek olan geliflmekte olan ülke enstrümanlar, Eurobond lar, türev enstrümanlar, A s a result of all these developments, the global economic growth that declined down to 1 percent in 2001 has now risen to the level of 5 percent again. Through the interaction between Asia and the US, the global trade volume exploded. At the end of 2003, the trade volume increased by 15 percent and reached $7.5 trillion. Firstly the shipping sector and also the transport sector greatly benefited from this. As the Baltic Dry Cargo Index increased by a factor of four in comparison to the end of 2001, and through freighting prices that had not seen previously, ship owners made significant gains. As a result of this the orders placed for ship building boomed and the world s major ports such as the Panama Canal, Los Angeles, Southampton, Singapore, Malaysia and Tianjin (in China) one after another launched projects to increase capacity. The cheap cost of the high liquidity created did not only directly revitalise global production and trade but also impacted significantly on the financial markets. In the developed countries in 2003 the only considerable prosperous means were junk bonds 066

2 yurt d fl nda kota edilen (depository receipts) ve yerel hisse senetleri ciddi primler yapt lar. Brezilya ve Türkiye baflta olmak üzere riskli geliflmekte olan ülkeler bu olumlu global ortam n sa lad kolayl klardan da yararlanarak do ru (IMF ve finansal piyasalar n istekleri do rultusunda tasarrufa yönelik) politikalar izlediler ve yat r mc lar n daha düflük risk primlerini kabul etmelerini sa lad lar. Bugün yat r mc lar n sevgilisi konumuna gelen Brezilya ve Türkiye yak n zamanda yaflad klar krizin itici gücünden de çok iyi yararland lar de sadece 1 milyar dolar olan geliflmekte olan ülkelere akan portföy yat r mlar, 2003 te 92 milyar dolara f rlad. Sadece 2003 te geliflmekte olan ülke Eurobond fiyatlar ortalama yüzde 28 yükselirken, endeks baz nda Tayland borsas yüzde 117, Arjantin borsas yüzde 104, Brezilya borsas yüzde 97, Türkiye yüzde 81, Hindistan yüzde 73 kazand rd lar bafl ndaki Irak savafl bu olumlu resmi k sa bir süre için bozdu. Ancak savafl n çabuk bitmesi ve en az ndan büyük ölçe e yay lmamas, k sa süre içinde piyasalara yeniden eski canl l n getirdi. Gayri menkul, tahvil, hisse senedi ve türev enstrüman fiyatlar n patlatan bu likidite k sa zamanda emtia piyasalar na da yöneldi. Global büyümenin h zlanmas yla global emtia arz n n talebin çok alt nda kalaca öngörülünce emtia futures fiyatlar patlad ; spot fiyatlar da k sa sürede buna ayak uydurdu. Sadece 2003 y l nda bak r fiyatlar yüzde 50, pamuk fiyatlar yüzde 48, soya fasulyesi yüzde 39, alt n yüzde 20 ve gümüfl yüzde 24 yükseldi. Petrol fiyatlar n vurgulamam za san r z gerek yok. Uzakdo u da SARS, Venezuela da iç savafl, Irak ta iç savafla dönüflen sorunlu durum, Rusya daki flirket ve banka krizleri, artan petrol fiyatlar gibi normal koflullarda ciddi problem say labilecek politik ve ekonomik sorunlar bu dönemde pek önemsenmedi. ç savafl yaflanan Venezuela da bile 2003 y l nda hisse senetleri endeks baz nda yüzde 117 prim yapt. GLOBAL DENGES ZL KLERDE ARTIfi Merkez bankalar ve bütçe politikalar n n yaratt likidite ve al m gücü sayesinde yaflanan toz pembe ortam, yavafl yavafl otoritelerin söz geçiremedi i baflka kaynaklar n s k flmas yla riskler yaratmaya bafllad. Merkez bankalar yeterince para likiditesi yaratabildiler, ama örne in OPEC bu talebe uygun flekilde petrol likiditesi yaratamad. Dolay s yla baflta petrol olmak üzere emtia fiyatlar ndaki art fllar, h zla büyüyen ABD nin ikiz (hatta özel tasarruf aç da düflünülürse üçüz) aç klar ve Çin in h zla büyüyen ekonomisini dizginleyemeyip duvara çarpaca korkusu, ekonomist ve stratejistleri çok daha fazla düflündürmeye bafllad. Bu riskler, do al olarak global enflasyonu yavafl yavafl yükseltmeye bafllad (birçok ülkede toptan eflya fiyatlar ndaki art fl, tüketici enflasyonunun üzerine ç kt ). Çin döneminde dünyaya deflasyon ihraç ederken, 2003 y l sonunda enflasyon ihraç eder hale geldi. Artan ABD aç klar, dolar üzerinde de giderek artan bir bask oluflturmaya bafllad. Türkiye cari aç k tehlikesini