Kriz yönetimi. Ankara, 16 Mayıs 2015 Prof. Dr. Seyfettin Gürsel

Transkript

1 Kriz yönetimi Ankara, 16 Mayıs 2015 Prof. Dr. Seyfettin Gürsel

2 A.I da Güçlü Canlanma Çeyrekten çeyreğe yıllık büyüme ve GSYH'a katkılar 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2008(1) 2008(2) 2008(3) 2008(4) 2009(1) 2009(2) 2009(3) 2009(4) 2010(1) 2010(2) 2010(3) 2010(4) 2011(1) 2011(2) 2011(3) -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Tüketim Kamu harcamaları Yatırım Stok değişimi Net ihracat GSYH Kaynak : TÜİK, Betam. Göstergeler mevsim ve takvim etkisinden arındırılmıştır. 24/06/2015 2

3 II.a- High growth is sustainable in the short run Consumption will follow its structural growth path, moving upward Consumer Confidence Index Deposit Money Banks Credit Stocks (% of GDP) Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Corporate Credits Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 There is still room for consumer confidence to get stronger Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Consumer Loans and Individual Credit Cards Political stability perspective is likely to boost consumer confidence Credit crunch is over, credit availability is increasing, thanks to strong capital inflows Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 22/09/2010 PEI Turkey Forum 2010, İstanbul 3

4 II.a-High growth is sustainable in the short run Strong recovery of private investment will continue Capacity utilization is still low, but rapidly recovering Investors confidence came back. Political stability perspective is likely to boost investor confidence Credit crunch is over, credit availability is increasing, thanks to strong capital inflows 22/09/2010 PEI Turkey Forum 2010, İstanbul 4

5 Current Acct. Financing (Green Long Term Finance and Red Short)

6 Investment-Saving Balance (in percentage of GDP) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Private Saving Public Saving Total Saving Total Investment Total Deficit Source: Betam, Turkstat, CBRT, TDM. * Medium Term Programme Forecast, Betam s Calculations. 6

7 Fiscal Policy Source: Betam, TDM. 7

8 Budget performance Interest payments Primary Balance Budget Balance

9 Public Debt Ratio to GDP Source: Betam, TDM. * Medium Term Programme Forecast. 9

10 Public debt and real interest rate Source: TDM 10

11 Bad Loan Ratio (%) Consumer Red Business Blue

12 Per capita GDP growth and labor productivity (4) 2006(1) 2006(2) 2006(3) 2006(4) 2007(1) 2007(2) 2007(3) 2007(4) 2008(1) 2008(2) 2008(3) 2008(4) 2009(1) 2009(2) 2009(3) 2009(4) 2010(1) 2010(2) 2010(3) 2010(4) 2011(1) 2011(2) 2011(3) 2011(4) 2012(1) 2012(2) 2012(3) 2012(4) 2013(1) 2013(2) 2013(3) 2013(4) 2014(1) 2014(2) 2014(3) Average Labor Productivity Employment Ratio WAP Ratio GDP per Capita Source: Turkstat, Betam. 12

13 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Core inflation, inflation expectations and exchange rate Inflation Expectations (2 years ahead) Core Inflation (I Index) Nominal Exchange Rate of USD Source: TCMB, TDM 13

14 The Effects of the Crisis on Labor Market Effect on Labor Force (+) Effect on Employment (-) Boom in unemployment 14

15 (Bin kişi) Krizi İşsizliğin kaynakları Ocak 07 Şubat 07 Mart 07 Nisan 07 Mayıs 07 Haziran 07 Temmuz 07 Ağustos 07 Eylül 07 Ekim 07 Kasım 07 Aralık 07 Ocak 08 Şubat 08 Mart 08 Nisan 08 Mayıs 08 Haziran 08 Temmuz 08 " Ağustos 08 Eylül 08 Ekim 08 Kasım 08 Aralık 08 Ocak 09 Şubat 09 Mart 09 Nisan 09 Mayıs 09 Haziran 09 Temmuz 09 Ağustos 09 Eylül 09 Ekim 09 Kasım 09 Aralık 09 Ocak Tarım dışı işgücü değişimi* Tarım dışı istihdam değişimi Tarım dışı işsiz sayısı değişimi * İşgücündeki artış işsiz sayısını artırıcı etki yaptığından iş gücündeki artış negatif ile gösterilmiştir

16 year on year, % change The effects on Labor Force 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08-10% Male Female Total Figure 2: Non-agricultural Labor Force (year on year, % change) Source : Turkstat, betam 16

