Geothermal Drilling in Turkey; Güney Yıldızı Petrol (GYP)

Transkript

1 Geothermal Drilling in Turkey; Costs & Benefits Fatih Güler Güney Yıldızı Petrol (GYP) İzmir - 7 Haziran 2016

2 CONTENTS Geothermal Energy and Drilling Market Position Geothermal Drilling Dependance on Oil & Gas Market Geothermal Drilling Market in Turkey Recomendations

3 GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2014

4 1973 and 2013 FUEL SHARES

5 INSTALLED POWER CAPACITY OF TURKEY BY FUEL TYPES FUEL TYPES 30 NİSAN 2016 SONU İTİBARİYLE KURULU GÜÇ KATKI SANTRAL SAYISI MW % ADET FUEL-OİL + NAFTA + MOTORİN 446,0 06 0,6 17 YERLİ KÖMÜR(TAŞ KÖMÜRÜ + LİNYİT + ASFALTİT) 9.848,4 13,2 30 İTHAL KÖMÜR 6.064,2 8,1 9 DOĞALGAZ + LNG ,5 5 28,9 240 YENİLEN.+ATIK+ATIKISI+PİROLİTİK YAĞ 385,0 0,5 70 ÇOK YAKITLILAR KATI+SIVI 667,1 0,9 23 ÇOK YAKITLILAR SIVI+D.GAZ 3.684,0 4,9 46 JEOTERMAL 647,9 0,9 22 HİDROLİK BARAJLI ,2 26,0 113 HİDROLİK AKARSU 6.820,8 9,1 453 RÜZGAR 4.648,1 6,2 117 TERMİK (LİSANSSIZ) 59,7 0,1 27 RÜZGAR (LİSANSSIZ) 8,0 0,0 15 GÜNEŞ (LİSANSSIZ) 409,7 0,5 556 TOPLAM ,7 100, Source: TEİAŞ-2016

6 IMPORTANT GEOTHERMAL MARKETS ANNOUNCED PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITIONS and TARGETS Source: Geothermal Energy Association-2015

7 CRUCIAL TIME FOR A GEOTHERMAL PROJECT; DRILLING A SUCCESSFUL WELL Source : ESMAP 2012

8 SHARE OF DRILLING COST IN A GEOTHERMAL POWER PROJECT (Average of 30%) 30% DRILLING POWER PLANT AND OTHERS 70%

9 TOTAL COST OF A 20 MW GEOTHERMAL PLANT: MM Euro EXPL. & DEV. DRILLING: 60 MM Euro (after)

10 CONTRACT TYPES AND DRILLING COST COUNTRY CONTRACT TYPE COST / DEPTH 1000 $ / METER GERMANY ITALY FRANCE DAY RATE 1000 m / 1,5 LUMP SUM METER RATE 2000 m / 2 DAY RATE DAY RATE LUMP SUM 3000 m / m / 3 5 TURKEY DAY RATE LUMP SUM METER RATE 1000 m / 0, m / 1 1, m / 1, m / 1,5 2,5

11 TYPICAL GEOTHERMAL WELL PROFILES IN TURKEY

12 AVERAGE DRILLING DAYS IN ICELAND

13 TYPICAL DRILLING DAYS IN AYDIN AREA DEPTH DAYS DAYS

14 BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

15 U.S. ACTIVE ROTARY RIG COUNT and OIL PRICE

16 NON-US ACTIVE ROTARY RIG COUNT NON-US ACTIVE ROTARY RIG COUNT and OIL PRICE

17 Source : MIT 2009 MIT COMPOSITE DRILLING INDEX vs CRUDE OIL and GAS PRICES

18 GEOTHERMAL DRILLING COST INDEX vs CRUDE OIL PRICES Total dependence to crude oil prices Geothermal drilling sector does not create a strong market of its own. Source : Report on Geothermal Drilling, P Dumas (EGEC) and others

19 CRUDE OIL PRICES vs GEOTHERMAL DRILLING RIG RATES IN TURKEY Follows the universal pattern , OIL & GAS 100,00 80, GEOTHERMAL 60, , % DECREASE IN DAY RATE 20,00 0 0, HP HP OIL PRICE $ RIG RATE $ YEARS

20 IS PAST A KEY TO FUTURE??? Oil prices are expected to rise above 60 $/bbl by 2017 Drilling rates and active rig counts will be rising accordingly

21 ACTIVE GYP RIGS IN YEAR % in SE Turkey for oil and gas WORKING MAINTANENCE WORKOVER STACK

22 ACTIVE GYP RIGS IN YEAR % in Western Turkey for geothermal e WORKING MAINTANENCE WORKOVER STACK

23 CURRENT GEOTHERMAL FIELDS AND POWER PLANTS IN TURKEY İl/İlçe Sh Saha Adı Firma İşletme Kapasitesi i (Mwe) Denizli/Sarayköy Kızıldere 95 Zorlu Elek. Üret. Manisa/Alaşehir Alaşehir 45 Denizli/Sarayköy Kızıldere Bereket Enerji Üret. 6,85 Aydın/Germencik Ömerbeyli Gürmat Elek. Üret. 162,3 Aydın/Germencik Hıdırbeyli/Bozköy Maren 92 Aydın/Kuyucak Pamukören Çelikler Jeot. Enerji 67,53 22,51 Aydın/Germencik Gümüşköy Gümüşköy Jeot. Enerji 13,2 Manisa/Alaşehir Alaşehir Türkerler Jeot. Enerji 24 Aydın/Sultanhisar Salavatlı Menderes Geot. Elek. 51,45 Çanakkale/Ayvacık Tuzla Tuzla Jeot. Enerji 7,5 Çanakkale Babadere MTN Enerji 8 Aydın Yılmazköy Kipaş Enerji 24 Denizli/Sarayköy Tosunlar Akça 3,81 Aydın Umurlu Karkey 12 Toplam Kurulu Güç (MWe) 635 Akkuş ve Alan, 2016

24 POTENTIAL GROWTH IN GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANTS IN TURKEY MTA Study: MW Başel, Serpen, Satman: MW (P10)

25 NEAR TERM PROJECTION FOR DRILLING IF MTA PROJECTION IS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION; =550 MW (550/10)X6=330 WELLS FOR 550 MW 330/4=85 WELLS / YEAR BY 2020 APPROXIMATELY RIGS ARE OPERATING FOR GEOTHERMAL IN 2016

26 WHY WOULD DRILLERS TEND TO SWITCH TO OIL MARKET, THEN?? HIGHER PRICES IN OIL & GAS SECTOR LESSER RISK AND INTERNAL COST ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTRACTORS IN OIL & GAS SECTOR...AS OPPOSED TO GEOTHERMAL DRILLING CONDITIONS SUCH AS; High Temperature Corrosive Fluids (CO2, H2S And Acids) Abrasive Formations Lost Circulation High Solid Content

27 RECOMMENDATIONS & CONCERNS CURRENT DRILLING RIG RATES AND SERVICE COSTS MAKE MARKET CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR GEOTHERMAL OPERATORS. OPERATORS SHOULD UTILIZE THE LOW DAY RATES IN THEIR ADVANTAGE AT MAXIMUM CAPACITY $/DAY RATES FOR A HP RIG MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE IN OR AFTER LOW PRICE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVENTUALLY CREATE DIFFICULTIES FOR CONTRACTORS IN PROVIDING; QUALITY & SUSTAINABILITY...

28 THANK YOU Sondaj sektörune uzun yıllar emek veren Petrol Yük.Mühendisi Sn. İbrahim Yanıkömer anısına