pek önemsemez ve ne oldu u belirsiz verimlilik art fllar na güvenerek pasif that made a premium of 28 percent in USD value, developing countries instruments that are risky in terms of the their incomes for the country, Eurobonds, derivative instruments, depository receipts and local share certificates. The high risk developing countries primarily being Brazil and Turkey, by making use of the positive global climate and the relaxation it introduced, followed correct policies aiming at economising according to the wishes of the IMF and financial markets, and made the investors accept lower risk premiums. Today Brazil and Turkey have become the darlings of investors, having made good use of the driving power of the recent financial crisis they experienced. The portfolio of the investment flowing into the developing countries, which was only $1 billion in 2002, jumped to $92 billion in It was only in 2003 that developing countries Eurobond prices on average went up by 28 percent. In terms of the index the gains on the stock exchanges of Thailand was 117 percent, in Argentina 104 percent, in Brazil 97 percent, in Turkey 81 percent and in India 73 percent. At the beginning of 2003 this positive outlook was spoiled for a sort time by the Iraq War. However, since the war ended quickly and the fact that it did not spread to a wider scale soon revitalised the markets. This liquidity boosted assets, bonds, share certificates and derivative instruments in a short span of time was directed towards the emtia markets. With global growth gaining speed it was envisaged that the emtia supply would be much below demand and emtia futures prices boomed and spot prices in a short time adjusted to it. In 2003 alone, copper prices increased by 50 percent, wool by 48 percent, soya bean 39 percent, gold 20 percent and silver 24 percent. We believe there is no need to even mention oil prices. In this period the political and economic problems of the Far East, SARS, civil war in Venezuela, the situation in Iraq turning into a civil war, the company and bank crisis in Russia and the increasing oil prices that could be taken as serious problems under normal circumstances were not given much importance. Even in Venezuela, where there was a civil war in 2003, share certificates in terms of the index went up 117 percent. MARINE & COMMERCE JANUARY

3 INCREASING GLOBAL INSTABILITY The rosy climate created by high liquidity and buying power due to the central banks and budgetary policies, by slowly the squeezing other resources that the authorities could not manage, has began posing risks. While the central banks generated enough liquidity OPEC for example did not create enough oil liquidity to meet this demand. Thus initially the increasing oil price, then the increase in the emtia prices, the rapidly growing twin deficits (we can even say triplet if you consider the special savings deficit) the deficits of the US, the threat that China might not tame its rapidly growing economy and hit the wall made economist and strategists think more. kalma yolunu seçerken, artan cari aç k ABD de bile en çok tart - fl lan konu haline geldi. Özetle, mevcut büyüme h z ve ticaret hacimlerinde ortaya ç kan global dengesizliklerin ekonomik ve finansal sorunlar yarataca aç kça görülmeye bafllad. Dolay s yla: Çin baflta olmak üzere Asya ülkelerinin dolara sabitledikleri paralar n revalüe ederek rekabet gücünü zay flatmalar (ve böylece ABD nin d fl aç k sorununun azalmas ), Ve/veya ABD nin vergiler üzerinden bütçe politikas n s k laflt rmas (böylece ABD tüketiminin dizginlenmesi), Ve/veya petrol, enerji ve emtia üretiminin h zla artt r lmas, Ve/veya Avrupa n n, Çin ve Japonya n n bir flekilde iç tüketimlerini art rarak ABD nin tüketim yükünü paylaflmalar gibi baz önlemler al nabilirse dengesizlikler biraz düzelebilecek ve bu herkesi memnun eden global üretim ve ticaret art fl h z korunabilecekti. Ancak: hracattan baflka bir yolla büyük nüfusuna istihdam sa layamayan Çin, paras n revalüe etmek istemedi; ABD bask s n art rd kça da daha çok direndi. Bush un yeniden seçilmesiyle ABD nin vergiler üzerinden bütçe politikas n s k laflt