17 year on year, % change The effects on Employment 10% 5% 0% Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Female employment increased -5% Male employment decreased -10% Male Female Total Figure 3: Non-agricultural employment (year on year, % change) Source : Turkstat, betam 17

18 # of employed (in thousands) The effects on Employment Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Number of male regular/casual workers decreased initially and this is followed by decreases in female regular/casual employment Male Female Figure 4: Wage earners and casual employees (non-agriculture, year on year change) Source : Turkstat, betam 18

19 # of employed (in thousands) Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 The effects on Employment Industry Service Figure 5: Employment of male workers (year on year change) Male employment in industry decreased substantially. Source : Turkstat, betam 19

20 # of employed (in thousands) The effects on Employment Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Jun-09 May-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul Number of female own account and unpaid family workers increased dramatically Male Female Figure 7: Self employed and unpaid family workers (non-agriculture, year on year change) Source : Turkstat, betam 20

21 # of employed (in thousands) The effects on Employment Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Female employment mainly increased in service sector. Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Source : Turkstat, betam Industry Service Figure 6: Employment of female workers (year on year change) 21

22 Decomposition of unemployment - Female (YoY change) EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 22

23 Decomposition of unemployment - Male (YoY change) EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 23

24 Diff in Diff Education Difference in formal employment changes (in thousands) EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 24

25 B.I.b. İşgücünün Yapısal Belirleyenleri 2. Eğitim seviyelerine göre işgücüne katılım oranları (2010, kent) 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 72.7% 83.8% 70.9% 60.0% 66.4% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 33.3% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 14.6% Lise altı Lise Yüksek Öğretim Erkek Kadın Kaynak: BETAM, TÜİK 24/06/

26 (bin kişi) B.III.a. Kayıtdışılık Ekonomideki durgunluğun kayıtlı ve kayıtdışı ücretli, maaşlı ve yevmiyeli çalışanlar üzerindeki etkisi (Geçen yılın aynı ayına göre değişim) 1,100 1, Oca Nis.06 Tem.06 Eki.06 Oca.07 Nis.07 Tem.07 Eki.07 Oca.08 Nis.08 Tem.08 Eki.08 Oca.09 Nis.09 Tem.09 Eki.09 Oca.10 Nis.10 Tem.10 Eki.10 Oca.11 Nis.11 Tem.11 Kayıtdışı ücretli, maaşlı ve yevmiyeli Kayıtlı ücretli, maaşlı ve yevmiyeli Kaynak: BETAM, TÜİK 24/06/

27 B.III.a. Ümidi kırılan işçi etkisi ve İşsizlik Erkek ve kadın ümidi kırılan işçiler ve İşsizlik (Geçen yılın aynı ayına göre değişim) Kaynak: BETAM, TÜİK 24/06/

28 GDP-Employment elasticity 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 2014* GDP Employment Source:Turkstat, Betam. *First Half of

29 II.b- Low growth regime in the medium term Turkish industry suffers from low competition power due to Relatively developed welfare state (high labor costs) Bad quality of tax system (indirect tax weight too high, no room for cost reduction) Insufficient high tech content of exports (poor human capital at average) TL prone to appreciation (stability paradox) CAB adjustments done through exchange rate shocks, lowering average growth rate 29

30 II.b- Low growth regime in the medium term Low growth is unavoidable because, Domestic demand driven growth will reach its limit closing the output gap; so TRCB policy rate will start to increase. As long as price stability is not achieved monetary policy will be tight and interest rate differential cannot be reduced; so hot money inflows, appreciating TL, will be the main tendency. Until the price stability is reached, exchange rate cannot be used as a competitiveness tool; so Net Exports contribution to growth will remain negative. Widening CAD will provoke an exchange rate shock, sooner or later causing more pressure on the interest rates. A severe correction of ISE ballooned by high growth optimism is very likely to occur after general elections. 22/09/2010 PEI Turkey Forum 2010, İstanbul 30

31 III. Long term growth perspectives Making Turkish industry more competitive needs: Cost reducing reforms (labor market, energy saving, market efficiency..) Productivity enhancing reforms (education, R&D) Policies to develop new brands and new goods to export A more stable real exchange rate A powerful government within a stable democratic regime 22/09/2010 PEI Turkey Forum 2010, İstanbul 31

32 Long term growth perspectives This export boom involves political as well as strategic issues; Partly out of control of Turkey (embargo on Iran, stability of Iraq) Partly implying very painful and risky strategic choices for Turkey (How to do strategic partnerships with these countries without loosing EU perspective and Nord Atlantic Alliance) 22/09/2010 PEI Turkey Forum 2010, İstanbul 32