Enerji Koridoru Türkiye Doç. Dr. Yurdakul Yiğitgüden ODTÜ Mezunları Derneği 28.3.2009, Ankara
Eneri Koridoru Türkiye Türkiye nin birincil enerji dengesi Hazar Bölgesi ve Türkiye BTC VE SCP Türkiye nin Boru hatları Avrupa nın doğalgaz talebi Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa ya gaz taşınması Güney Avrupa Gaz Ringi Nabucco ve Avrupa nın gaz tedarikçileri
250 Yerli enerji üretimi ve Birincil Enerji Tüketimi Kaynak: ETKB, 2007 (27.5 /107.6 Mtoe) 200 150 100 Production Demand 50 0 1980 1990 2000 2007 2010 2020
Kaynaklara göre Birincil Enerji Talebi (2007, 107.6 Mtoe) Kaynak: ETKB % Coal Oil 32% 8% 0% Nat. Gas 29% 31% Hydro+Solar+Geot hermal+wind+oth ers
THE CASPIAN REGION AND EAST WEST ENERGY CORRIDOR Strenghten the independence and prosperity of the new Caspian States Encourage market economy and democratic developments Stabilise the region by building the economic linkages between the countries Help to diversify and secure the energy supply of Turkey and her partners Increase the business opportunities for Turkish Companies
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline Project DELTA HESS KHAZAR LIMITED INPEX
South Caucasus Pipeline Source: EBRD
Pipelines of Turkey (Source: Botaş)
European Energy Demand(EU-25) mtoe European Energy and Transport Trends to 2930 update 2005, EU Commission 700 600 500 400 300 200 Solid fuels Oil N.Gas Nuclear Renewables 100 0 2000 2010 2020
Indigenous Natural Gas Production and Imports(EU-25) mtoe European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 update 2005, EU Commission 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Production Imports
GAS TO EUROPE
SOUTH EUROPEAN GAS RING 7 July 2000 28 March 2002 Concluding Statement signed between European Commission, Turkey and Greece MOU between BOTAS and DEPA 23 Feb 2003 IGA between Turkey and Greece 3 July 2005 18 Nov 2007 Contruction start of the TGI Official inauguration of the TGI 4 Nov 2006 11 June 2008 IGA between Greece and Italy Formation of the IGI Poseidon SA
Turkey-Greece Natural Gas Interconnector Project İstanbul (Gümülcine) Kipi / İpsala Tekirdağ Ambarlı Pendik (Dedeağaç) Marmara Sea Muallim Kızılcaterzi Değirmencik Hersek Bursa Çanakkale Karacabey Turkey-Greece Natural Gas Pipeline Turkish Section: 210 km(17 km under the sea), Greek Section: 86 km Diameter: 36 inch, Capacity: 7 bcm (expansion to 11bcm) Source: BOTAŞ
Nabucco Gas Pipeline Project Source:OMV
A brief history of Nabucco pipeline project 15 Jul 1998: MoU, 2. Turkish-Austrian Joint Energy Commission in Ankara, 20 Nov 2001: MoU, 3. Turkish-Austrian Joint Energy Commission, Vienna, meeting with Federal Minister Dr. Bartenstein, Feb 2002: Meetings between Botas and OMV Erdgas, leading to the Nabucco project, has been initiated. 22 May 2002: Cooperation Protocoll between Botaş and OMV. 11 Oct 2002: Cooperation agreement, Bulgargaz, Transgaz, MOL join the project. 2003-2004: 2004: Market Study and Technical Feasibility Study 24 Jun 2004: Nabucco Co. Founded, 28 Jun 2005: J.-V. Agreement signed by the five Nabucco partners, 26 Dec 2007: RWE became the sixth shareholder of the consortium, 8 Feb 2008: Nabucco appoints Penspen for detailed technical planning 29 May 2008: CAPEX increase from 5 to 7.9 bill. 26-2727 Jan 2009: Budapest Summit
Nabucco gas supply sources Source: OMV
Nabucco için doğalgaz nereden gelir? Şahdeniz Faz II, 5-10 milyar metreküp Mısır (Suriye üzerinden), 3-5milyar metreküp, Irak, İran, Türkmenistan Katar Mısır (off-shore).
Nabucco da (mutlu?) sona doğru Türkiye nin bir stratejisi var mı? Transit Rejimi Üretici ülkelerle ilgili sorunlar Nabucco şirket yapısı ve siyasi destek Talepte beklenen azalma Alternatif projeler ve LNG
Asgari alım taahütleri (AAT) bazında doğalgaz arz-talep dengesi (milyon standart metreküp) Kaynak: Botas, 2005; Yiğitgüden:2006 YILLAR AAT ne göre Arz Toplam Talep 2006 28.429 29.526-1.097 2007 32.602 31.647 955 2008 35.649 34.154 1.495 2009 38.382 37.771 611 2010 39.857 42.813-2.957 2011 41.282 47.200-5.918 Arz-Talep Farkı 2012 37.350 48.323-10.973 2013 37.350 50.950-13.601 2014 36.131 51.464-15.333 2015 33.286 52.982-19.695 2016 33.286 54.511-21.225 2017 33.286 56.062-22.776 2018 33.286 57.632-16.841 2019 33.286 60.165-26.878 2020 33.286 61.779-28.493
Present Natural Gas Exporters and their Supply Potential to Europe-34 (bcm) Source:EU ENCOURAGED Project 2006, OME, CEDİGAZ) Country 2005 2010 2020 Russia 139 166 196 Norway 81 94 95 Algeria 57 81 110 Nigeria 11 21 36 Qatar 5 36 60 Egypt 5 23 28 Libya 5 12 25 Oman 2 2 2 Trinidad&T. 1 6 6 Total 306 441 558
Future Natural Gas Exporters and their Supply Potential to Europe-34 (bcm) Source:EU ENCOURAGED Project 2006, OME, CEDİGAZ) Country 2005 2010 2020 Iran 0 0 35 Azerbaijan 0 0 (?) 13 Yemen 0 6 6 Irak 0 0 5 Angola 0 0 2 Kazakhstan 0 0 0 (?) Turkmenistan 0 0 0 (?) Uzbekistan 0 0 0 Total 0 6 61
Major Pipeline Projects to Europe (Source:EU ENCOURAGED Project 2006, OME) Project Nord Stream From Russia To Capacity (bcm) Investment (bill. ) Start-up Germany 27.5 (+27.5) ~7.4 2011 Langeled Norway UK 22-2424 ~1.0 2007 Medgas Algeria Spain 8-10 ~1.3 2008 GALSI Algeria Italy 8-10 ~1.2 2012 IGI Greece Italy 8-10 ~1.0 2011 Nabucco Turkey Austria 25-30 ~7.9 2014(?) Total 98.5-139 ~19.8
Nabucco nasıl gerçekleşir? Türkiye ye düşen görevler Anlaşılabilir ve uygulanabilir bir strateji, ETKB bünyesinde bir çalışma grubu, Kurumlar arası koordinasyon, Doğalgaz piyasasının işler hale getirilmesi, Transit rejimine işlerlik kazandırılması, AB ve ABD yetkilileri ile üretici ülkelerle periyodik temaslar, Boru hattı için gerekli anlaşmaların imzalanması.
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