rmas olas l iyice rafa kalkt. Zaten kapasitelerini iyice zorlamakta olan OPEC ve di erleri, These risks naturally made global inflation increase slowly (in many countries the wholesale inflation rates were above the consumer rates). Between China, while exporting deflation to the world, in the end of 2003 came to a stage where it was exporting inflation. The increasing US deficit started building a gradually growing pressure on the USD. While it did not pay much attention to its current deficit threat and preferred to stay passive on the issue, relying on the ambiguous productivity increases, the increasing current account deficit was the most debated issue in the US. In brief, global instability due to the current grow rate and trade volume has clearly set out the creation of economics and financial problems: Firstly China and Asian countries, by re-valuing their currency that they indexed to the USD weakened their competitive power (thus having the US decrease its foreign deficit problem), And/or the US tightening its budget policies over taxes (thus taming US consumption), And/or rapidly increasing production of oil, energy and emtia, And/or if some measures can be taken in order to have domestic consumption in Europe, China and Japan increased and thus share the consumption burden of the US the instability could be lessened a bit and this would maintain global production and the increase in trade that was pleasing all. However, China, which cannot provide employment to its large population other than through exports does not want to revalue its currency and has resisted US pressure to do so, With the re-election of George W. Bush to office the possibility of the US tightening its budget policies over the taxes been shelved, OPEC and other producers that were pushing their capacities already naturally can not rapidly increase their oil, energy and emtia outputs, Europe, China and Japan could not increase their domestic consumption due to their structural problems, increasing unemployment and their already high budget deficits and did not develop a mechanism that could create the expectation that they could do so soon. 068

4 do al olarak k sa zamanda petrol, enerji ve emtia üretimini h zla artt ramad lar. Avrupa, Çin ve Japonya yap sal sorunlar, yafll nüfuslar, artan iflsizlikleri ve zaten yüksek olan bütçe aç klar nedeniyle iç tüketimlerini art ramad lar, yak nda artabilece i beklentisini de yaratacak bir mekanizma gelifltiremediler. Sonuç olarak, masaya bir çözüm konamayaca ve global büyüme h z n n düflmeye bafllamas n n gerekti i görüldü. Global büyüme h z ise do al olarak, daha en baflta oldu u gibi ABD (ve di er ülkelerdeki merkez bankalar n n) faizlerinin artmas yla düflebilecek. Bunu öngören merkez bankalar da faiz art r mlar na h z verdiler. ngiltere ve Kanada merkez bankalar ile bafllayan faiz art r mlar na k sa süre sonra FED de kat ld ve 2004 ortas ndan itibaren gerçekten faizleri yavafl yavafl artt rmaya bafllad y l sonunda dolar faizi iki kattan fazla artarak yüzde 2.25 e ç kt E YÖNEL K GLOBAL SENARYO Bütün bu geliflmelerin fl nda bak l nca flu öngörülerde bulunmak mümkün hale geliyor: Global faizler artacak: Öncelikle artarak gelen enflasyon sinyallerine karfl merkez bankalar n n faizleri (en az ndan yavafl yavafl) daha rahat hareket alan bulabilecekleri, ekonomistler taraf ndan nötr seviyeler olarak adland r lan oranlara çektiklerini görece iz. A rl kl enflasyonist bask n n tahminlerden biraz daha fliddetli artmaya bafllad görülürse, faizlerdeki art fllar da daha da fazla olacak. Bu oranlar ABD faizlerinde yüzde 4 civar ndaki oranlara tekabül ediyor. Buraya hemen önemli bir not koyal m. Bu toz pembe ortam n yarat lmas nda bütçe aç klar n n da ne kadar önemli rol oynad n yukarda aktard k. Para politikalar terse dönerken bütçe politikalar n n pek s k laflmayaca n görece iz. Bu nedenle yük daha da fazla para politikalar na, yani merkez bankalar n n s rt na binecek. Bir not daha: Mevcut getiri ortam ndan faydalanmakta olan birçok fon yöneticisi ve stratejist, FED e (ve do al olarak Greenspan e) faizleri nötr seviyelerin alt nda b - rakmas için bask yapacak. Bunun