Insurance Practitioners Association (STD) 1 st International İstanbul Insurance Conference. Modeling of Earthquake Risk

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1 Insurance Practitioners Association (STD) 1 st International İstanbul Insurance Conference Modeling of Earthquake Risk M.Erdik Boğaziçi University, İstanbul

2 Earthquake Risk Assets may be people, property, profits, or other things of value. Loss is the reduction in value of an asset due to damage. Loss is measured in many ways, such as the ratio of of fatalities to total population, repair cost ratio, etc. Risk is the uncertainty of loss. Risk or Loss estimation is the quantification of the earthquake loss, and is a basic first step in managing earthquake risk. Earthquake Effects faulting, shaking intensity, liquefaction, tsunami Loss human injury, cost or repairs, business interruption, social disruption Built Environment buildings, industry, infrastructure Human Environment People, organizations, institutions, cultural heritage, finances

3 Agents of Damage landslide tsunami shaking liquefaction faulting fire faulting

4 MMI Seismic Vulnerability Two approaches: Detailed engineering model F = [K] X % damage Sa Statistical approach

5 PAST EARTHQUAKES FUTURE EARTHQUAKES?

6 Waiting Time=50 years Waiting Time=5 years RENEWAL (Time Dependent) MODEL

7 HOW WILL THE FAULT RUPTURE?

8 İSTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT Boğaziçi Üniversitesi (BU-ARC, 2002) ve Oyo International (JICA IMM, 2003) tarafından yapılmış genel kapsamlı çalışmalar İstanbul daki deprem riski hakkında bilgi sağlamış ve İstanbul Deprem Masterplanı nın hazırlamasına önayak olmuştur. Risk Belirlemeleri AB 6.ÇP LessLoss, NERIES, SAFER ve TRANSFER Projeleri ve DPT/TÜBİTAK/İBB HazTürk Projesi kapsamında geliştirilmiştir.

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12 İSTANBUL DEPREM KAYIP SENARYOSU GÜNCELLEME ÇALIŞMALARI (İBB)

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14 TSUNAMİ TEHLİKESİ İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi adına Oyo International Corp. tarafından yapılan İstanbul tsunami tehlikesi çalışmaları İstanbul da1894 ve 1509 depremlerinde dalga yükselmesinin sırasıyla 3-4 ve 6 m yi bulduğu işaret edilmiştir. Sualtı yerkaymalarından kaynaklanan tsunamiler daha lokalize, fakat daha yüksek dalgaların meydana gelmesine sebep olabilmektedir. Probabilistik Tsunami Dalgası Yüksekliği (10% / 50 Yıl)

15 TSUNAMİ RİSKİ: ETKİLENECEK BİNALAR

16 TOOL OF TRADE: EU NERIES Project: ELER

17 Istanbul Scenario Shakemap - Sesetyan Intensity (M=7.5)

18 RISK-UE Building Typology Matrix Model Building Types of HAZUS-1999 Vulnerability Index Typology Description Min Mean Max M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of... M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone M1.2 Simple stone M1.3 Massive stone M2 Adobe M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with... M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs M3.2 Masonry vaults M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls M5 Overall strengthened RC1 Concrete Moment Frames RC2 Concrete shear walls RC3 Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill walls RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls S1 Steel Moment Frames S2 Steel braced Frames S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls S4 Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls S5 Steel and RC composite system W Wood structures

19 Spectral Capacity Based Analytical Vulnerabilities

20 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR ISTANBUL The "Credible Worst Case" Scenario event: Mw=7.5 (similar to 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in magnitude and in total rupture length) on the fault segments 5, 6, 7 and 8.

21 DISTRIBUTION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS

22 DISTRIBUTION OF CASUALITIES

23 Contributors ISTANBUL TESTBED EXERCISE COMPARISON OF LOSS RESULTS (Strasser, 2008) A damage estimation exercise has been carried out using the building stock inventory and population database of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and selected European earthquake loss estimation methodologies: KOERILOSS, SELENA, ESCENARIS, SIGE and DBELA. Imperial College London Fleur STRASSER Julian BOMMER with acknowledgements to: Peter Stafford ROSE School EUCENTRE Ihsan Engin BAL Helen CROWLEY with acknowledgements to: Rui Pinho Institut Geologic de Catalunya Janira IRIZZARY Xavier GOULA with acknowledgements to: Nuria ROMEU Dipartamento di Protezione Civile Antonio LUCANTONI Fabio SABETTA with acknowledgements to: Filomena Papa Rachele Ferlito Conrad LINDHOLM with acknowledgements to: Sergio Molina-Palacios Dominik Lang KOERI Bogazici University Mustafa ERDIK Zehra CAGNAN Karin SESETYAN with acknowledgements to: Mine Betul Demircioglu Can Zulfikar Eser Durukal

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25 Istanbul Annual Probability of Occurrence of a Mw>7.2 Earthquake about 1.5-2%. About 1/8 of Nation s Total Population About 50% of the Nation s Industrial Potential About Buildings within the City The Penetration of the Compulsory Earthquake Insurance About 33 % as of 2009.

26 Building Stock Inventory Cell based Type of structure Number of stories Construction date Building Density

27 Distribution of buildings with complete damage

28 Expected losses in Istanbul

29 Probabilistic Building Losses SD-1 Median Loss SD+1 Scenario Earthquake 0,16 0,28 0,38 72 Yrs Return Prd 0,15 0,25 0, Yrs Return Prd 0,17 0,30 0, Yrs Return Prd 0,23 0,37 0, Yrs Return Prd 0,27 0,43 0, Yrs Return Prd 0,38 0,57 0,68

30 Building Losses

31 EMME: Earthquake Model for the Middle East, JTI Supported SHARE: Seismic Hazard Harmonization for Europe, EU FP7

32 GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL PROJECT

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