için de enflasyonun çok As a result, it was seen that no solution could be placed on the table and that it was necessary that the global growth rate should start slowing down. The global grow rate as it was initially could have been reduced by the US (or other countries central banks) increasing their interest rates. The central banks that foresaw this gave momentum to increasing their interest rates. The interest rate increases that were started by the central banks of England and Canada were shortly followed by the Fed and, by mid 2004, interest rates slowly starting climbing. By the end of 2004, the USD interest rate rose and more than doubled, reaching 2.25 percent. THE GLOBAL SCENARIO FOR 2005 In the light of the information above it is possible to make these projections: Global interest rates will go up: First of all, in reaction to increasing inflation signals the central banks would find the freer movement area in the interest rates and we will see that they will pull to levels that economists describe as neutral. If it is seen that the inflationary pressure on oil prices is getting stronger the increase in interest rates will be higher. The interest rate level set by the US is about four percent. An important note: we have mentioned above how important the role of budget deficits in creating a rosy climate is. While the monetary policies go into reverse we will see that the budget will not be tightened up greatly. Because of this, the burden would be placed more on the monetary policies, in other words on central banks. Another important thing to note is that many of the fund managers and strategists who benefit from the current income atmosphere will apply pressure on the Fed (naturally on Greenspan) to keep interest rates below neutral levels. To support this they will provide information showing that inflation is not increasing very rapidly and that economy is not growing strongly. However, it is a great possibility that Greenspan will not give in to this pressure. He will act more like an economist and act cautiously. He would like to have a strong hand against a sudden recession that could come from oil prices and in cases of interest rate decrease he would want it to get up to levels where it can have an impact. If there is a surprise in oil prices and it goes down the increase in the interest rate could gain more speed. In parallel to the increase in the short term interest rates and the decrease in the demand that comes from the Asian countries the US ten year term reference bonds will loose value. It will be seen that the annual interest rate could get as high as %5+. However, yet again bonds would have investors lose less than share certificates. The Dollar/Euro for a while will keep at the band: Since the US central bank is not increasing interest rates enough, the resolving 070

5 h zl artmamas, ekonominin h zl büyümemesi gibi birçok veriyi ortaya koyacak. Ancak büyük olas l kla Greenspan bu bask ya yenilmeyecek. Daha çok bir ekonomist gibi hareket ederek temkinli davranacak. Petrol fiyatlar n n getirebilece i ani bir resesyon bask s na karfl koyabilmek için elinin güçlü olmas n ve faizlerin indirim halinde etki yapabilece i oranlara ç kmas n isteyecek. Petrol fiyatlar bir sürpriz olur da gerilerse faiz art fl daha da h zlanabilecek. K sa vadeli faizlerin artmas na ve Asya ülkelerinden gelen talebin azalmas na paralel olarak ABD nin 10 y l vadeli referans tahvilleri de er kaybedecek. 10 y ll k faizlerin yüzde 5+ ya kadar yükseldi i görülecek. Ama yine de tahviller, yat r mc lar na hisse senetlerinden daha az kaybettirecek. Dolar/Euro bir süre band nda seyredecek: Merkez Bankas yeteri kadar faiz artt ramad için ABD, aç klar n n çözümünü dolar n de er kaybetmesinde buldu. Oysa ABD nin as l d fl ticaret aç verdi i Asya ülkeleri paralar n sabitleyince, yük daha çok Euro ya bindi ve dolar özellikle Euro ya karfl de er kaybetti. Ancak bunun ne ABD deki aç klara yarar oldu ne de zaten yukarda detayl aç klad m z gibi, iç tüketimi zay f olup ihracatla büyüyebilen büyük Avrupa ekonomileri Euro nun daha da güçlenmesine dayanabilir. Bu nedenle bir süre band nda dolaflacak olan parite, ABD nin faiz art r mlar n h zland rmas ve/veya Çin in bask lara dayanamay p göstermelik de olsa para birimi Yuan biraz güçlendirmesiyle 1.30 u da k rabilir. Global büyüme ve ticaret hacmi yavafllayacak: Çin önderli inde global ekonomik büyüme yavafllayacak, ama durgunluk potas na girmeyecek. Yavafllama en çok Asya bölgesini etkileyecek. Çok emin olmak zor ve daha uzun vadeli bir vizyon belki ama, son y llar n globalizasyon modas n n yerini yavafl yavafl korumac l a b rakmaya bafllad n görebilece iz. Geliflmekte olan ülkelere ilgi giderek azalacak: döneminde geliflmekte olan ülkelere gelen talep geliflmifl ülkelerde faizlerin yükselmesine paralel yavafl yavafl azalacak. Örne in Eurobond piyasalar nda ülke baz nda hareketler olabilecek, ama genele yay lan bir art fl görülmeyecek. Bir kriz ortam oluflup da fiyatlar fliddetli biçimde düflmeyecek ama tafl ma getirileri kolayl kla yok olabilecek. VE TÜRK YE K saca Türkiye ye de de inelim. Türkiye bir süre daha AB beklentileri sayesinde (IMF bize göre çok önemli de il) gücünü koruyacak. Ama ister istemez yurt d fl nda artan maliyetlerden, enflasyon bask s ndan ve geliflmekte olan ülkelere azalan ilgiden nasibini almak durumunda kalacak. Bu durum, k sa vadede cari denge aç n n fonlanmas n zorlaflt raca için, ekonomi büyük olas l kla k smen (sepet baz nda) kur hareketlerinden de destek alarak so umaya bafllayacak. Merkez Bankas 2004 y l na göre daha tutucu olacak ve reel faizler biraz düflebilecek olsa da bu nominal faizlerin düflmesiyle de il, enflasyonun yükselmesiyle olacak. & Bir kriz ortam oluflup da fiyatlar fliddetli biçimde düflmeyecek ama tafl ma getirileri kolayl kla yok olabilecek. There will not be a crisis and prices will fall drastically but their income returns could easily disappear. of the US deficit has led to the USD losing value. However, as the Asian countries that the US has a foreign trade deficit with indexed their own currency, the burden of this has fallen on the Euro, and the USD eased especially against the Euro. But this has no benefits for the US deficit and neither can the European economies, that could grow through exports and have weak domestic consumption as explained above, cope with the further strengthening of the Euro. This is why for some time parity would cruise in the band with the US speeding up its interest rates and/or China not being able to resist the pressure of strengthening its currency the Yuan somewhat could break the 1.30 level. Global growth and trade volume to slow down: The global economic growth under the leadership of China will slow down but will not enter into recession. This slow down will have its greatest impact in Asia. It is difficult to be certain and this is possibly a long term projection but we will see that the trend of globalisation in recent years will slowly give way to protectionism. The interest in developing countries will gradually decrease: The demand that was given to the developing countries in the period in parallel to developed countries putting up their interest rates will slowly come down. For example, in the Eurobond market there will be movements in terms of countries but no general increase. There will not be a crisis and prices will fall drastically but their income returns could easily disappear. AND TURKEY Let us briefly cover Turkey. For some time, Turkey with the expectation of the EU (since IMF is not important according to us) will retain its power. But it would have to take the unfortunate share of soaring costs abroad, inflationary pressure and the decreasing interest in developing countries. As this in the short term would make it difficult to fund the current account deficit, there is a great possibility (in basket terms) that the economy will cool down by support of the foreign currency movements. The central bank will be more conservative in comparison to 2004 and real interest rates will lower a bit but this will not be due to the nominal interest rate fall but through inflation rising. & Dr. SARUHAN ÖZEL, Denizbank Bafl Ekonomist ve Stratejisti // Denizbank Chief Economist and Strategist MARINE & COMMERCE JANUARY